2020 Arc de Triomphe Preview by Dave Stevos
2020 Arc de Triomphe Preview and Tips
This weekend is the most important on the French racing calendar. The Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe is on this Sunday at Longchamp and a total of 16 horses are still standing after the forfeit stage. This was a good race for us last year as we were on the winner Waldgeist. He ended Enable’s dream of landing a third win but she is back to try and make amends this year. A deluge of rain over the weekend means the ground is going to be testing at Longchamp, just like last season. If you are planning on having a bet then Dave Stevos’ 2020 Arc de Triomphe preview is well worth a read…
2020 Arc de Triomphe Preview – The Main Contenders
Enable
Trainer: John Gosden
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Odds: 7/4
After the rain arrived at Longchamp Enable was backed into favouritism. Unlike her main market rival Love, John Gosden’s mare is proven on testing ground. Okay, it was very soft when Waldgeist beat her last season in this but she still finished in front of everything else. Her only other start on soft ground came at Chantilly in the 2018 Arc and that resulted in an easy win.
She was almost 2L in front of Sottsass in 2019 and she is 6lb better off with him this year. Japan is another horse that she is better off at the weights with, in comparison to last season. She hosed up in a G3 on her prep run and this race has been her target all season. Enable will undoubtedly be thereabouts at the finish but she is a 6yo now and at the odds I’ll be taking her on again. If she does go on and win the 2020 Arc de Triomphe, all credit to her.
Love
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: TBC (most likely Ryan Moore)
Odds: 11/4
Until the rain came earlier this week Love was the ante-post favourite for this contest. She has been sensational on good ground this season. She took the 1000 Guineas over 8f then stepped up to 12f she gained successive victories in the Epsom and Yorkshire Oaks. The daughter of Galileo is clearly a super filly. The big worry for her supporters is the soft ground. On the three occasions she has run with either yielding or soft in the ground description, she was beat.
Those runs all came last season. Maybe, now that she is a bigger and stronger horse, she will handle an ease better. However, she would need to run to a similar level as her good ground form to win. If she was trying it in a weaker race she might get away with. However, in a stacked contest like this she will need to be at her very best to score. Unfortunately, on very soft ground that looks unlikely. Unless conditions dry out considerably, Love is opposed.
Stradivarius
Trainer: John Gosden
Jockey: Olivier Peslier
Odds: 15/2
What a horse this fella is. Now a 6yo, Stradivarius has been abandoned by Frankie and Olivier Peslier comes in for the ride. This son of Sea The Stars is one of the best stayers of all time and this 12f trip is his absolute minimum. If it was rattling quick they would probably be too fast for him but the rain softened ground brings him right into the picture. He should be able to travel sweetly on an easier surface and it will make it more of a stamina test too, something he has an abundance of.
Stradivarius has won two of his four starts this season with both defeats coming over 12f. He was beat 5L behind Ghaiyyath on his seasonal return at Newmarket (gd/fm). However, his run at Longchamp last time over today’s C&D (gd) was much better. He was only a neck behind Anthony Van Dyck and it showed he had the pace to compete at this lofty level. If the race was even a furlong longer he would have outstanding claims. However, even over 12f he has every chance of hitting the frame and he is a decent price.
Sottsass
Trainer: J-C Rouget
Jockey: Cristian Demuro
Odds: 14/1
The main French hope, on paper at least, is Sottsass for Jean Claude Rouget and Cristian Demuro. This son of Siyouni ran a blinder in this as a 3yo last season to finish 3rd. He was only 3.5L behind Waldgeist and just under 2L behind Enable. But, as we mentioned earlier, he is now 6lb worse off with her in this edition. He has been beaten on his last two starts, but both came over 10f.
He now steps back up to 12f for the first time since last year’s Arc and that is a big plus for him. Colin Keane gave him a nice considerate ride in the Irish Champion Stakes last time out. The way he finished off his race over 10f was very encouraging. He was only 2L behind Magical at the line and the gap was closing (Japan 4L behind). Soft ground is a slight worry as his Group 1 wins came on good and good to soft. However, at least he handles it soft and he looks sure to run another solid race in the 2020 Arc de Triomphe.
In Swoop
Trainer: F-H Graffard
Jockey: TBC (possibly Ronan Thomas)
Odds: 14/1
In Swoop is a horse that comes into this race somewhat under the radar. The 3yo son of Alderflug won a G1 in Germany on his final start of last season over 12f on good to soft. His previous two starts came at Lyon Parilly on soft and resulted in a maiden win at 11f and a good 3rd behind Gold Trip, who re-opposes here. There is no doubt that this German bred horse likes to get his toe in and he ran a cracker last time out over C&D when chasing home Mogul in the Grand Prix de Paris.
