2020 Bahrain GP Tips and Preview

After a run at unfamiliar tracks, which failed to produce anything but four more wins for Lewis Hamilton, we return to the norm with the 2020 Bahrain GP. Usually this is held early in the year but conditions in the desert are not expected be much different. There is some chance of rain, but more of that later.

The track is a modern, purpose-built circuit which incorporates four straights with a mix of 15 fast, medium and slow speed corners. It requires a medium to low downforce set up as the straights are a large part of the lap. It tends to produce good racing with overtaking possible, helped by the fact that there are three DRS zones.

There are three distinct sectors, the first and last are fast and largely made up of straights, with the middle sector being slower, featuring eight corners. As always, there is a trade-off between a low downforce set up to be fast on the many straights, but enough downforce to be quick in the middle sector.

Tough On Tyres

Pirelli have brought a range of compounds one step softer than used here last year. The track surface is very abrasive and with the softer compounds in use, tyre management will be important. The fast corners are hard on the tyres as are the high traction events coming out of the low and medium speed corners. It is likely that we will see different strategies employed regard the number of stops and which tyre to run in the opening stint.

The race, and qualifying, are held in the evening, under floodlights. The practice sessions one and three are held in the warmth of the daytime sun. That does muddy the water in terms of predicting how the tyres will behave when running on a cooler surface at night. Free practice two is the best form guide as it is under the lights in the evening.

Power Pivotal

Past form in the turbo hybrid era shows that only Mercedes and Ferrari have won here. Red Bull have not even had a podium finish. The only other team to have a podium finish here was Force India, back in 2014. The reason? Power. Mercedes dominated power wise in the turbo hybrid era until Ferrari closed the gap and overtook Mercedes in terms of power last season. Their advantage didn’t last long as the FIA clamped down on how Ferrari were getting their power. They are slowly getting it back but are believed to be some 50bhp shy of Mercedes. Not great for this race, and very bad for next week’s race.

The weather forecast has some patchy rain around on Friday. That might affect FP1 but light rain on a warm track isn’t that big a deal. The air temperatures will still be in the high 20’s. The same is true for Saturday and both FP3 and qualifying could see some light rain. Sunday will be dry and warm.

Mercedes have won four of the six races here in the turbo hybrid era. They were fortunate last year as Leclerc’s Ferrari was winning the race before a power unit problem dropped him to third. That left Mercedes to take another 1-2 finish. They have always had both cars on the podium so we can expect more of the same come Sunday. A double podium finish for Mercedes can be backed at 1.40 with Skybet.

Red Bull Struggles

Red Bull have never had the power to be really competitive here, but not a single podium finish is unusual over a six year period. Verstappen might break that duck this year. Honda are closer on power and with Ferrari down on BHP this season, they have the chance to be third in the race.

They are still improving the car and Verstappen’s unusual struggles in the wet in Turkey was down to his front wing being installed incorrectly. One side was some 7 degrees higher than the other. That affected the balance of the car and increased tyre wear. That will not be the case this weekend.

Racing Point moved up to third place in the constructors table after Perez’ fine second place in Turkey. He might be able to follow that up with another podium. He is a master of tyre management and if the does become a big issue, he can profit from it. The problem is that both Mercedes should be on the podium as usual and there will only be third place to play for.

McLaren Closing The Gap

McLaren are now five points behind Racing Point and will be keen to get a good result this, and next weekend. The team are largely owned by the Bahraini sovereign wealth fund and this is something of a ‘home’ race for them. It hasn’t been good them in the past however, with a sixth place for Lando Norris being their best result. Carlos Sainz has never scored a point here in five years. Running underpowered cars with Honda and Renault power units has been largely to blame, and they are not so badly handicapped this season.

Renault had a disastrous Turkish GP, scoring just one point and are now 18 points behind Racing Point. This had never been a good track for Renault with just three points scoring finishes in six years. They have always been handicapped by a lack of power but this season they are closer to the Mercedes and Honda powered cars and have had some good results on power circuits. Ricciardo has had four top 6 finishes here and his late braking style will help him overtake, especially into turn one. Ocon has finished tenth here on his two starts.

