2019 Arc De Triomphe Preview and Tip by Dave Stevos

This year’s Arc is all about one horse, hat trick seeking Enable. The Queen of the racetrack held on by a whisker from Sea Of Class last year but tragic circumstances mean we won’t get to see the rematch. Bookies and punters alike are sweet on the daughter of Nathaniel and she is odds on to win the race for a 3rd time. However, she may not have it all her own way with the likes of Magical, Japan and Waldgeist in the field. You can check out Dave Stevos thoughts on each of the runners in our in depth 2019 Arc de Triomphe preview below…

2019 Arc De Triomphe Preview: The Main Contenders

Enable

Trainer: John Gosden

Jockey: Frankie Dettori

Odds: 8/11 Unibet

Enable is without question the best mare of her generation. It is a credit to connections that the 5yo is still racing. Many owners would have retired her to stud after her narrow win in this last year, but she is back for another go. She has had three runs this year, beating Magical twice and Crystal Ocean. The first two wins were by narrow margins, but her last victory at York was by almost 3L from Magical.

She has had only 14 runs during her stellar career, winning 13 of them. 10 of those wins were at Group 1 level and she really is the horse of a lifetime. I don’t think any true racing fan would begrudge her a history making 3rd Arc win. On all known form she should do it. However, she was hanging on desperately in this last season and at the prices, I will be taking her on. It will be an amazing achievement if she does manage to do it, but fairy tales don’t happen too often in racing.

Japan

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien

Jockey: Ryan Moore

Odds: 6/1 Betfair

On a line through Crystal Ocean, Japan has nothing to find with Enable. This son of Galileo has gone from strength to strength since his narrow Epsom Derby defeat. He has won three on the bounce, the last two coming at G1 level. He showed he had speed as well as stamina when winning at 10f last time and stepping back up to 12f should be in his favour. Japan has winning course and distance form in the book too, so he does tick a lot of boxes.

He is only a 3yo and that bodes well for his chances as 12 of the 19 winners since 2000 have been that age. Surprisingly, this is one of the few major middle distance races that Aidan O’Brien hasn’t dominated. Ballydoyle have only won it on 2 occasions, Found in 2016 and the brilliant Dylan Thomas in 2007. Japan certainly has the raw talent to win a race like this and he will have plenty of supporters at 6/1.

Sottsass

Trainer: J-C Rouget

Jockey: Cristian Demuro

Odds: 7/1 Ladbrokes

Sottsass is a horse that many shrewd judges fancy for the 2019 Arc. This 3yo son of Siyouni has looked much improved this season, winning all three starts. He won a 10f Listed heat by 6.5L on his second run back and connections stepped him straight up in class. Sottsass proved them right by landing a Group 1 at Chantilly, beating Persian King by 2L. He then obliged in a weak enough looking G2 here over 12f, justifying very short odds.

This is a very tough race to step back up in class in and while his win over Persian King looks good on paper, it could easily be argued that he didn’t stay the 12f when they clashed. He only beat Mohawk by 1.5L last time out and that is not Arc winning form. For what he has actually achieved his odds look too short at 7/1. For that reason, he is overlooked.  

Magical

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien

Jockey: Donnacha O’Brien

Odds: 12/1 Betway

If Enable is the Queen, then Magical is the Princess patiently waiting to inherit the crown. Enable has inflicted 3 of Magical’s last 4 defeats, including 2 this season. Magical has got to within a length of Enable on 2 of those occasions but the gap increased to almost 3L when they last met at York. Aidan O’Briens talented 4yo daughter of Galileo would have won 8 of her last 9 only for Enable, her only other defeat coming against Crystal Ocean.

A three time Group 1 winner, Magical proved she was as good as ever when landing the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown last time (10f good). All her recent winning form has come at that trip, though she definitely stays 12f. She just bumped into an exceptional horse the last couple of times she ran over that distance. It is hard to see her beating Enable, but she is good enough to beat the rest on her day. 12/1 looks far too big and Magical represents good e/w value at those odds.

Ghaiyyath

Trainer: Charlie Appleby

Jockey: William Buick

Odds: 12/1 Boylesports

This son of Dubawi is extremely hard to evaluate. The handicapper was evidently very impressed by his German G1 win last time. Given that he won by 14L it was hard not to be, but is he really that good? He had a couple of useful German Group 1 winners in behind but those animals are nowhere near the class of horse he will be competing against at Longchamp.

The form of that Baden-Baden race has not worked out either with 5 of the next 6 home all failing to win next time out. This horse is probably better judged on his 3rd at Longchamp in a Group 1 when he was no match for Waldgeist. He won’t get as easy a lead here as he did  in Germany and that run could turn out to be an outlier. He could go and prove me wrong and hack up, but I can’t see him even beating Waldgeist, let alone Enable, and he is discounted.

Waldgeist

Trainer: Andre Fabre

Jockey: Pierre-Charles Boudot

Odds: 20/1 Bet365

When I first looked at the odds for this race I had to do a double take when I saw Waldgeist’s price. This 5yo can be backed at odds of 20/1 with Bet365, a crazy price in my view. He has looked better than ever this year and he has form that ties in closely with Enable (and Magical). This son of Galileo warmed up for this with a facile Group 2 win over the Arc C&D. He previously ran a huge race at Royal Ascot to finish 3rd behind Enable (12f gd/sft). He has only 2L to find with her on that form and he was given too much to do by his jockey. I think he should have finished a lot closer and it was the same in this race in 2018.

Enable had a dream passage in the Arc last year, but Waldgeist most certainly did not. He was tight for room on the inner and had to wait for daylight. When it did appear he finished really well and he was only 1.5L behind Enable at the finish. If this horse can avoid trouble this year and get a clear run, he could be the one to give the favourite most to think about. 20/1 is an absolutely massive price and Waldgeist is definitely the value bet in the 2019 Arc de Triomphe.

2019 Arc De Triomphe Preview: The Best Of The Rest

It is 20/1 bar the rest and it is hard to see any of the outsiders making an impact. Of those at massive prices, Soft Light has an interesting profile. He is as big as 150/1 with William Hill but he has been running very well in defeat. He has stayed on strongly in the closing stages on 3 of his last 4 starts and if he gets a strong pace to aim at here he could sneak into the first 5 or 6.

2019 Arc De Triomphe Preview: The Value Lies With Waldgeist

On all known form, Enable should make history and become the first horse to win 3 Arcs. She is the deserved odds on favourite and she has the assistance of the best jockey in the world. However, as we stated earlier she was hanging on for dear life last season and she is a year older now.

If Enable does fluff her lines, Waldgeist could be the one to benefit. He should have finished closer to John Gosden’s charge at Ascot, and the same could be said about him in the Arc last year. If Pierre Charles Boudot can get a clear passage Waldgeist has the ability to have a big say in this race. 20/1 looks way too big and at those odds he is the each way selection.

2019 Arc De Triomphe Preview and Tip: Waldgeist e/w @ 20/1