2020 Belgian GP Tips and Preview by James Punt

It was a return to the same old story in Spain as Lewis Hamilton dominated the race. We were unlucky with our 21.00 tip for Vettel to be best of the rest. So, hopefully we get a change in fortune this weekend. James Punt has been busy writing another in depth preview for the next instalment of the F1 season. Check out his 2020 Belgian GP tips below…

2020 Belgian Grand Prix Preview

The Spanish GP was one to forget in more ways than one. The Mercedes wasn’t anymore handicapped by the hot weather than anybody else. And, despite a good start, Verstappen was never able to put Hamilton under any serious pressure. Second place was as good as he could manage. Sebastian Vettel’s one stop race strategy very nearly landed the 21.00 best of the rest bet. However, he ran out of rubber and was caught by Carlos Sainz in the dying laps.

The race itself was a mega bore as is often the case at Barcelona. It is a great test track, but a very poor racetrack. For this weekend’s race the teams are heading to Belgium and the mighty Spa Francorchamps circuit, a very welcome antidote to the Circuit de Catalunya.

Pirelli will be bringing a softer range of tyres for this weekend. The hard tyre is the C2, the medium is the C3 and the soft a C4. This is the same range as we had at the 70th Anniversary GP at Silverstone which caused Mercedes so many problems. However, before getting too excited, we should remember that it was hot for that race and Silverstone is uniquely punishing on tyres. The weather will be much cooler at Spa, and perhaps wet. So, I don’t see the tyre selection being a major worry for Mercedes.

2020 Belgian GP Tips: Will it rain?

The Spa circuit is an old school track, lots of fast sweeping corners, a long, power hungry straight and a few slow technical corners. It also has weather. It is rare not to see rain at some point over the weekend and this week is no exception. After some very hot weather races, this weekend is set to be cool and showery. The forecast is for spotty showers on Friday and temperatures in the high teens. Qualifying is forecast to be a little cooler but again with showers around.

Race day is cooler still at 13 degrees and an 92% chance of afternoon rain. That could spice things up nicely. However, the forecast is for light rain so it is hard to say what impact it will have. Predicting the weather in the Ardennes is a black art,. Generally speaking though, when there is a lot of cloud around, it rains.

Ferrari Will Want It To Stay Dry

We have already seen some wet weather action this season with the wet qualifying session at the Stryian GP. That saw Lewis Hamilton qualify on pole position. Verstappen grabbed second and McLaren’s Carlos Sainz third. Other creditable performances came from Esteban Ocon in fifth and George Russell in twelfth.

There were a few losers too with Ferrari only managing tenth and eleventh. The Racing Points had a mare, ending up thirteenth and seventeenth. There was more rain in FP2 in Hungary but it is hard to take any great form from that as only 13 drivers set a time.

The cooler temperatures will make Mercedes more comfortable and they still have the best car wet or dry. There was a notice from the FIA released after the Spanish GP to the effect that teams would only be allowed to use one power unit mode for qualifying and the race, effectively ending the ‘party mode’ deployment of power in qualifying. This was seen as another attempt to handicap Mercedes, widely regarded as having the most powerful qualifying mode. This plan has now been delayed until next weekend’s Italian GP.

2020 Belgian GP tips: Track Should Suit Red Bull

In the Turbo-Hybrid era the Belgian GP is not one that has not seen total Mercedes domination. They have won three of the six races since 2014 and have had at least one car on the podium every year. The race has been won by Ferrari for the last two years and by Red Bull in 2014.

Ferrari had really struggled here in 2014 -2016. However, as they clawed back the power deficit they have been more competitive for the last three years. Now that the FIA have clamped down on their power units this season, they are very likely to struggle again.

Red Bull have historically been handicapped by a lack of power. Consequently, they have managed just that one win and three more podium finishes in six years. With Honda having narrowed the power gap to Mercedes, in race mode at least, we should see Verstappen in the hunt for more Champagne. He has had two 3rd places in the last three years, and another would be no surprise. Teammate Alex Albon continues to struggle. Rather than fighting for a podium, he is stuck in the upper midfield. The team do not think that this is a track that will show them in their best light, but it is a track that Verstappen loves and in the wet, you never know.