2020 Bahrain GP Track May Not Suit Ferrari

Ferrari had an excellent weekend in Turkey. Even Sebastian Vettel got a podium finish but this track, with the emphasis on power won’t be best suited to their underpowered car which is better at higher downforce circuits/conditions. It was one their stronger tracks in recent years, with two wins and a podium finish for the last five years. That run may come to an end this weekend. They have closed to within just six points of Renault, but that gap should be extended come Sunday.

Alpha Tauri drew a blank in Turkey, their only non-scoring GP for the first time in 11 races. They have scored points here in three of the last four years and with the Honda power units having more grunt this year, they should be back in the points again, and maybe a good result if they can pull of a good race strategy wise. Gasly has finished fourth and eighth in his two races here.

Haas have had some good results in Bahrain, fifth places in 2016 and 2018, with an eight place in 2017. This year they are handicapped by having Ferrari power, a poor car and have scored points in just two races this season. Alfa Romeo are finishing the season relatively well, scoring points in three of the last six races but ninth place is as good as it has got for them. They had a ninth place in 2018 and a seventh in 2019, but they had the powerful Ferrari power unit then, not the more asthmatic one that is in the car this season. Williams remain embarrassingly pointless and very likely to remain so.

Ante post selections

The race will very likely be won by Mercedes and very probably Lewis Hamilton. The titles are all won now but he is almost unable to lose given how good his car is. Bottas is 2-1 in qualifying H2H’s here against Hamilton and has finished ahead of him once in three races. However, this is usually the third race on the calendar and Bottas usually starts the season in relatively better form than Hamilton, who traditionally starts slowly and finishes like a train. I expect another lap of honour type of race for Hamilton and he should justify odds of 1.44.

2020 Bahrain GP: Podium Places Up For Grabs

Who will fill the third place on the podium? Verstappen is 1.30 to do so, very short odds given his race form here reads R/6/R/R/4. The Honda power unit is more powerful this year which greatly improves his chances.

Daniel Ricciardo had a couple of fourth places here with Red Bull and in a Renault that has shown good pace on other fast tracks he could get close to landing his third podium in five races. The problem is however that those two podiums came when one of the big three had retired from the race. The fact that this is a known track, in benign conditions means that problems for the big three should be less likely.

Sergio Perez finally got his podium finish in Turkey, but the door was wide open with Bottas and Verstappen struggling in the slippery conditions. It was another great drive from the tyre miser and that talent could be valuable this weekend.

Form Should Stand Up

This is a race which should go more to form than recent ones. Mercedes have a stranglehold on the podium here and the Red Bull, in Verstappen’s hands, should be too good to allow Perez or Ricciardo to get a podium purely on merit. Odds of 4.00 for Ricciardo and 5.50 Perez don’t have much value as a result.

 There are plenty of candidates for a top 6 finish. Ricciardo and Perez are 1.33 and 1.53 respectively. Again, not massive odds but Perez has been in the top 6 in five of the last six races, Ricciardo four. With Mercedes power in his Racing Point, Perez looks underrated even at the odds of 1.53.

Others to consider are Sainz at 2.62, but his track record is lousy. Lando Norris at 3.00 is better value. He was 6^th here last year and loves the track. It was his joint best result of 2019. He hasn’t had a top six in the last five races this season, but the car does have the performance to do so, as demonstrated by Sainz’ three top 6 finishes in the last four races.

2020 Bahrain GP: 1 point Lando Norris to finish in the top 6 @ 3.00 with Betfair, Paddy Power, Boylesports

Ferrari have been regulars in the top 6 with Charles Leclerc getting four in the last five races. Ferrari have a good record here but surely their power deficit will make it more difficult this year?

One driver who might just cause something of a surprise is Pierre Gasly. After a DNF at Imola and a poor weekend in the chaos of Turkey, he seems to have been forgotten about. He put his Alpha Tauri in fourth place on the grid at Imola and was sixth in the Eifel GP and fifth in Portugal. The Alpha Tauri is flying at the tail end of the season and teammate Kvyat finished fourth at Imola. The means three top 6 finishes for the team in the last four races. Gasly is at the top of his game right now and finished fourth here two years ago in a Toro Rosso, effectively the same team.

2020 Bahrain GP: 2 points Pierre Gasly to finish in the top 6 @ 4.33 with Skybet

Updates for qualifying and the race will be posted on the TXODDS app around 30 minutes before the start of each session.

-JamesPunt