2020 Italian GP Tips and Preview

The 2020 season is all going a bit Ferrari betting wise. The Belgian GP was another disaster with absolutely nothing coming in. Hopefully this week’s 2020 Italian GP Tips perform a bit better. That the race itself was a total, crushing bore, which sums up the season. There is Mercedes, who won’t even let their two drivers race each other, in their own formula, Verstappen in his and then the rest just dreaming of a podium.

Is The Party Over For Mercedes?

I could just keep this brief and say that Lewis Hamilton will qualify on pole position and win. It will be a toss up between Bottas and Verstappen as to who finishes second and third. Renault should be fourth and fifth. Albon should be sixth, Stroll seventh, Perez eight, Norris ninth and Gasly tenth. That’s about it really.

But wait! What is that on the horizon? Is it a cloud over the Mercedes garage? Possibly. This weekend sees the introduction of the FIA’s much touted ban on ‘party modes’ in qualifying. Teams will have to operate the same power unit mode in qualifying and the race.

It is widely perceived that this is a very belated attempt to put some shackles on Mercedes. They have, and always have had (with the exception of 2019 when Ferrari where cheating) the most powerful qualifying engine setting. The team’s philosophy is to build a car that thrives in ‘clean air’ and build a power unit that can stick them on the front row at the vast majority of tracks. Then just drive off into the distance. To be fair, it may be crushingly dull and eye wateringly expensive, but it is why they win the championships every year without fail.

The party mode is very stressful on the power units and it is only deployed for a few laps in qualifying and can be used to attack/defend in a race but it can’t be used for very long as it shortens the life expectancy of the power units, and teams are restricted on how many they can use before grid penalties are applied.

One Mode

The teams will no longer have the luxury of picking and choosing when they can apply maximum power. They now have to pick a mode that will be as competitive in both qualifying and the race as possible, without shortening the life span of the power units. Or, if they don’t mind grid penalties, they could just go for glory for one race and hope that it doesn’t blow up until after the finish line.

Nobody is quite sure what effect this new regulation will have. There is a general expectation that it will make Mercedes qualifying advantage smaller. However, such is the advantage they have, Mercedes can very probably reduce qualifying performance, and still be on pole position. They will then be able to run in a mode that gives them more power in the race. Taking with one hand, and giving with the other.

The regulation change isn’t going make Mercedes relatively slower. Every power unit manufacturer has modes for qualifying and they will all have take the same steps as Mercedes. Yes, Mercedes will lose some of the big qualifying advantage they currently have, but they do have a lot in hand.

Take last weekend’s Belgian GP as an example. Mercedes where able to run their car with significantly more downforce/drag in order to protect them in a possible wet race. They were still 0.5 seconds ahead of the next best car that was set up with much less downforce.

Big Pace Advantage

Across the seven qualifying sessions this season, Mercedes have had an average pace advantage of around 0.8 seconds. In F1 terms, that is big. They can very comfortably use less power in qualifying, and still qualify on pole position. It really doesn’t matter if they have a 1 second advantage in qualifying, or 0.1 second advantage. They still start at the front, in clean air, but now have a bit more power over the race distance.

The only hope that this regulation change will upset the current form of the various teams is that if it means Mercedes would not be qualifying on the front row. That looks very unlikely to happen, unless one or more of the chasing teams decide to be prepared to take grid penalties further down the line. Hopefully that would allow them to qualify and race with the maximum amount of power that will see them through to the end of a race without blowing up the power unit.

A Kamikaze approach to racing. It would be great to see, but while it would mean that Mercedes might lose a race or two. They would still win the championships.

Can Any Team Challenge Mercedes?

There is also the matter of the actual cars. How many teams have a car that could really challenge Mercedes even if they ran their power units in Kamikaze mode? Red Bull, probably, Renault and McLaren-Renault, maybe, Racing Point, maybe. The rest, no.

Would Red Bull take the risk of losing places in the championships, and the prizemoney associated with that, in order to go for a glory race? That is the $64 thousand dollar question.

