2019 US GP Tips by James Punt

Our Formula 1 tipster James Punt landed a couple of tasty bets last week. He advised Leclerc to take pole for 4 points and he duly delivered at 2.20. Perez was also advised to finish in the points and finish best of the rest and he did so easily in 7th. This week the F1 action comes from America, check out James Punt’s 2019 US GP Tips and Preview below…

2019 US GP Preview

After the quirky Mexican GP at high altitude, this week sees the teams come back down to earth at the Circuit of the Americas, Texas. The track is a modern, purpose built F1 facility which is much like a hybrid of Suzuka and Hockenheim. It features a good mix of corners from the Suzuka like esses in sector 1 to a fiddly technical sector at the end of the long straight, not unlike Hockenheim. Overtaking is possible and it does produce good racing. It is an anti-clockwise layout and the track surface is quite bumpy. This can unsettle the cars under braking.

The track temperature will be fairly cool this year with all three days, dry, sunny but cool. The mornings will be chilly before the air temperature climbs to 17 degrees in the afternoon. Sunday may be a little warmer but still under 20 degrees. No cooling problems for the teams this week. However, making the tyres work in the colder conditions may be a problem.

2019 US GP Tips: Mercedes Like It Here

In the turbo Hybrid era, Mercedes have dominated with four wins from five. They finished first and second in 2014, 2015 and 2016, won again in 2017 but where just third and fifth last year which was won by Kimi Raikkonen in a Ferrari. 

Ferrari have been better here in the last couple of years and Red Bull have been competitive but unreliable, failing to get both cars to finish in the last four years.

Hamilton has a great record in Texas, winning five races here with one for Vettel in a Red Bull and Raikkonen won last year. Bottas has yet to get a podium. Hulkenberg had a rotten run of results with four consecutive DNF’s before his 6th place last year. The ever-reliable Sergio Perez has been 8th for the last three years and 5th in 2015.

Team wise it has been a good track for Mercedes, not so great for Ferrari until last years win and decent for Red Bull. Of the midfield teams nobody stands out. Toro Rosso have had a car in the points for the last five years but three of those were 10th places. Racing Point drew a blank in 2014 but have scored in the last four years. Renault had a good race here last year with a sixth and seventh.

Ferrari May Have Weather Worries

The cooler weather may not play to Ferraris strength nor will the bumpy track. There is a long straight which they will love but it is not a particularly power sensitive track with its many corners, six of which are slow.

Ferrari have dominated qualifying since the summer break. Pole position for the last six races but they only converted three into wins. Of course, Verstappen was the fastest qualifier in Mexico, but his time was disallowed for a yellow flag infringement. Red Bull had played down their chances in Mexico but as it turned out, they had the quickest car.

They are being more optimistic for this week and the track should suit their car. This will be Verstappen’s 100th F1 race (as it is for Sainz) and maybe he will be celebrating with a win. He was second last year and the car is a bit more competitive now.

2019 US GP Tips: Mercedes The Team To Beat In Texas

Mercedes are still the team to beat. They are losing out in qualifying which makes life more difficult, but operationally they remain in a different league to Ferrari who are not as sharp over a race distance as they are in qualifying. Hamilton is a big fan of America and he can polish up his American accent over weekend guys! Mercedes have won the last three races despite not starting from pole position, but their race strategy has been spot on. With such a good record here, Hamilton starts as the 2.88 favourite.

With their qualifying weakness, those odds may look a bit short come Sunday morning. Ferrari have the best one lap pace and are going to be hard to stop on Saturday, but they can usually be opposed on Sundays. Their race pace isn’t so dominant, strategically they are poor, and we should have a proper three-way fight. Red Bull haven’t had a podium since Singapore, but Verstappen has been hindered by first lap incidents in the last two races. That is masking what is good potential in the car and his odds have drifted out to a very generous level. Red Bull are expecting to be in contention for wins in all three of the remaining races, starting with this one.

Ladbrokes/Coral are back to offering e/w terms for the first three places, but Verstappen is best backed with William Hill and we may as well go win only. If the car turns out not to great or one of the other top teams hits the sweet spot. he would struggle for second place. Verstappen has only had one second place, in Hungary, were he started on pole.

2019 US GP Tips: 2 points Max Verstappen to win the US GP @ 9.00 with William Hill

Historically this has been a good track for the midfield teams to get a top 6 finish. McLaren did it in 2015 and 2016, Renault last year, Toro Rosso in 2015 and 2016. Racing Point (nee Force India) managed a top 6 in 2015 and 2017. They have been helped by Red Bull failing to get both cars home for the last four years and Ferrari in 2015 and 2016.

McLaren are now clear in 4th place in the constructors table despite a pointless Mexican GP. Carlos Sainz is their main man with seven top six finishes. He has only had two points finishes in the last six races, but they were both top 6. His qualifying form for the last five races reads 7/7/6/7/7 and he is the driver most likely to pick up a top 6 if the big three have a retirement or a problem.

Sainz has a good record here with finishes of 7/6/7/7 and he looks reasonable value to get another top 6 finish.

2019 US GP Tips: 2 points Carlos Sainz to get a top 6 finish @ 2.75 with Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports

Toro Rosso have managed a point’s finish here for the last five years, and a double points finish in 2016. With teams like Alfa Romeo and Haas out of form and not scoring the fight for the minor points is between McLaren, Racing Point, Renault and Toro Rosso. McLaren have the best car in the midfield, but they are not bullet proof. Since the summer break they have had five points finishes between their two drivers, so only one double points finish.

Renault are all over the place. Hulkenberg has been very consistent, finishing in the top 10 in the last six races. His record here is poor with four DNF’s from seven starts. Ricciardo had had just the three top 10 finishes in the last six races and while he has had two podiums here for Red Bull, he has failed to finish for the last two years. They have lacked consistency in qualifying and are generally underperforming.

Stroll Can Push On For Racing Point

Racing Point now have a good race car and one good driver. Perez was a nice best of the rest winner for us last weekend as well as landing the points finish bet. The bookies are finally on to him and he is just 1.50 for more points this weekend. Teammate Stroll on the other hand just can’t qualify and his average qualifying position is better only than the two Williams drivers.

He is just giving himself too much to do in the races. However, on this track even with another stinker on Saturday, he must have a decent chance of the top ten. You can overtake here, and the Racing Point is arguably the 5^th best car on Sunday’s. If he can’t get a point or two here, he’ll struggle anywhere. Not a big bet as he inspires little confidence in qualifying, but he does have a decent chance of a top 10 on Sunday.

2019 US GP Tips: 1 point Lance Stroll to finish in the points @ 3.25 with Bet365, Betvictor, Sportingbet

Qualifying and Race Day Updates will be posted on the TX App.

-JamesPunt