2019 Japanese GP Tips and Preview by James Punt

James Punt landed a lovely winner on the app last week with Lewis Hamilton advised to win the Russian GP at 3.75. This week the race will be held in Japan and qualifying has been put back until Sunday. Typhoon Hagibis is on the rampage in the Far East and some Rugby World Cup games have been cancelled already. However, in spite of the bad weather James Punt has produced an in-depth preview. Check out his 2019 Japanese GP Tips and preview below…

2019 Japanese GP Preview and Tips

The Suzuka circuit is one of the jewels in the F1 crown. A fast, flowing track which is regarded as a driver’s circuit, it also requires power and efficient aerodynamics. Most of the corners are fast but there is one hairpin bend a slowish chicane preceding the start/finish straight.  At face value it looks to be Ferrari friendly with a couple of decent straights and all the fast corners that require power.

The weather forecast will have to be closely watched this week. Typhoon Hagibis, a ‘Violent’ level storm, is currently on track to hit the Suzuka area on Saturday and only clearing on Sunday morning. The track here doesn’t drain well but the wind will be the main problem. At present the forecast is for a humid, warm but cloudy Friday with afternoon showers.

Nasty Weather On The Way

Saturday will see heavy rain and very strong winds in the afternoon. The wind will be around 65 kmh, gusting to 160 kmh. It is those winds which will make holding qualifying extremely doubtful. Having tens of thousands of fans sitting in exposed positions with a lot of temporary structures around is a big H&S risk. Never mind the dangerous driving conditions!

There was a similar problems here in 2010 and 2004 when typhoons caused third practice to be abandoned and qualifying to be held on Sunday morning. The problem at the moment is that Sunday morning is also set to be wet and windy before the rain clears away in the afternoon. How they can fit in qualifying and the race is the problem. All support races have been cancelled to give the F1 race more flexibility. However, there must be a risk that we get no race.

Formula 1 suffered its last fatal accident here in 2014. The race was held in bad weather conditions and fading light after the start was delayed.  A repeat of that will not be allowed to happen so there has to be some questions as to how this race weekend can be made to work, if the storm does hit Suzuka head on at the wrong time. Of course, storms do change course, and nothing is set in stone yet. However, Saturday looks like being a no go.

Ferrari’s Winning Run Ended In Russia

Ferrari’s run of three consecutive wins was halted in Russia, with Mercedes alternate strategy paying off. Ferrari did have pole position, their fourth in a row, and their one lap speed is practically impossible to match. Race pace is a different matter, especially in hotter conditions. However, things looks good for the red cars this weekend, if the weather allows the race to be run.

Certainly, a wet race would mix things up. We have had one wet race in 2019, the German GP. That saw the first non-big three driver, Daniil Kvyat, get a podium finish. There were six retirements, including Bottas and Leclerc, and Hamilton spun off the track and out of contention. All this allowed the sure-footed Verstappen to win, Kvyat third, Stroll fourth and there were double points for Haas. It was the kind of chaotic race that rain can bring.

There has been criticism of the Pirelli wet weather tyres from many drivers. They just don’t work well enough in really wet conditions. The cars are aquaplaning and become impossible to control. At high speeds that is very dangerous and F1 will not put their drivers at risk, especially on this circuit.

Verstappen Will Relish The Rain

Verstappen is a wet weather master and the Red Bull’s (and their junior team, Toro Rosso) have a long pedigree of being good in the wet. A wet Sunday would be great news for Red Bull and track owners, Honda. This is Honda’s biggest race of the year and they have made sure their four drivers have taken their grid penalties in the lead up to this race. They will all have newish power units with the latest upgrades and a new fuel which will add a few more horses to the engines.

Verstappen has good record here, on the podium for the last three years in underpowered machinery. He is a 2.38 shot to finish in the top three. However, with Ferrari expected to be strong here and Mercedes bring upgrades, it may be that Honda will be disappointed. No doubt they will have everything turned up to 11. But, that might still not be enough and they may push beyond the limits of reliability.

2019 Japanese GP Tips: Gasly Has Problems

Toro Rosso have created a bit of a problem for Pierre Gasly. He is due to sit out FP1 to allow a local Japanese driver a run out. The session could be the only dry session we get until the race on Sunday. So, he could be utterly clueless about how the car is performing going into qualifying and the race.

I was looking forward to having something on Daniil Kvyat in a wet race. However, ironically, it looks like it will be too wet to get any running on Saturday and we have to accept the forecast that it will be a dry race on Sunday. There could be rain in FP1 and given that its Honda’s home race then seeing Kvyat trying to get the headlines by turning everything up to maximum would not be a surprise. The Red Bulls may be tempted but my guess is that they will not risk reliability in free practice. Kvyat is only 101.00 to be fastest in FP1 which is taking the piss to be honest. However, if your awake when its on and its raining then there are worse each way bets.

