2020 Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix Tips and Preview

A totally disastrous GP for us last week. A complete blank was drawn. Perez’ tangle with Verstappen on the first lap was pure JamesPunt, but shit happens, and we go again for the 2020 Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix with a truncated weekend. Due to the logistics of getting from the south of Portugal to north eastern Italy there is no Friday practice session. The teams will have just a one and a half hour session on Saturday morning to prepare for qualifying and the race. We saw something similar imposed on the teams by the weather, in Germany for the recent Eifel GP.

The Imola track will be familiar to long time F1 fans but it has not been used since 2006. Historically it was a very fast circuit but the tragic 1994 race weekend that saw Roland Ratzenberger and Ayrton Senna killed in separate accidents, lead to chicanes being introduced to slow the cars down.

Highly Technical Track

Todays lay out is a medium downforce, highly technical, narrow, anti-clockwise circuit. Overtaking will be difficult. The track has been changed since F1’s last visit. The final chicane is gone, and the long straight heading into Tamburello is now split, with two right-hand corners added in between. It is still a fast circuit which rewards power and it features slow medium and fast corners. There is nothing particularly strange about it. As such, Mercedes will be tough to beat, as usual.

It is hard to say what other track it is like. There is a bit of Monza in places a bit of Nürburgring, but it is its own beast. Which doesn’t make predicting the outcomes any easier other than to say Mercedes will win. The podium is very likely to be Hamilton, Bottas and Verstappen.

Kimi Raikkonen is the only driver to have raced in F1 here. However, many of the younger drivers have driven here in junior formulas. Alpha Tauri did a filming day here before the start of the season so Kvyat and Gasly have driven this year’s car here, albeit with demonstration tyres only.

The tyres this week are a step softer than last week. With just two days of action, the allocations are two sets of hard, two sets of medium and six sets of soft. It will be difficult, with just one practice session, to decide on a tyre strategy for qualifying and the race.

The weather forecast is very straight forward this weekend. Lots of pleasant autumn sunshine for all three days with temperatures in the high teens.

Mercedes Set To Dominate

This will be the weekend that Mercedes wrap up their Championships. Red have closed the gap but so far, just by not enough. Verstappen is always a threat, but he probably still needs Mercedes to have some sort of problem and that rarely is the case.

His teammate Alex Albon has this race to prove himself worthy of keeping his job for 2021. He won’t. The team have decided not to resign in bang in form Pierre Gasly and it looks like we may see Nico Hulkenberg finally getting a seat in a top team.

The best of the rest battle continues to be the sole remaining point of interest for the remainder of the season. Constructor wise, Racing Point are two points ahead of McLaren who in turn are four points ahead of Renault.

Racing Point are racing almost with just one driver. Lance Stroll, the driver being retained for 2021, hasn’t scored a point since the Italian GP. He had to pull out of one race due to illness which turned out to be Corona virus. One of the side affects of the virus for some people is a foggy head, a lack of clear thinking and it seems to be the case for Stroll. He drove like a novice in Portugal drew another blank. He isn’t under any pressure as his job is safe thanks to dad owing the company, but he needs to pull his finger out.

Perez picked up a couple of warnings in Portugal and is on the verge of a race ban if he picks up anymore points on his licence. That will cramp his style as the team can’t really risk losing him, although Hulkenberg is a handy stand in.

McLaren Need Both Drivers To Perform

McLaren are also having a problem getting both drivers to score. Norris was on the end of Stroll brain fade in Portugal and that cost him points. He hasn’t scored any points in the last three races. Sainz has either retired or been top 6 in the last four races. Norris’ best races have come on the quick circuits. Also, McLaren had their best qualifying session at Monza, another fast, old school circuit. They started third and sixth and finished second and fourth. The race was officially mad, but McLaren got their results largely on merit.

At Renault, Daniel Ricciardo continues to be very consistent, scoring in all of the last six races and only once out of the top 6. That was in Portugal, a track that I didn’t think would be kind to them and that was one of few correct assumptions. This, faster track is much more likely to suit their car and Ricciardo should be back in that top 6 again.

Esteban Ocon finished ahead of Ricciardo for just the third time this season, but it is Riccardo who will lead the Renault attack this weekend.

Leclerc vs Ricciardo

In the drivers’ Championship, it is quite close between Ricciardo and Charles Leclerc. The Ferrari driver is dragging a poor car into good finishes and now doing it on merit. He has qualified on the second row for the last two races and in Portugal was able to hold his position. Fourth position was his best finish since the two races at Silverstone where he finished third and fourth.

This is Ferrari’s spiritual home, the track is called the Autodromo Internazionale Enzo e Dino Ferrari, and Ferrari would love a big result here. They are developing the car race by race and in Leclerc’s hands at least, they are getting there. He is an exceptional talent, sadly wasted at Ferrari, but he will be one to watch this weekend.

Perez is always there or there abouts for Racing Point. He drove a superb race in Portugal, punted off the track on the first lap he pitted and re-joined the race in last place and some 30 seconds of the car in nineteenth. He worked his right up to fifth place before his old tyres where no match the fresher ones on Gasly and Sainz cars, and he had to settle for seventh place. Perez is another driver who will be vying for a top 6 finish.

Don’t Forget Gasly

Of course, we can’t forget about the winner of the Italian GP, Pierre Gasly. He has finished sixth and fifth in the last two GP’s and very much on merit. However, his race performance is better than qualifying so we can look at him again on Sunday.

This looks like a race where most of the betting will be done after qualifying when we have a better idea about the track and who it suits. There isn’t much in the way of early value. Hamilton is the 1.45 favourite to win his ninth race of the season.

Bottas was fastest in every session in Portugal, except in qualifying. He has been fastest in the first practice session for the last eight races, yet he is still available at 2.00. That is much better value than Hamilton to win the race.

2020 Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix: 2 points Valtteri Bottas to be fastest in FP1 @ 2.00 generally available

Another bet which looks to be a bit of value is for Carlos Sainz to finish in the top 6. The McLaren has looked good on these old school tracks and Carlos Sainz is in good form. He even led the Portuguese GP for a few laps after overtaking both Mercedes thanks to his softer tyres. He was superb at Monza, qualifying third and finishing second. Despite there being multiple candidates for those top 6 slots, he looks underrated. Sainz has finished in the top six in the last four races he has finished. So, hopefully his car will be rock solid this weekend.

2020 Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix: 2 points Carlos Sainz to finish in the top 6 @ 2.75 generally available

As usual any bets for the qualifying and race will be posted on the TXODDS app around 30 minutes before the start of the session.

-JamesPunt