2020 Gold Cup Stats That Matter

There is no doubt about what the big race of the week is at Cheltenham. The Gold Cup is the feature race on the final day and Dave Stevos is going to use a number of stats to narrow the field, just like he did for the Champion Hurdle. Using statistics since 2008, we will hopefully uncover the Cheltenham Gold Cup Winner. Check out the 2020 Gold Cup stats that matter below, and keep your eyes peeled for daily previews on the TXMarkets Official Blog…

Gold Cup Stats: Age

We used age as the first stat to narrow the field in our Champion Hurdle stats piece and we are going to do the same for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Since 2008, only the 6yo Long Run has bucked this trend. Every other winner in that period was aged between 7yo and 9yo. Only two 7yos scored, in comparison to five 8yos and four 9yos.

So, the stats clearly state that there is a 75% chance that the Gold Cup winner will be an 8yo or 9yo. Many shrewd judges fancy Delta Work to win this, but as a 7yo he misses the cut. Real Steel also gets the chop. However, they are the only two horses that are discounted due to their age. All the other horses fit the age profile, which illustrates just how open the 2020 Gold Cup is.

The Stats That Matter: Course/Distance Winning Form

You simply cannot ignore the fact that every single one of the last 12 Gold Cup winners had run at Cheltenham. 11 of the last 12 had won at 24f too, so hopefully these two stats can help us count a few more horses out. Incredibly, every single one of our remaining Gold Cup runners ticks those two boxes. They all have course form in the book and they have all won over 24f or further.

6 of the last 12 Cheltenham Gold Cup winners had previously won at the track. If we use this stat we can narrow the field substantially. Elegant Escape has never won at Cheltenham. Bristol De Mai. Monalee, Kemboy, Chris’s Dream and Clan Des Obeaux are others that have yet to grace the winner’s enclosure at Cheltenham . There are some high profile casualties but the 2020 Gold Cup Stats rule the roost. What they decree is final.

The Verdict

This has got to be one of the most open Cheltenham Gold Cups for some time. Some of the horses we discounted above have serious claims and of the 12 left in, you could probably make a case for at least 10 of them. However, we just have four horses to work with. They are Presenting Percy (10/1), Lostintranslation (13/2), Santini (7/2 fav) and the 2019 hero, Al Boum Photo (4/1).

Al Boum Photo won this well last year and does this really look a better race? I am not a Santini fan and I think his lack of gears will count against him. Some people think stamina wins Gold Cups but I believe a turn of foot is a necessity if the ground is anyway decent. Santini looks as slow as a boat to me and he will need very soft ground to win. Lostintranslation does have a turn of foot over this distance, as he showed when beating Bristol De Mai impressively at Haydock. However, his last run was a shocker and far from an ideal prep.

So that leaves Al Boum Photo and Presenting Percy. Last year Presenting Percy had a shocking preparation but this year it has gone a lot smoother. He has shaped very well on his last two starts and he does possess a bit of toe when he is at his very best. Al Boum Photo has run just twice and he looks sure to go close again. At the prices Percy looks the value, but Al Boum Photo looks the most likely winner. Whatever happens, hopefully it is an exciting race and all the horses come back in one piece. 

2020 Gold Cup Stats That Matter Prediction

1. Al Boum Photo (4/1).
2. Presenting Percy (11/1).
3. Santini (7/2).
4. Lostintranslation (13/2).