2019 Boxing Day Tips: Kempton and Leopardstown

After a slow start for us last weekend at Ascot we finished well with a couple of nice places. Got Away ran a strange sort of race, jumping and travelling strongly but finishing weakly. Maybe she needs another run or two from a fitness perspective. The defection of Paisley Park left the Long Walk Hurdle wide open but though she ran well, Papagana just wasn’t good enough. Acting Lass ran a blinder, grabbing 2nd for us at 12/1. Mr Valentine also ran a cracker to grab 3rd at 14/1 (advised 18/1), despite meeting all sorts of trouble in running. The Festive action kicks off on Thursday at Leopardstown and Kempton. Check out Dave Stevos’ free 2019 Boxing Day Tips and preview for all live ITV and RTE races below…

1.10 Leopardstown – Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2)

The first live Free To Air race in Ireland on St Stephens’ Day is a Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle. This 16f contest is for 3yos and favourites haven’t fared well in recent years. Only 2 of the last 6 have won, with winners at 14/1, 12/1 and 33/1 during that time. The betting is tighter than usual this year and the one I like at odds of 8/1 is Clemencia. Brendan Duke is never afraid to tell people when he thinks he has a good animal and he has been bullish about this son of Pour Moi.

The first time tongue tie worked wonders at Cork as he hosed up by 15L. He had 2/5 fav Pasley way back in 2nd and he jumped very nicely, particularly over the last two hurdles. A Wave Of The Sea chased home Cerberus last time and he is a worthy favourite. Aspire Tower is another one with claims, but at the prices Clemencia makes most appeal. At odds of 8/1 he is the each way selection in what should be a cracker of a race.

2019 STEPHEN’s DAY TIPS LEOPARDSTOWN: CLEMENCIA E/W @ 8/1

Boxing Day Tips ITV: 1.20 Kempton – Novices’ Handicap Chase (Class 3)

A fairly trappy looking Class 3 Novices’ Handicap Chase kicks off the Festive action on ITV. A field of 12 will go to post for this 20.5f contest and a case can be made for quite a few. One that looks potentially very well handicapped off bottom weight is Mr McGo. This 8yo son of Touch Of Land is lightly raced for his age but he was a good novice hurdler. He won a pair of races in Nov 2016/Jan 2017 and was thought good enough to compete in a Grade 2. MrMcGo was well beaten in that race and finished in midfield in a Grade 3 handicap at Aintree off 136.

He then had almost 2 years off before returning in late 2018 and failing to complete in two minor chase events. However, he has shown a bit more spark on his last two runs, including over today’s trip at Bangor. He was a decent 2nd on heavy, beat 6L, off 121 and he again ran well to be 3rd over 24f at that track last time out. The drop back to 20.5f on this flat track could really suit and Lorcan Murtagh’s 3lb claim offsets the fact he is a pound out of the handicap. Donald McCain has a good frame hitting strike rate at Kempton (50% from 44 runners). At odds of 25/1 Mr McGo should give each way backers a run for their money off a feather weight.

2019 BOXING DAY TIPS KEMPTON: MR MCGO E/W @ 25/1

2019 Boxing Day Tips: 1.45 Leopardstown – Novice Handicap Hurdle (0-123)

If you thought the last race was tricky, it’s nothing on this 26 runner handicap hurdle for novices. It is 8/1 the field and the one I like at a decent price is Jon Ess. This is a horse I have watched for quite some time and I tipped him in a maiden here last season. He ran well without threatening (8th of 20) and he has run some solid races over timber (and on the flat) since.  He is only 4lb higher than when beat a neck on his handicap hurdle debut at Fairyhouse (16f gd/yld).

Jon Ess has also run well in a number of maiden hurdles and the more the ground dries out, the better it will be for him. It is currently officially soft at Leopardstown but there is no rain forecast and it is a track that dries out very quickly. If conditions turn out to be testing it won’t be too Jon Ess’ liking. However, if it is yielding or better he will be fine and even a repeat of his maiden run here last Xmas could be good enough to see him in the frame. At odds of 25/1 Jon Ess is the each way pick in a wide open contest. Make sure to take advantage of any extra place specials if you have an e/w bet.

