TXMarkets’ Formula 1 tipster James Punt landed a nice wager last week with Leclerc grabbing pole position in the Italian GP. This weekend the F1 circus rolls into Singapore and the floodlit Marina Bay circuit is the venue. James Punt, as ever, has written an in-depth preview. Check out his exclusive free 2019 Singapore GP Tips below…

2019 Singapore GP Preview

F1 enters the final third of the season and while the driver’s championship is all but over, we should have a much better final third than we had in the first.

Ferrari have started winning races when the tracks suits them. Red Bull have a few tracks on which they can compete at and even Valtteri Bottas might get back to winning ways.

This weekend it is the Singapore GP at the Marina Bay circuit. This is the 12th running at this venue, famously F1’s entirely floodlit race. It is a street circuit which means a bumpy track, lots of unforgiving barriers, a lot of slow corners and a very harsh physical environment for drivers and pit crews alike. With high humidity and temperatures, the drivers are pushed to their limits and mistakes can creep in late in the race.

Twisting Track May Not Suit Ferrari

The fact that the circuit has 23 corners, most of them slow, means that it is not suited to the Ferrari. They have enjoyed back to back wins on the power sensitive Spa and Monza circuits. However, this is all about high downforce performance and slow corner performance, which is the Ferrari’s weak spot.

Mercedes used to struggle here but in the Turbo Hybrid era they have dominated with four wins from five. It has not been total dominance however; Red Bull have had a car in 2nd place for the last five years. Ferrari won in 2015 but have just one other podium finish.

None of the other teams have got a look in podium wise. Force India usually get at least one car into the points, Toro Rosso have had a car in the points in four of the last five years, but it has not been a happy hunting ground for Sauber, Haas or Williams.

2019 Singapore GP Tips: Starting Position Is Key

The attrition rate can be high and that always give the mid-fielders something to hope for. But, as with all street circuits, overtaking is difficult. Qualifying is very important and the quickest cars start and finish in the best positions. There will be a third DRS zone added this year to help with overtakes but to put it into context, there were just 19 on track passes here last year.

Tracks that give us some sort of form guide are Monaco and to a lesser degree, Montreal and Hungary. The three softest tyre compounds will be in use for the first time since the Canadian GP, another semi-street circuit, while Hungary is another slow, sinuous circuit.

The Marina Bay circuit is faster than Monaco and has a couple of reasonably long straights. However, in terms of the proximity of the barriers and the fact that drivers are constantly working the wheel, it is very like Monaco.

2019 Singapore GP Tips: red bull in the hunt

Lewis Hamilton won Monaco but was harried by Verstappen all the way. In Canada Hamilton won after Vettel blew his chances but the Montreal track is much more power sensitive than Marina Bay. Hamilton also won in Hungary, but it was another narrow win over Verstappen in the Red Bull. Verstappen qualified on pole in Hungary and with Red Bulls’ good record here, he will be very much in the hunt for both pole position and a race win.

This weekend looks like a Mercedes vs. Red Bull, Hamilton vs. Verstappen kind of race. Both took new power unit specs in Italy and both are penalty free this weekend. The Mercedes is very strong in slow corners and that is a track which will reward that fact. The Red Bull performs at its best in high downforce tracks and it too will be suited to the circuit. Ferrari are handicapped by a car that is only totally competitive on tracks were power is the biggest requirement. That is certainly not the case here. Ferrari are further handicapped by having Sebastian Vettel in one of the cars.

Vettel In Free Fall

Vettel is just about entering free fall. His number 1 status has been forcibly ripped from him by Charles Leclerc. The team can no longer pretend that Vettel is the number one driver. He is in terms of salary but not in terms of performance. He knows the game is up….at Ferrari at least. The German can’t compete with Leclerc so he must either be happy to be the number two or leave at the end of the season. He sees himself as a four-time World Champion, not a number two driver. But where can he go? Who will want a very expensive driver past his best? If Alonso couldn’t get a top drive, and he was still producing the goods, why would Vettel?

For the rest of the season Vettel is going to sit in his Ferrari and sulk. That is not going to produce a great atmosphere in the team. He is now 5th in the World Drivers Championship and he is costing the team points.

Hamilton is the 2.50 Favourite, Max Verstappen the 2.87 second favourite. That assessment looks about right. They have the best two cars for the circuit, both are in good form, but Hamilton has very good course form to go on and the Mercedes is still that bit better than the Red Bull on the majority of circuits.