I don’t know. Firstly, there is the question as to its feasibility technically and then the question of long-term goals championship wise. Looking at the constructor’s championship, McLaren, Racing Point, Ferrari and Renault are separated by just nine points. Do they take the risk that a Kamikaze approach will work? That they can score more points by maxing out at one race but taking big grid penalties at the next. What if the calculations are wrong and the Kamikaze driver’s car blows up before the end of the race? No points and a grid penalty for the next race. The prizemoney hit could be many tens of millions of dollars.

Formula 1 has become more conservative over the years. Where are the mavericks like say, Eddie Jordan? He would see the value to sponsors of having a car that could win the odd race but finish mid-table. If he could get the sponsors to stump more money that he would lose in prize money, then that’s is what he would do.

Nowadays the teams are all very corporate, risk averse and a bit boring to be honest. They have shareholders to answer to and accountants don’t like risk. A bird in the hand and all that.

It is a nice thought that this new Party Mode ban will suddenly make some teams take more risk, that races will be more unpredictable and interesting, but it is likely to be just that, a nice thought. We shall just have to wait and see, but I am not holding my breath.

2020 Italian GP Tips: Past Form

Looking at the driver and team form in the turbo-hybrid era we can see the usual trend, despite Monza being an unusual track. It is one of the few that really stand out in terms of the demands on the car. It is the most power sensitive, low downforce circuit on the calendar and as such, you would expect to see some unusual results. Nobody builds a car just to be good on low downforce circuits, that would be suicidal. Not even Ferrari would do it just to win their home race.

Of the six races in the turbo hybrid era, Mercedes have won five and had three 1-2 finishes. Lewis Hamilton has won four and never been off the podium. Bottas has been on the podium for all his three years at Mercedes. Lewis Hamilton has been on pole four times, but Mercedes have had ‘just’ two front row lock outs. For the last two years, Ferrari have been on pole and they won the race with Charles Leclerc last year.

Of course, we now know that Ferrari won because they were cheating with their power units. They got found out and are really paying the price now. Ferrari are just fifth in the constructor’s championship and falling fast. Renault are very likely to overtake them this weekend.

Racing Point Have A Decent Record

Other teams and drivers who have gone well here include Racing Point. Last year was the first time they didn’t have a double points finish here in the turbo hybrid ear. That was all down to Vettel punting Stroll off the track when he was well up in the points. Stroll then made an unsafe return to the track and got a penalty for his troubles. He eventually finished twelfth and ruined a nice bet.

Being a very power sensitive track, Mercedes powered cars have done well. Williams scored a lot of points between 2014 and 2018 but with the dodgy Ferrari power units last year was their first duck in six years.

Red Bull have performed with credit, despite always being down on power. However, they haven’t had a podium in the turbo hybrid era. That should change this weekend, but we saw Renault have their best weekend of the season here last year (fourth and fifth place) and they were very strong in low downforce trim in Belgium last week.

Not Much Joy In Monza For Max

Verstappen has not enjoyed Monza very much with a fifth place in 2018 being his best result. He is not a shoe in for a podium this weekend and the threat from Renault is very real. Both Red Bulls finished behind the Renaults last year and while Honda have improved their power units, so have Renault. The Renault chassis does look very potent in low downforce trim and their power unit has suddenly found its sweet spot.

There is school of thought that has Mercedes helping Renault with their power units in recent weeks. Daimler own Mercedes but also have a 5% share in Renault-Nissan. In return for Renault withdrawing their protest into Racing Point (and burying any problems for Mercedes’ involvement in the matter), Mercedes have helped Renault to extract the maximum from their power units. It is a story that has some credence.

McLaren have struggled with a lack of power here in the past, but their Renault powered car should be capable of scoring points this weekend. Carlos Sainz is having the season from hell. There was something wrong with his car for the first five races of the season, but after the team changed his chassis and the power unit, he was back to normal with a sixth place in Spain. However, bad luck struck last weekend when his exhaust broke on the formation lap and he was not able to start the race. Monza has not been a good track for him with eight place in 2018 being his only top 10.

In between the Mercedes and Renault powered cars and the Ferrari underpowered cars, we have Alpha Tauri. Honda power is more of an asset these days and they should score their first points of the turbo hybrid era at Monza.