2019 STEPHEN’s DAY TIPS LEOPARDSTOWN: JON ESS E/W @ 25/1 NB 6 places

1.55 Kempton – Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

This Grade 1 24f race has an illustrious roll call of previous winners. Coneygree, La Bague Au Roi and Black Corton have all won it in recent years and this looks another excellent renewal. Black Op is the current joint market leader but he has yet to score beyond 21f. His two runs at 3 miles under rules don’t exactly give much confidence that he gets the trip. However, if he is going to stay the distance his best chance to do it is at a speed track like Kempton. I’d rather just watch him though at odds of just 3/1.

Slate House is battling for favouritism and he has looked rejuvenated this season. He won as he liked on his seasonal comeback at Cheltenham and was a faller when still going well on his next start there. Both those runs came at 20f on heavy and soft, but he scored over 23.5f last time. That was a very weak race though and it was hard work for him.

The unbeaten Danny Whizzbang and Master Tommytucker add further intrigue and to be honest, it is hard to find a betting angle in the race. Jarveys Plate appeals most of those at bigger odds but he was bitterly disappointing last time. With only 2 places for each way bets, this is a race I’ll just watch with a view to the future. No bet.

2019 BOXING DAY TIPS KEMPTON: NO BET

2019 Stephen’s Day Tips RTE2: 2.20 Leopardstown – Novice Chase (Grade 1)

Only five novice chasers will line up at the start for this 17f Grade 1 Novice Chase. This looks a straight match between Laurina and Fakir D’oudairies. The former is priced up at 5/4 while Fakir is a 6/4 shot. Both are dropping back in trip by 3f after easy wins over 20f last time. Laurina scored by 8L in a Chase at Gowran, while Fakir D’oudairies landed a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse. He benefited from the fall of Samcro that day and ended up 22L ahead of the useful Ronald Pump. Joseph O’Brien’s charge scored at Navan over 17f on his previous start so he has recent form at this trip in the book.

All of Laurina’s best recent form has come over 20f so the drop back in trip is more of a worry for her. She was aimed at the Champion Hurdle last year but could only finish 4th, beat 17L for the win. On drying ground she may not have the toe for this trip and I think Fakir D’oudairies should be favourite. Royal Rendezvous and Notebook both have solid form at the distance and could battle it out for minor money, but Fakir D’oudairies looks the most likely winner.

2019 BOXING DAY TIPS LEOPARDSTOWN: FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES @ 6/4

Boxing Day Tips ITV: 2.30 KEMPTON – CHRISTMAS HURDLE (Grade 1)

The Champion Hurdle picture is so unclear a handicap winner off 127 at Ascot last weekend was touted as a potential contender. However, if you are looking for festival clues you are a lot more likely to find them in this race. Ten will go to post and last year’s winner Verdana Blue is back to defend her crown. The more the ground dries out the better her chance will be, particularly as she gets weight from the boys. Fusil Raffles is the favourite after his workmanlike win at Wincanton.

Many experts were waxing lyrical about his work preceding that race but it was an underwhelming display. He could well take a big step forward and his win at Punchestown looks strong now. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise were he to win this but at the prices he is not for me. Epatante, like Verdana Blue, also gets a 7lb allowance but this represents a big step up in class. She has winning course form in the book, which is a plus, but her odds are short enough given her overall profile.

Ch’tibello’s connections are confident of a big run after his fine effort at Cheltenham. He has just over a length to find with Ballyandy on that run, but that horse was race fit. If Ch’tibello comes on for that run, which he should, he may well turn that form around. The return to slightly better ground should suit too. If he strips fitter for his comeback run, he has the credentials to run a huge race. He was 3rd behind Yanworth and The New One in this back in 2016 and he could improve on that here. Odds of 11/1 look too big and he is the each way NAP of the day.  

2019 BOXING DAY TIPS: CH’TIBELLO E/W @ 11/1 NAP

RTE2 Stephen’s Day Tips: 2.55 Leopardstown – Handicap Chase (0-140)

The last live race of the day on RTE2 on Thursday is a 16 runner 17f handicap chase. The one I like at a decent each way price here is Drumconnor Lad. Trained by Curragh handler Adrian Keatley, this son of Winged Love ran a blinder last time at Cork. He was up with the pace all the way under Donal McInerney and he just missed out on 2nd. Drumconnor Lad was only 1.25L behind the winner Powersbomb and it marked a welcome return to form for the 8yo. He was giving the McMahon horse 2lb that day, but he gets 4lb here, a 6lb swing.