Racing Point Could Go Well

Racing Point, in all its previous guises, have gone very well at Spa. As Jordan, it scored its maiden Formula 1 race win with Damon Hill winning at 67.00 in 1998. As Force India, they nearly repeated the feat with Giancarlo Fisichella in 2009 when he qualified on pole position and finished second. In the Turbo Hybrid era they have had four double points finishes and six top 6 places. Now that they have a 2019 Mercedes clone, another top 6 finish should be the bare minimum target. However, a podium finish may be within their grasp.

Alpha Tauri have punched above their weight at Spa. They scored points in five of the six turbo hybrid races here, including a double points finish last year. They have only missed out on a points finish in one of this year’s races. So, Gasly and/or Kvyat should be in the hunt again.

McLaren Pointless Here Since 2016

McLaren have been blowing hot and cold this season, but they are now just one point behind Racing Point in the constructor’s championship and one point above Ferrari in the battle for third place. Their record here has been poor in recent years and they haven’t scored a point since 2016. They have scored in every race this season so there should be more this weekend, but it is hard to say when they will have a good, or not so good a weekend. If we get a rain affected race on Sunday, Sainz may be something of a dark horse, especially as the change of power unit in Spain worked wonders on his car.

Spa does share some similarities to Silverstone as both feature fast, sweeping corners and McLaren did quite well there with Norris getting a fifth and ninth. Sainz was out of the points but there was a problem with his car, possibly going back the first couple of races. Since the chassis and power unit have been changed, he is much happier and he was sixth in Spain last time out.

Frustrating Renault

Renault continue to confound. Promising one day, underperforming the next. They drew a complete blank in Spain, but they are optimistic that Spa will suit them better. It certainly hasn’t suited them in the turbo hybrid era with just three points finishes in six years. They are best watched before deciding if there is any value in them this weekend. Ocon, who qualified third here for Force India in 2018, will have new parts for his power unit.

The bottom three, Williams, Haas and Alfa Romeo have not scored a point between them in the last three races, but a wet race of high attrition might help one of them luck in on Sunday. Haas have had their moments here but with the Ferrari power unit down on power they are going to need a wet race.

The same goes for Alfa Romeo, who despite having the former King of Spa, Kimi Raikkonen, driving for them, are now the worst team in qualifying. Williams scored points here, and some decent points, from 2014 to 2017 but have been bringing up the rear for the last two years.  George Russell in a wet race might give them a chance to return to the points in the week that the team has been sold to new investors. However, he is talking down his chances.

Hit and Miss Here For Hamilton

As far as driver records go, Hamilton hasn’t had it all his own way at Spa. Since 2014 he has won twice, been second twice with one third place a single DNF. He has also qualified on pole three times. Valtteri Bottas scored a podium for Williams in 2014 and one for Mercedes last year, but his battle is now with Verstappen to see who comes second in the driver’s championship. He has that resigned air about him, an all too familiar sight after few races of a new season.

Verstappen has had two third places but has never had the best car and was often just too underpowered to be competitive. That may be the case once more, but the prospect of a rain affected race brings him right into the picture.

Leclerc won here last year and Vettel the previous season but despite some heroic drives this season, Leclerc is on the backfoot every weekend thanks to having a poor car. Vettel has fallen out with his team and is just going through the contractual obligations now.

Perez Has Potential

Sergio Perez has gone well here. The old Force India team always overperformed here and that DNA is still strongly in the team, despite them now racing with a 2019 Mercedes. He has had four top 6 finishes here in the last six seasons and he really should add to that record. One worry is the teams poor performance in the wet qualifying at the Styrian GP, they were very good in the dry race, but Perez didn’t even get out of Q1 in the wet and Stroll wasn’t much better.

Pierre Gasly is having a very good season in the Alpha Tauri. The car is very much in the lower midfield but he is dragging it into Q3 and picking up minor points on merit. He has been nineth here in his two starts here and another wouldn’t be a surprise.