2020 Italian GP Tips: Current Form

The Ferrari powered cars are in big trouble this weekend. Ferrari were humiliated at Spa and it will be even worse this weekend. The fact that there will be no fans allowed is a blessing for the Ferrari team. There would be a riot otherwise. Kimi Raikkonen, in a customer car, finished ahead of both the Ferrari works cars. Not only is the Ferrari power unit dog shit, the chassis is too. Ferrari, well Leclerc, over performed in the early races but in trying to make up for their lack of power, changes to the car have made it slower. Ferrari are organisationally poor at the best of times but in a crisis? They are in a tailspin right now.

Haas are also handicapped by Ferrari power but Grosjean was just a couple of seconds behind the works cars, despite having very little running at all in FP1 & 2. With more time to perfect their set up, Haas, the absolutely skint Haas, would likely have beaten Ferrari as well.

If it wasn’t for Williams, Ferrari could have faced the prospect of finishing last at their home GP.

Another Hamilton Win On Horizon

There is very little to suggest that we will see anything other than another win for Lewis Hamilton. Mercedes have had five front row lock outs this season, and it was only the wet weather in the Stryian GP than blotted their copy book. They have re-established their power advantage now that Ferrari have been found out. The party mode ban might narrow the gap and it is something to keep an eye on, but they have performance to spare. Tyre wear can be an issue for them, but Monza isn’t really known for being a tyre killer.

Verstappen should pick up his seventh podium of the season, but we do have one more team who look like they finally could end the Mercedes/Red Bull podium duopoly this weekend.

Renault have threatened a big weekend of a few weeks now. We were able to back Ricciardo at 51.00 for the 70^th Anniversary GP at Silverstone. He qualified fifth but had the race from hell and finished just fourteenth. Last weekend, on the fast, low downforce Spa Francorchamps circuit, he qualified fourth and finished fourth.

That is two fourth places in the last four races this season. He was fourth here last year, in a less competitive car and this is Ricciardo’s big chance to get his first podium for Renault. He was just 3.5 seconds off third place last weekend and 1.2 seconds off third place in the British GP.

Can Ricciardo Go One Better

Can he go one place better this weekend? He has a good chance but his odds are just 3.75, a long, long way off the 51.00 of a few weeks ago and indeed he was 51.00 this time last week. It is hugely frustrating to spot a potential big price outsider with a real chance, only for it to not come off but to get close enough to alert the bookies to the threat. In horse racing parlance, Ricciardo is a bit exposed now.

Esteban Ocon in the other Renault has been sixth here twice for Force India but he too in now very much on the radar at just 7.00 for a podium place. He is a couple of places off Ricciardo in the qualifying averages which explains the difference.

The real juice in the Renault odds has been squeezed but they are hard to resist.

2020 Italian GP Tips: 2 points Daniel Ricciardo to have a podium finish @ 3.75 with William Hill, Unibet

2020 Italian GP Tips: 2 points Double top 6 finish for Renault @ 2.40 with Pokerstars Sports

Alex Albon is starting to get to grips with this years Red Bull. The team have made a change to the front wing and the car is less sensitive and edgy. Albon has really improved his qualifying performance in the last two race weekends, sixth in Spain and fifth in Belgium last weekend. His qualify average was 9.2 before the Spanish GP but he has been 5.5 in the last two races.  He was sixth here last year in his Monza debut F1 race and while he might only have the third fastest car this weekend, but another top six finish is within his grasp.

2020 Italian GP Tips: 2 points Alex Albon to finish in the top 6 @ 2.25 with Betvictor

McLaren don’t have the same kind of performance as Renault on low downforce tracks, but the Renault power unit is finally delivering the goods and it will be an asset on this power sensitive circuit. Sainz’ wretched luck can’t go on forever and his pace is good, averaging 7.8 in qualifying, and with the Ferrari powered cars out of the frame this weekend, McLaren should get both cars home in the points here for the first time since 2014.

2020 Italian GP Tips: 2 points Double points finish for McLaren @ 2.05 with Ladbrokes

The updates for qualifying and the race will be posted on the TXODDS app around 30 minutes before the start of each session.

-JamesPunt