2019 Mexican GP Tips and Preview by James Punt

The F1 season is well into the closing stages with just 1 month to go until it finishes. This weekend the Formula 1 circus rolls into Mexico where altitude is a big issue. Our resident F1 expert James Punt has produced another in-depth preview. Check out his free 2019 Mexican GP Tips and preview below…

2019 Mexican GP Preview

The Mexican Grand Prix is one of the more unusual races of the season. Mexico City sits some 2250 metres above sea level. At this altitude the engineers face unique challenges in how to set the car up to cope with the problems caused by the thinner air.

The thin air has an impact on engine performance and there is less oxygen for combustion. While the turbos make up for some of that, there is a limit as to how fast the turbos can spin. It is not a given that the most powerful power units at sea level will still be the most powerful at altitude. We have seen the normally underpowered Renault power units win races here while they have struggled at every other track.

Keeping Cool Is Key

Cooling is another problem in thinner air. Teams that have problems in hot conditions will have problems here. Solutions like opening up the body work can have a negative impact on aero performance. Keeping the power units cool may have to be achieved by not running them in the most aggressive modes. Mercedes problems in Austria was a case in point. It was a waring sign that things could be difficult for them this weekend.

The Austrian track is a relatively high-altitude circuit and it was very hot weather. It was track a which should have suited the Mercedes. However, the weather conditions didn’t allow them to run the power unit as normal. In the end, it was Max Verstappen who won the race in the underpowered Red Bull (despite a dreadful start), on a track that traditionally rewarded power.

The downforce produced by the cars will also be reduced. The cars will all be set up with Monaco levels of downforce. However, that will produce only about 70% of the downforce produced at sea level. This track with see the cars flying down the 1.2km long straight at very high speed and then having to brake very heavily before entering the corners. They have to tackle them with less than perfect levels of downforce and grip.

Altitude Concerns For Big Guns

In the past, we have seen the competitive ordered being shaken up, simply as a result of the challenges produced by the thinner air. Mercedes are expecting this to be their toughest race of the season. Ferrari are being touted as a shoe in thanks to Mercedes’ vulnerability here. But, what about Ferrari’s weak points?

Ferrari will love the long straight, so long as the turbo can cope. However, there are plenty of slow corners to get through with less downforce than would be desired.

The track temperature here can get very high, another by-product of the thin air. In the past Ferrari have not always enjoyed hot circuits. If they are struggling for downforce, and their car is very slippy through the air, they could find themselves really struggling in the corners. If the car starts to understeer, one of its weaknesses, the tyres will suffer. A downward spiral could follow.

Bumpy Circuit

The circuit is also very bumpy in places and we have seen Ferrari suffer on bumpy surfaces before, Melbourne springs to mind, so they will need to have sorted that out. Ferrari should have the best single lap pace but over a race distance? There are question marks.

The weather forecast suggests a chance of a few showers on Friday afternoon and overnight rain should have cleared away by the start of FP3. Qualifying will be dry and warm at 24 degrees. Race day will be a dry and sunny and 25 degrees. The track surface will be much hotter.

Ferrari have never won here in the modern era (Mexico returned to the calendar in 2015) but they have been getting closer and they finished second and third last year. Vettel qualified on pole in 2017 so they know what is required to perform well here.

Mercedes Have A Good Record In Mexico

Mercedes dominated in 2015 and 2016 with front row lock outs and 1-2 finishes. Since then they have struggled with a second place in 2017 and no podium last years with a fourth and fifth place finish.

Red Bull, a car that traditionally produces more downforce, have been solid performers here. They took third place in 2016, and won the race in 2017 and 2018. They have also had one car retire in the last two years but had a front row lock out last year.

Of the midfield teams, none has a really outstanding record. Racing Point (nee Force India) had good double points finishes for the first three races here but were pointless last year. They have been improving since the summer break but they are still relatively poor in qualifying. That is holding them back from getting double points finishes.

Stroll was sixth here for Williams in 2017 and he professes to liking the track a lot. However, his average grid position is 15.4 which means he has to do a lot of overtaking to get a point. Perez has a good track record but he too struggles in qualifying. However, his race pace in recent races has been excellent.

2019 Mexican GP Tips: Home Comfort For Perez

The home crowd will be rooting for Sergio Perez and the Mexican driver has decent form here with form figures of 8/10/7/R.  He should be in the points once again in the improving Racing Point. He is a top 6 contender if he could qualify in the top 10 but he has put himself into the top 10 from way down the grid in Italy and in Japan.

Perez was fortuitous with the early flag which allowed him to keep his top 10 position despite spinning out on the last lap after a tangle with Gasly. Four top 8 classifications from the last five races makes his odds of 2.50 for this race look good. He has three points finishes from four races here.