Adrian Heskin takes over in the plate and he is very effective from the front, as he showed on The Worlds End last weekend. The handicapper gave him 2lb for his Cork effort but he remains 3lb below his last handicap winning mark of 129. The drying ground should be in his favour and he has placed bumper form at the track. Hopefully his last run boosted his confidence and at odds of 16/1 he is worth chancing each way for small stakes.

2019 BOXING DAY TIPS: DRUMCONNOR LAD E/W @ 16/1 (5 PLACES)

Boxing Day Tips ITV: 3.05 Kempton – King George VI Chase (Grade 1)

They are saving the best live race until last on ITV this Boxing Day. The King George is the feature but disappointingly only 6 have stood their ground. That is a real pain for those who prefer each way betting (like myself!) but while there is a lack of numbers there is no shortage of quality. The lowest rated horse in the field is Footpad (165) while the highest rated is Cyrname (177). The latter is trained by Paul Nicholls and he beat the mighty Altior last time. That was over 21f and his previous win over Waiting Patiently (17L) is rock solid form too.

This will be the son of Nickname’s first try at 3 miles and his supporters will hope his sire has had more influence on his stamina than his dam. If he is going to get 3 miles, it will be at Kempton and he didn’t look like he was stopping at the finish at Ascot last time. If he gets loose on the front he could be hard to peg back.

Tizzard’s Charge Has Staying Power

His main rival in the market is Lostintranslation and his stamina is not in doubt. His backers will hope that Cyrname sets this race up for him by going too quickly in front. Colin Tizzard’s son of Flemensfirth has looked a class act since winning a Grade 1 at Aintree and he won easier than the margin suggests at Haydock last time (25.5f gd/sft). Just like Cyrname, Lostintranslation will get his ideal ground at Kempton too.

The only issue is whether a track like Kempton will suit this horse. On decent ground especially the emphasis tends to be on speed rather than stamina and the latter is most definitely this fella’s strong suit. If Cyrname does see out the trip, he may prove too fast for the Tizzard horse here but if they meet at Cheltenham in the Spring the result would probably be different. Given the doubts about the suitability of the track, he is overlooked at 15/8.

Clan Has Course Form In The Book

All of the hype leading up to this race has concerned the top two in the betting. However, last year’s winner Clan Des Obeaux has already proved he is at his best on this track. This is likely to be his Gold Cup and I was surprised to see Harry Cobden jumping ship. Sam Twiston Davies probably can’t believe his luck, picking up a spare ride like this in such a massive race.

He beat the re-opposing Thistlecrack in this last year by 1.5L but it was a more decisive victory than the margin suggests. He can confirm that form again and he will not give up his crown easily. Unlike his two main market rivals he is proven over C&D and conditions will be ideal for him again this year. Of those at the top of the betting he undoubtedly represents the value at 9/2.

Best Of The Rest

Of the remainder, Thistlecrack would be a popular winner and last year’s runner up is surely overpriced at 18/1. He pushed crack staying hurdler Paisley Park all the way last time and if there was three places available he would be a solid each way bet. Footpad had the speed to win a pair of Grade 1 two mile heats as a novice and Mullins has long had the belief he could be a Gold Cup horse. Last season was a write off but he looked good last time at Thurles (22f) and he could have the natural speed to take Cyrname on in front.

Aso is also a very useful performer on his day and he was a superb 2nd to Frodon at Cheltenham. That, like most of his best form, came at 21f and the jury is out on how effective he is at 24f. The other five in the race hold stronger claims, but he was staying on over 3 miles here in a handicap in February 2017. The fact he is as big as 66/1 for this tells you everything about the quality in this race.

King George Conclusion

It is a real pity that only 6 go to post here as both Thistlecrack and Footpad are nice each way prices. However, even though all the pre-race hype has concerned Lostintranslation and Cyrname, I think Clan Des Obeaux could steal their thunder. His stablemate Cyrname has to prove he stays 3 miles and Lostintranslation may be better suited by a stiffer test. Footpad and Thistlecrack add even more spice to an intriguing race. However, I think Clan Des Obeaux can retain his King George crown and he is the selection at odds of 9/2.

 

2019 BOXING DAY TIPS KEMPTON: CLAN DES OBEAUX  @ 9/2