2019 Singapore GP Tips: Best Of The Rest

As for the best of the rest category, as always, that is a more interesting matter. McLaren are still 4th on the constructor’s championship but their lead over Renault took a 21 point hit in Italy and Renault are now just 18 points behind. McLaren are the only other team using the Renault power unit so all that separates them are the drivers and chassis.

There is no place to hide for the team that comes second in that little battle. McLaren struggled on the low downforce tracks of Spa and Monza while Renault thrived. That suggests that the Renault is much stronger in a low drag configuration and that in turn suggests that their aerodynamics are not as efficient as McLaren’s.

Sainz Likes It At Marina Bay

Now we are back on a track where the teams must stick on more downforce it looks likely that McLaren will once again have the upper hand. Sainz has a good record here and he has scored well at Monaco and Hungary, both top 6 finishes.

Renault’s Ricciardo has three 2nd places from the last five races here and a further 3rd place. Clearly if Renault can give him a better high downforce package, he is in with a shout for best of the rest but on balance, Sainz looks to be the best chance. However, his odds are not great value. Just 1.36 to score points and 2.60 for a top 6 finish.

We have one team who are ramping up on developments just as many are winding down. Racing Point were on the back foot at the start of the season due to the knock-on effects of their poor financial situation as Force India last year.

The new investment made in the team is now coming on stream at quite a rate. They will have a substantial upgrade this weekend and they are determined to make a sustained push for 4th place in the constructor’s championship. They need the prize money more than Renault so theirs is a bigger incentive.

2019 Singapore GP Tips: Perez To Keep Good Form Going

Sergio Perez has a good record here with four top 8 finishes in the last four years. He overcame a ton of setbacks in Monza to score a 7th place finish from a long way down the grid (18 th). A run of eight pointless races ended with his 6th in Belgium and 7th in Italy and Racing Point are on a charge.

We suffered one of those races from hell in Italy when just about everything that could go wrong did in the race. Lance Stroll, in the other Racing Point, was going very nicely in 7th place before he was hit by Vettel re-joining the track like a drunk driver. He had qualified in Q3 for the first time since the stone age which reflects the progress at Racing Point, but Perez remains their main man.

Perez is 2.75 to finish in the points and the team has a good record here, scoring points in four of the last five with two double points finishes. There is still something of a question mark over their qualifying performance and its hard to say if it would be better to take the odds now, or wait and see if they are bigger post qualifying? If the upgrade works, then odds of 2.75 could be gone so we will take them now.

2019 Singapore GP Tips: 3 points Perez to finish in the points @ 2.75 with Betfair, Paddy Power

Perez also looks a sporting price in Ladbrokes ‘without the big 6’ market. Sainz and Ricciardo will be tough to beat but the odds look very tempting given Racing point and Perez’ strong record here, along with the potential of the cars upgrade this weekend.

2019 Singapore GP Tips: 1 point e/w Sergio Perez to be Best of the Rest @ 15.00 with Ladbrokes

Another team/driver combination that looks to have great potential for this circuit is Daniil Kvyat in the Toro Rosso. He was another losing bet that was going really well in Italy last time out, but he was forced to retire when all set to win his group bet. Kvyat was 6th here in 2015 and 9 th in 2016. He has finished in the points in 50% of the races so far this season and Toro Rosso has scored points here in four of the last five years. Kvyat is a much more accomplished driver these days and he should be odds on in my opinion.

2019 Singapore GP Tips: 3 points Daniil Kvyat to finish in the points @ 2.40 with Sportingbet

Kvyat has had a new teammate for the last two races in the shape of Pierre Gasly. The young Frenchman was dropped by Red Bull, not undeservedly, but he has returned to a team he was with last year so settling back in hasn’t taken long. He simply wasn’t ready to be Max Verstappen’s teammate and it showed. He has something to prove now.

Gasly was 9th at Spa and 11th at Monza from 17th on the grid. He has his power unit penalties out of the way for now and as the Toro Rosso has a decent looking potential for this circuit, he will be looking to score a point or two this weekend.

That means that Toro Rosso are in with the chance of a double points finish. They have managed it three times this season, notably at Monaco, and as recently as Belgium. They are 4.75 to get a double points finish, considerably bigger than McLaren at 2.00, who have manged double points on four occasions. Renault are 2.55 having also manged three double points finishes. The value looks to be with the less feted team.

2019 Singapore GP Tips: 2 points Toro Rosso to have a double points finish @ 4.75 with Sportingbet

-JamesPunt