2019 Mexican GP Tips: 3 point Sergio Perez to finish in the points @ 2.50 with BetVictor

McLaren have had just two minor points finishes in the last two years, but they are the most improved team of 2019 and they are still bringing new parts to the car. Carlos Sainz has a very poor record here (13/16/R/R) but he is the most likely driver to be best of the rest again this weekend. The McLaren is rapid on the straights and the team are optimistic that the track will suit their car. Sainz has been in the top 6 seven times this season and in five of the last eight races.

Alfa Romeo (nee Sauber) were seventh and ninth last year, their first point at the circuit in four year. The team has hit a slump in form with Raikkonen pointless in the last five races and while Giovinazzi scored in Italy and Singapore, he too has been pointless in the last two races.

2019 Mexican GP Tips: Renault To Build On 2018 Promise

Renault have traditionally struggled here, but they qualified seventh and eighth last year and Hulkenberg finished sixth while Sainz retired. Reliability has been a big problem for them in the last two years with just one car finishing the race.

Both cars have been retrospectively disqualified from the Japanese GP for illegal driver aids. The brake bias adjustment system used by Renault was deemed not to breach any FIA technical regulations. But, because it was a pre-set automated system, that made it a driver aid, which is a breach of regulations.

I assume that Renault will have to change it back to a manual system so as not to fall foul of the regulations again. Whether this will impact on performance is hard to say. It puts a bit of a damper on their prospects though. Both drivers go well here, and the Renault power units have proven to be good at altitude. Well, either good, or unreliable.

2019 Mexican GP Tips: Hulkenberg Could Go Well

Hulkenberg is just 1.55 to finish in the points but he has done it in the last five races and in three from four races here. Ricciardo has a bit of a love hate relationship with the track with back to back DNF’s for the last two years, made all the worse as he started from pole position last year.

With the same power units as McLaren, it is possible that Hulkenberg and/or Ricciardo will be the biggest threat to Sainz as best of the rest this weekend. Hulkenberg’s form has improved since the news that he has been dropped by Renault for next season. He is driving for his career and may be putting up a better effort as a result.

2019 Mexican GP Tips: 1 point Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the top 6 @ 4.50 generally available

Toro Rosso have never fared well with just two minor points finishes in four years and while Williams used to do well when they were a Formula 1 team, they were pointless for the first-time last season and likely to be so once again.

In terms of driver records, Max Verstappen has been the winner for the last two years and he has completed all four races in the points. Hamilton has one win, a runner up spot and two more top 10 finishes, not his best record and something of a bogey track for him, despite being crowned champion here on two occasions.

Vettel’s second place last year was his best result. Bottas was third in a Williams in 2015 and eighth the following year before switching to Mercedes and finishing second and fifth in the last two year. Charles Leclerc was an impressive seventh for Sauber last year on his track debut and the man he replaced at Ferrari, Kimi Raikkonen was third for the last two years.

Big Three Should Dominate

Despite the unusual atmospheric conditions in Mexico City, the big three teams have dominated the podium in all for years, barring Williams third place in 2015. The gap between the big three and the rest remains just as big as ever so it is unlikely that we will see any big surprises this weekend.

Mercedes are downplaying their chances for this weekend and they have tended to struggle here in recent years. Red Bull have won the race for the last two years with Max Verstappen and had pole position last year. They are also being rather negative about their chances, saying that Ferrari will hold all the aces thanks to their power advantage.

2019 Mexican GP Tips: Leclerc Can Take Pole

Ferrari have dominated qualifying since the summer break and they are going for their sixth pole position in a row. Grid position has proved to be important here with all four winners starting on the front row. C

harles Leclerc is the 2.20 favourite for pole position and teammate Vettel a 5.00 shot. It should be between the two of them, but Red Bull can’t be completely ruled out as they got pole last year and that was with a Renault power unit. They have more power with their Honda units this year and Verstappen (5.50) is something of a track specialist.

Leclerc has had five of the last six pole positions and is 8-1 up on Vettel since the Austrian GP. He really struggled in qualifying at the start of the season but when the penny dropped, he has usually left Vettel in his wake, with Vettel only beating his team rival in Japan last time out.

2019 Mexican GP Tips: 4 points Charles Leclerc to qualify on pole position @ 2.20 with Sportingbet

Race winner betting can wait until after qualifying, or Friday’s practice at least. If Ferrari are struggling on the longs runs, they are vulnerable on Sunday, so we need to learn a bit more. Leclerc is currently 3.00 and Verstappen 5.00. The former is good if there are no long run worries for Ferrari, and the latter good if there is. We shall see.

Updates will be posted on the TXODDS app as usual.

-JamesPunt