2019 Vertem Futurity Trophy Preview and Tips

by Dave Stevos | Oct 31, 2019

2019 Vertem Futurity Trophy Tips and Preview

This race, formerly known as the Racing Post Trophy, was scheduled for Doncaster last week. Torrential rain saw the meeting abandoned and it was rescheduled for this Friday at Newcastle. The switch to the all weather has resulted in a more diverse field and it looks a fascinating contest. As ever, Aidan O’Brien holds a very strong hand but he may not have it all his own way. Dave Stevos has previewed the race, check out his free 2019 Vertem Futurity Trophy tips below…

2019 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes Preview

Aidan O’Brien runs five in this contest and Mogul looks his number one. Donnacha will ride the son of Galileo and he is the favourite at around 13/8. He has looked a proper horse since his defeat on debut, winning his last two easily. He scored in a mile maiden at the Curragh (gd/yld) and then followed up in a Group 2 at Leopardstown at the same trip (gd). Newcastle’s straight mile will be a lot different though and the all weather surface is an unknown.

A couple of his half siblings have run on the all weather but they didn’t set the world alight. His brother Japan and sister Secret Gesture both love the turf so whether Mogul will take to the surface is up for debate. His sire Galileo has a 31% strike rate on the all weather compared to 59% on grass. He has had 46 runners at Newcastle, with only 5 winners, so for that reason Mogul is worth opposing.

Ballydoyle Best Of The Rest

Innisfree (6/1) and Year Of The Tiger (33/1) are both by Galileo too. The former has form with Pinatubo (4th beaten 6.75L) while the latter scored on heavy at the Curragh last time. Again, the surface is a worry for both. New World Tapestry (40/1) is a very interesting runner. He is by War Front, a sire that has a very good record at Newcastle.

War Front has had a total of 22 runners at Newcastle, producing 6 winners and 11 places. That translates to a frame hitting strike rate of over 77%. The 5th home in his maiden win at Newmarket last time (7f gd), Society Lion, franked the form by hacking up next time. The way he finished his race at Newmarket suggests a mile will suit and at 40/1 he is an interesting contender.

Kinross An Unknown Quantity

Kinross represents Ralph Beckett and Harry Bentley who are having a superb time of it lately. He is by Kingman, a sire with a fine record at Newcastle. He has had 10 runners here with 3 wins and 4 places. Kinross scored on good to soft on debut, destroying the field over 7f at Newmarket. The runner up won easily next time so there is substance to the form. He hasn’t got an illustrious pedigree like some of his rivals but he deserves his place here on the back of that maiden win. 9/4 looks short enough for what he has actually achieved though.

Kameko is another interesting contender for Balding and Murphy. He has run very well in Group company on his last two starts, missing out by a neck and a nose. His dam is a half-sister to Kingsbarns, the winner of this race in 2012. Verboten is another unknown quantity and he won a Yarmouth maiden on his only start so far. He looked a bit green but when the penny dropped the son of No Nay Never put the race to bed and won eased down.

2019 Vertem Futurity Trophy: Geometrical Overpriced

Jim Bolger is a trainer that doesn’t send horses to England unless he believes they can be competitive. Geometrical is his sole runner here and stable jockey Kevin Manning will ride. This son of Dawn Approach has lots of experience and he has solid form in the book. He broke his maiden win by slamming Mogul by nearly 6L (8f yld/sft) at Gowran. He followed that up with a good run in the G2 Futurity Stakes at the Curragh (7f yld).

Geometrical paid a heavy price for taking on Pinatubo in the G1 National Stakes next time (7f gd). Heavy ground didn’t suit last time and a line can be put through that effort. His sire, Dawn Approach, has had 7 winners and 13 places from 41 runners at Newcastle. That is a frame hitting strike rate of just under 50%. That piece of form with Mogul is impossible to ignore and given that he is 13/8, 50/1 looks crazy about Geometrical.

2019 Vertem Futurity Trophy Tips

This race is a very difficult one to read as there is no all weather form to go on. Mogul has the best recent form but Galileo’s all weather record is off putting. Kinross could be something special and on pedigree he should like the track. However, the two worth backing at massive odds are Geometrical and New World Tapestry.

Both are by sires with a good record at Newcastle and Geometrical has already beaten Mogul. He should not be as big as 50/1. New World Tapestry shaped nicely at Newmarket and that form looks decent. His price of 40/1 looks pretty generous too and Aidan O’Brien has won the last two runnings of this race. A small each way interest is advised on both Geometrical at 50/1 and New World Tapestry at 40/1.