Since the start of the turbo-hybrid era this is another track where Mercedes have dominated. They have won all five with three 1-2 finishes. Hamilton as won four of those five races and he is a four-time pole sitter at Suzuka. Bottas’ second place here last year was his first podium at the track. We have already seen Mercedes losing their dominance at tracks like Monza and Spa this season and this could be another. They certainly know they will have their work cut out if they are to make it six in a row.

Mercedes Make Minor Improvements

Mercedes have brought some updates for their car as they try to catch up on Ferrari. They had hoped to have stopped development on this year’s car by now and concentrate on the 2020 car. However, Ferrari’s recent upturn in performance has forced them to up their game. The performance gains are said to be modest.

Ferrari has not won here since 2004 and have had just one podium in the last five years. With their car being the most powerful this time around, they will be favourites, for pole position at least. There is continuing tension within the team as the two drivers struggle to be king of that particular hill. Vettel ignored team orders in Russia and the fact that he had to retire from the race ended that particular headache, but only for the mean time. Vettel has won four races here but that was back in his days at Red Bull when dominated before the new engine regulations came into effect.

2019 Japanese GP Tips: Racing Point Improving

Like most places, the mid-field teams haven’t had a look in at Suzuka in the turbo hybrid era. McLaren had a fifth place in the wet and shortened 2014 race while Williams fifth place in 2015 joined McLaren as the closest any of the also rans have come to a podium.

Racing Points predecessor, Force India, always enjoyed their trips to Japan, scoring points in all the last five races and double points on four occasions. They have been frustratingly close in recent races to getting their third double points finish of 2019 and they are one of the fastest improving teams in the field.

Racing Point should get both cars home in the points, in a dry race, but they have struggled to do so thanks to relatively poor qualifying pace, and very poor qualifying pace from Lance Stroll. The car has the race pace, but he is usually on the back two or three rows at the start which makes it difficult to make the top 10 without a lot of retirements ahead of him. Perez has been 7th here for the last three years and that is where he should be aiming for come Sunday. Whether Stroll joins him in the top 10 depends on what he can do in qualifying.

Williams Need A Miracle

Williams used to be strong here, but they are a such a basket case that only a wet race with multiple safety cars could get them close to the points again. They ‘scored’ their only point of the season in the wet German race but even then, they got it courtesy of a post-race penalty for the two Alfa Romeo drivers, which promoted Kubica to tenth position.

It is hard to know how to proceed this weekend. Friday’s free practice should go ahead as normal and it should be dry with maybe a few showers in the afternoon. I would be very surprised if we see any action on Saturday. Whether we get qualifying and the race on Sunday depends when the storm finally clears the area and what damage it leaves behind. As it stands, it looks like the FIA will schedule qualifying and the race on Sunday. If the race was unable to go ahead due to infrastructure damage it will be a case of no bet, money back.

The last time we lost a full Saturday was at the USGP in 2015. The teams got no running on Saturday and no free practice before qualifying so everyone was in the dark about set ups and tyres. Something similar could happen here and some teams will be luckier than others when it comes to setting the cars up with very limited data to go on. If the teams are going in blind, so are we, which is never a good thing.

2019 Japanese GP Tips – Outright Selections

Charles Leclerc has qualified on pole position for the last four races and the Ferrari has great one lap pace. Question marks about the conditions under which qualifying will be run do not help. I am still surprised to see Leclerc at odds against.

2019 Japanese GP Tips: 2 points Charles Leclerc to be the fastest qualifier @ 2.85 with Sportingbet

As for the race winner, that is more open. Mercedes are more competitive in that area and that have an excellent track record. The last five years saw a driver from the front row winning the race and the pole man has won the last three. That points in the direction of Leclerc. Given the uncertainties about the weather, we can come back to this nearer the time. Preferably after qualifying.

We have been knocking on the door with Racing Point getting a double points finish recently, with frustrating results. Stroll was under a second off 10th place in Russia and he remains the weak link. The car however is improving, and the team have a good record here. Stroll has scored points five times from sixteen races this season. But his chances are better now that the car is maturing into a competitive machine. His best results have come at fast tracks like Spa, Azerbaijan and Canada. So, this is another that should suit.

2019 Japanese GP Tips: 2 points Lance Stroll to finish in the points @ 4.00

2019 Japanese GP Tips: 2 points double points finish for Racing Point @ 5.50 with Sky Bet

Updates will be posted via the TXODDS app over the weekend.

-JamesPunt