2020 Belgian GP Tips: Ante Post Selections

With the weather looking likely to be a very important factor this weekend, it is probably wise to leave the betting until as late as possible, to getting a better idea if we will indeed get rain. Wet or Dry, Lewis Hamilton is hard to oppose. His odds of 1.52 are perfectly reasonable.

A wet race will hold no fears for him, but it can throw in random factors beyond his control and he failed to win the wet race in Germany last year, finishing nineth after starting on pole. He had a spin after switching to slick tyres, damaged his front wing and then had a chaotic pitstop in which he picked up a 5 second penalty for a dangerous pit entry.

Max Verstappen always makes an interesting proposition in wet weather. He won last year’s German GP, a typically measured drive in tricky conditions to win from second on the grid. His odds of 5.00 would be attractive for a reasonable bet, if we were sure of a wet race, but if it turns out to be dry, they are too short.

Perez Chance Depends On Weather

Sergio Perez makes some appeal at 29.00 but certainly not in a wet race, which is on the radar. That very poor performance in the wet qualifying in Styria for both their drivers is a worry. Perez does have a very good track record and he could very well be starting on the second row of the grid once again, but he is priced accordingly.

It is just very unlikely that Mercedes will fail to win, most likely with Hamilton. If they did have problems, Max Verstappen is very likely to pick up the pieces. For one of the teams outside the big two, they need Hamilton, Bottas or Verstappen to retire. It happened in the first race and Lando Norris finished third.

The team/driver combination who look most likely to pick up big points if we get some attrition at the front of the grid, would be Racing Point/Perez, McLaren/with either driver or Renault/either driver.

The Renault power unit is in the back of the McLaren and Renaults and is said to be a good race engine, if lacking a bit in qualifying. Both teams got some decent results at the power sensitive tracks of Austria and Silverstone. If Mercedes, Verstappen and Racing Point have clear rounds then maybe a sixth place is a good as it could get, but with some rain to mix it up a bit on Sunday there is a little more scope for a surprise in the top 6 and maybe a podium.

Sainz Will Enjoy Wet Conditions

Carlos Sainz impressed in the wet qualifying at the Styrian GP, putting his McLaren in third place. The car does seem to enjoy the faster tracks and with his car now sorted out, expect to see more of Sainz in the hunt for a top 6 finish. He has had two from six this season and McLaren five in total. However, Sainz is just 2.20 to finish in the top 6, which is poor value and the same can be said about Lando Norris in the other McLaren.

Renault have had just the two top 6 finishes, both at Silverstone and there is a good performance due from them, but they have tended to underperform so far. Ocon was sixth here in 2018 having started third for Force India and with a new power unit, he has as much power has Renault can give him.

He qualified fifth in the wet Styrian GP qualifying and he might be another to watch in a wet race. Outside of that though his qualifying has been underwhelming and qualifying looks like being one of the driest sessions of the weekend.

No Value In Gasly

Pierre Gasly has been doing good things in the Alpha Tauri. But, odds of 1.67 for his fourth top 10 of the year are nothing more than fair. Teammate Daniil Kvyat has had two top 10’s this season and three from his five races here. However, his race results are better than his qualifying results. His odds may well be better than the 2.87 available now, come Sunday.

For the race outright, again the odds on offer show very little value. Hamilton will be very hard to beat and the only man looking likely to do it is Max Verstappen. The Belgian born Dutchman is 5.00 to win but he needs rain to level the playing field. It looks like he will get it, but the odds are not massively out of line .It is only worth a small bet at this stage. Forecasts can be wrong and again, he might be a better price come Sunday.

2020 Belgian GP Tips: 1 point Max Verstappen to win the Belgian GP @ 5.00 with Hills, SpreadEx, BET365

This looks like a race where most of the betting will be done on race day. Hopefully there will be some match bets about for qualifying which have proved profitable so far.

All the updates will be available posted on the TXODDS app, around 30 minutes before the start of each session, or earlier if possible. So, download the app to make sure you get James Punt’s race day 2020 Belgian GP tips.

-JamesPunt