2020 Cheltenham Day 1 Preview and Tips
2020 Cheltenham Day 1 Preview and Tips by Dave Stevos
According to Andy Williams’ song, Christmas is the most wonderful time of the year. However, most national hunt racing fans would tend to disagree. For us, nothing compares to March when the Cheltenham Festival rolls around. Not even COVID 19 is going to dampen our enthusiasm. The ground is threatening to dry out after an exceptionally wet Spring but it is likely to be soft for Tuesday’s action. Dave Stevos is going to try his hardest to end his recent barren run this week. Check out his 2020 Cheltenham Day 1 tips and preview below…
2020 Cheltenham Day 1 – 1.30: Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
A field of 16 horses will go to post for the opener on Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival. With William Hill paying out on 7 places, I’ll be backing one at big odds each way here. The one I like at 28/1 is the Peter Fahey trained Soviet Pimpernel. We backed him here earlier this season when he found only Quel Destin too good on heavy ground. That was a superb run considering he prefers better underfoot conditions. While he flopped at Fairyhouse next time in a Grade 1, he bounced back to form stylishly at Limerick over the Xmas (16f sft/hvy).
His rating of 142 leaves him with plenty to find at the figures with the likes of Asterion Forlonge, Fiddlerontheroof, Abacadabras and Shishkin. However, while most of the hype has concerned those four, I think that Quel Destin form is pretty decent in the context of this race. That horse is rated 156, Soviet Pimpernel was getting 6lb and he was also almost 2L ahead of the 148 rated Torpillo.
Peter Fahey’s charge was snapped up by Robcour after his Limerick win. According to the grapevine an initial 180k bid was rejected so you would think a pretty tidy sum changed hands. The fact he runs here instead of the County suggests his trainer believes in his ability and with 7 places on offer, Soviet Pimpernel looks a cracking each way bet at 28/1.
2020 Cheltenham Day 1 Tips: Soviet Pimpernel e/w @ 28/1 nap (7 Places W Hill)
2.10: Arkle Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
This is an intriguing race, even if only 11 go to post. I am a big fan of Fakir D’oudairies and he should be coming into this race unbeaten over fences. Mark Walsh had a day to forget on him when he finished 2nd to Notebook and I’m not sure the best horse won. I can see Walsh going forward in this race and making use of this horse’s natural jumping ability. He can reverse the form with Notebook, but the home challenge looks fairly strong.
Brewin’upastorm is a horse I like and he ran a blinder in the Ballymore last year. He has won both chase starts so far and he showed a willing attitude when getting up close home at Carlisle on his chase debut. Soft ground is a big negative for him though and current underfoot conditions have to be a worry. The one that I think is going to give them all something to think about is the Evan Williams trained Esprit Du Large.
This horse was nowhere near as good as some of these over hurdles, but chasing was always going to be his game. He handled a big step up in class in his stride at Sandown, winning a Grade 1 at the first attempt. I loved how he jumped and travelled that day and he quickened up well in the closing stages to fight off Nube Negra by almost 2L. Those two pulled 13L clear of the 152 rated Grand Sancy in 3rd. The ground looks perfect, he has been aimed at this race since Sandown. Esprit Du Large is the each way pick at 14/1.
2020 Cheltenham Day 1 Tips: Esprit Du Large e/w @ 14/1
2020 Cheltenham Day 1 – 2.50: Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
With General Principle already scratched, 23 will line up at the start for this year’s Ultima Chase. Vinndication carries top weight with a mark of 159 but I am backing two horses at the other end of the handicap. Followers of the blog will be familiar with Soupy Soups, a horse we backed earlier this season at Wincanton. He finished with a wet sail for 2nd that day in November and this is his first run since. Neil Mulholland’s charge is only 4lb higher here and clearly connections wanted to mind his mark with this race on the radar.
He has form on soft, though if the ground dried out it wouldn’t do his chances any harm. Judging by how he rattled home at Wincanton this stiff finish should suit. At 33/1 he is worth a small e/w investment. If the ground deteriorates, Big River could come into the reckoning at 25/1. This horse ran a very strange race in this last year. He was skewiff over the first, then after being prominent early he drifted back through the field after putting in some dreadful jumps.
It looked like he was going to finish tailed off, but when he met the rising ground he found a second wind. He pinged the last and flew home up the hill, finishing in a most unlikely 4th. That effort came off 140 and he is just a pound higher now. He jumped well when winning at Kelso last time and Derek Fox will likely drop him out in rear and hopefully get him into a rhythm. If Big River puts in a better round of jumping than last year he could run a massive race at 25/1.
2020 Cheltenham Day 1 Tips: Big River e/w @ 25/1; Soupy Soups 33/1 (both 6 Places)
3.30: Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)
With 17 horses going to post, this could be one of the most exciting Champion Hurdles for some time. Epatante is the market leader at 7/2 with Pentland Hills and Cilaos Emery next best in the betting. Epatante beat Silver Streak by 5L on soft at Kempton last time but this is a very different track. She flopped here last season too when well fancied and that has to be a worry for her backers. Pentland Hills won the Triumph here last year but his (many) connections would prefer a sounder surface.