He had Gold Trip a short head behind in 3rd that day, reversing the form of their previous meeting. Serpentine, supplemented for this race on Wednesday was another couple of lengths back. That represents solid form against his own age group, but how will he cope against the older horses? I’m not sure a 6lb allowance will be enough for him to compete with the likes of Stradivarius and Sottsass. It is also very hard to see him getting close to Enable. He has minor place claims with ground to suit but it is very hard to see him winning the 2020 Arc de Triomphe.
Serpentine
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: TBC (probably Seamie Heffernan)
Odds: 14/1
The news broke on Wednesday that the Coolmore mafia had searched down the back of their couches and came up with the 70 odd grand needed to supplement the Epsom Derby winner. That race was a farcical contest and he is better judged on his Longchamp 4th behind Mogul, In Swoop and Gold Trip. The son of Galileo has produced all of his best form on good ground. It has to be worrying for his supporters that he was well beat on his only start on soft at Galway.
No doubt the front running tactics that were used at Epsom will be redeployed on this fella and he will ensure they go a good clip. It is unlikely he will be given as much rope as he was at Epsom though, and he may not be able to last home on much softer ground. Connections must fancy him to handle the conditions given that they supplemented him. However, it is impossible to get away from how poor he was the only time he raced on similar ground and others have more pressing claims.
2020 Arc de Triomphe: Lively Outsiders
Apart from the top two or three in the betting, this race looks wide open. The rain arriving has thrown a spanner in the works for some but one horse who will have no issues on the ground is Gold Trip. Trained by Fabrice Chappet, Stephane Pasquier will likely ride this son of Outstrip. He gets the 3yo allowance and he ran a very nice race in defeat behind Mogul here last time (12f gd). That marked a return to form for him after he struggled in the French Derby (10f gd/sft) and it proved he belonged in this sort of company.
He beat In Swoop by over a length when they met on soft at Lyon Parilly (11f) back in June. That horse is only 14/1 yet Gold Trip is as big as 50/1. That looks wrong to me and he is most definitely overpriced. Another one that looks far too big is Way To Paris. Yes, he is a 7yo now and he wasn’t at his best last time. However, he has plenty of form in the book that would give him a right chance in the 2020 Arc de Triomphe.
Strong Form
He produced a quartet of outstanding runs at the start of the summer in the space of a month. He went 2121 with both wins coming over 12f. The two 2nds came over 10f when he was just behind Shaman in a G2 (Sottsass 1L behind) and a short head behind Sottsass in a G1. He was only 2L behind Waldgeist in a G2 here last September (12f gd) and you can put a line through his last run as it was probably needed after a break. That should leave him spot on for this race and given how closely his form ties in with Sottsass and last year’s winner Waldgeist, 50/1 looks absolutely massive.
Others To Note
Deirdre is the big Japanese hope but this season has not gone to plan. She was beat a short head by Port Lions in February and her two UK runs this summer at Goodwood (10f) and Sandown (10f) were poor. The Japanese raider needs to bounce back from those two runs. The soft ground is another worry for her. She is a talented mare but this may be too big an ask for her.
Ballydoyle have five in total and we have already looked at Love and Serpentine. Japan has failed to fire this term but he did finish a good 4th in this last season on soft. He has form figures of 1411 on ground softer than good and those are encouraging numbers. Mogul and Sovereign would both prefer faster ground at Japan could turn out to be Coolmore’s best chance of winning this race.
Another two worth mentioning are the filly Raabihah and the Kingman colt Persian King. The former ran really well behind Tarnawa over C&D on good last time out. She is unraced on proper soft ground though and she was beat on her sole outing on good to soft. Persian King beat Pinatubo over a mile on his last outing and steps into the unknown trip wise. He has won at 9f but was beat by Sottsass on his sole start over 10f. The ground is another worry for him. While he has one win on heavy, the vast majority of his best form is on a sounder surface.
2020 Arc De Triomphe: The Verdict
For the fourth year in succession this race revolves around Enable. The two time winner and last year’s runner up will be having her swansong and it would be great if she went out on a high. It wouldn’t be surprising in the slightest if she won but odds of 7/4 make no appeal. Stradivarius can’t be discounted fully either with conditions to suit.
Love looks the most obvious one from the Aidan O’Brien yard but on soft ground she may well struggle. Of the Ballydoyle contingent Japan makes the most appeal at the odds. He has been running okay on quicker ground this term but he could take a big step forward returned to a more forgiving surface.
The two that look most overpriced are Gold Trip and Way To Paris, both at 50/1. They both have form with horses that are a lot shorter here and both handle easy ground. Gold Trip shaped nicely behind Mogul on good ground last time and was just behind In Swoop and ahead of Serpentine. Way To Paris was 3L behind Stradivarius on his last outing but he needed the run and he could get much closer today. He also has plenty of placed form behind last year’s hero Waldgeist. They are the each way selections for what should be a cracker of a race.