Sharjah is a horse I really like but he is another one who would prefer better ground. Darver Star won’t mind the ground and a few shrewd judges have backed him at fancy prices. I think the value is gone from him now at around 12/1 but he should run a solid race. At the prices and with soft ground looking likely, I am taking a chance on Ballyandy. This is a horse that promised a lot when he was younger but he is only starting to realise his full potential now.
The New One stole his thunder for a few years but this could be Ballyandy’s big day in the sun. He is a 9yo now but he loves it at Cheltenham and he relishes soft ground. He showed real guts to beat Pentland Hills by a nose on heavy at Haydock last month, staying on dourly late in the day. Maybe one of his younger rivals will be too good, but Ballyandy looks sure to be staying on strongly up the hill. If the race is run to suit, Ballyandy could go very close at odds of 20/1.
2020 Cheltenham Day 1 Tips: Ballyandy e/w @ 20/1 (4 Places)
2020 Cheltenham Day 1 – 4.10: Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
The smallest field of the day, most likely due to the presence of two of the most talented mares around. This may not be the most prestigious races of the week, but two true heavyweights will be slugging it out in a match up that everyone is talking about. In the Willie Mullins corner is Benie Des Dieux, a 9yo daughter of Great Pretender who remains unbeaten when completing in 9 starts under rules. Her only defeat came when falling at the final hurdle in this last year with the race in the bag. She won by 21L at Gowran in January, soft ground is no problem and she is the one to beat.
Honeysuckle is the Queen in waiting, the question is when she will take the crown? Henry De Bromhead’s mare has swept all before her at a variety of trips under rules this term (7/7) and lots of experts gave her a real chance in the Champion Hurdle. She beat Darver Star by 0.5L over 16f at Leopardstown last time, gaining her third Grade 1 win in the process. This 20f trip probably suits her better though and it will be fascinating to see if she can beat Benie Des Dieux.
Last year’s heroine Roksana, Stormy Ireland and Lady Buttons are all very talented mares in their own right too. Lady Buttons is a really likeable mare and it would be great to see her run a big race. However, she would much prefer if the ground dried out considerably. I am really looking forward to watching this race but the result looks too tough to call. I’ll be sitting on the fence and won’t be having a bet.
2020 Cheltenham Day 1 Tips: No Bet
4.50: Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed)
A field of 20 will go to post for this 20f contest and Lord Schnitzel is the one that interests me. We backed him in the Thyestes last time and he ran well for a very long way. Visibility was poor but it looked like a mistake 2 out knocked the stuffing out of him and he finished a tired horse. The trip that day was 25f and the ground was very testing. The drop back to 20f looks a very good move as his form at around that distance is rock solid.
This 7yo son of Getaway has yet to win a race of any sort under rules after 10 starts. However, since going chasing he has shown snippets of form that suggests his mark of 139 could be workable. He was 3rd behind Faugheen on his seasonal return/chase debut, beat 13L over 20f. He proved that was no fluke with a fine effort on his next start at Fairyhouse (21f sft).
Matthew Smith’s charge finished 2nd in that Beginners’ Chase, 4L behind Carefully Selected. He had Captain Cj over a length behind and he has since won a Grade 2 by 6L. Dermot McLoughlin’s charge also gave Minella Indo a proper race at Navan. Smith went close at the festival with a horse called Rawnaq in 2015 so he knows how to get one Cheltenham ready. At odds of 40/1 with Bet365, Lord Schnitzel is the each way pick.
2020 Cheltenham Day 1 Tips: Lord Schnitzel e/w @ 40/1 nb (33/1 5 places available)
5.30: Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
The distance of this race was reduced by 2f after an attritional renewal in 2019. Even this 30f version will be a slog on the forecast ground and this is a race where stamina will be at a premium. Carefully Selected, whose form will hopefully be boosted by Lord Schnitzel in the previous race, is a best price of 15/8 at the time of writing. Patrick Mullins rides, he stayed on well to win over 24f on soft at Navan last time and it is easy to see why he is heavily fancied.
Jamie Codd is always a jockey worth following in these races and he rides Ravenhill for Gordon Elliott. This horse fell in the Troytown when sent off at just 9/1. He previously went agonisingly close in the Kerry National at Listowel (24f yld). All his wins under rules have come on good ground though, so soft ground may not be ideal. Lord Du Mesnil will stay and likes soft ground. However, he has had 6 runs this season and 4 of them were at 3 miles plus. My worry is that this could be one race too far for a 7yo.
Given the nature of this race and how things unfolded last year, I am going to recommend a small stakes e/w bet on one at a massive price. Ocean Cove stayed on well for 2nd behind Springfield Fox last time at Exeter. He is now 8lb better off for that 17L defeat. He won on his last start at 26f (sft). The way he did it that day at Warwick last March suggested that he would stay even further. The booking of Lisa O’Neill catches the eye too. At odds of 40/1 Ocean Cove is the e/w pick with 4 places on offer.
