2020 Russian GP Tips and Preview

There was a return to normality in the Tuscan GP as Mercedes dominated. They were fastest in qualifying and that theme continued in what was a dramatic race. It was a 1-2 for Hamilton and Bottas and our Formula 1 tipster thinks there could be more of the same in store at Sochi. Check out James Punt’s 2020 Russian GP Tips and preview below…

Russian Grand Prix Preview

The last two races can be classified as mad and just about useless as a form guide to this week’s race. The two races saw more red flags than a Labour Party conference and while mildly entertaining the Mugello race was over before it started. Max Verstappen was the interesting runner, but we never got to see if he could have beaten the two Mercedes.

Even with two red flags and free pit stops and new tyres galore, the two Mercs were wearing out their tyres quite badly. Verstappen was out by the third corner, but his car was already suffering with an electronic problem which would have ended his race in any case. In the end it was another front row lock out and 1-2 race finish for Mercedes.

Mercedes Dominance To Continue?

This weekend Formula 1 heads to Sochi for the Russian GP. First run in 2014 the race has always been won by a Mercedes and there have been four Mercedes 1-2 finishes. I wonder who will win this year?

Red Bull are the only semi-effective opposition and their lead driver has failed to finish the last two races. Honda seem to have a problem with their power units.

Lewis Hamilton will in all likelihood equal Michael Schumacher’s record of 91 GP wins on Sunday and take his fifth Russian GP win. Valtteri Bottas was told to let Hamilton pass in 2018, denying the Finn of a sure win. Hamilton has only been on pole position here once, with Rosberg getting two, Bottas one and Ferrari for the last two years.

It isn’t a particularly good track for Hamilton, despite him having four wins. He was trailing Rosberg here in 2015 but the German retired and Hamilton took the win. Hamilton lost out to Rosberg in 2016, Bottas won his first F1 race here in 2017 but was ordered to hand the win to Hamilton in 2018.

Bottas Could Excel

The track has something of a reputation for treachery. Bottas was robbed of a win in 2018 and last year it was Sebastian Vettel who broke an agreement between the two Ferrari drivers. He was behind pole sitter Leclerc on the grid but used his teammates slip stream, as was expected. He had agreed to then give the position back but reneged on the agreement. Karma bit him however and he later retired from the race.

Many regard Sochi as Bottas’ best track. He was third for Williams in 2014 and fourth in 2016. Since joining Mercedes he won in 2017, was the moral victor in 2018 and was second in 2019. One reason is that he is very good on low grip track, of which this is one. It only gets used once a year and is very ‘green’ as a result. The track surface is particularly smooth and grip is at a premium. Bottas is often fastest in free practice 1 on many tracks but as the track surface rubbers in, Hamilton gets up to speed.

Bottas has been fastest in FP1 for the last five races and on a track he is strong at he must have a very good chance to make it six in a row.

2020 Russian GP Tips: 2 points Valtteri Bottas to be fastest in FP1 @ 2.50 with Betvictor

The Sochi circuit is a street circuit although not as tight as Monaco or Singapore. It features 19 corners, 9 of which are 90 degree corners which require good stability under braking and good traction out of them. There is little in the of fast sweeping corners but there is one very long semi-circular corner. The starting straight is long and the pole sitter is a bit of a sitting duck at the start. Only two pole position drivers have won the six races here. That said, overtaking is difficult so a good qualifying performance is important, just that pole position can be a bit of a liability.

Sochi isn’t a pretty track, it is not an exciting track but as a vanity project for Vladimir Putin, it is lucrative for Formula 1. The track is set to host some twenty thousand spectators this weekend.

It is not hard on tyres and Pirelli are bringing the three softest compounds for this weekend. It is expected to be a one stop race and tyre management will not be at a premium. That sounds like good news for Mercedes whose car can be a bit hard on the tyres on some tracks.

The weather forecast may make those soft tyres suffer more than the actual track itself. Friday will see hot and sunny conditions with temperatures up to 31 degrees. Saturday will see some cloud, a 40% chance of showers and temperatures a little lower at 28 degrees. Sunday will be back to hot and sunny conditions and 29 degrees. It will be important to listen to how the teams are managing tyre temperatures in practice.

2020 Russian GP Tips: Current form

The last two races are not good form guides. A red flag in Italy and a big in race penalty for Hamilton allowed a win for Alpha Tauri’s Pierre Gasly and that was a freak occurrence. Two red flags and no less than eight retirements at Mugello was another freak race although it was still a Mercedes 1-2 result.

Albon got his first F1 podium but he was flattered by the retirement of Max Verstappen. The Thai driver is improving and feeling more comfortable with the Red Bull, but he is still some way off Verstappen’s performance level. Albon is not a big fan of this track as the repetition of right angle corners is a bit boring.

The reliability of the Honda power unit must be a worry for Red Bull. Verstappen is clearly getting frustrated, referring to his retirement in Mugello as a ‘fucking shit show’. However, back to back race retirements are not a reflection of his performance. On certain tracks, he has a chance to win but he can do nothing if his power unit fails.

Honda say that they have identified electrics and software problems which were the cause of the retirements. Changes have been made to prevent a repeat.

The Red Bull is improving, and the team are very strong at development through a season. They expect this weekend to be a strong one for Mercedes but that high temperatures might give Verstappen a chance to put them under some pressure.

McLaren Looking Comfortable

McLaren remain fairly comfortable in third place in the constructor’s table. Sainz’ form in qualifying is good but Norris is struggling a bit on Saturdays lately. He has been behind Sainz in the last four qualifying sessions and while Norris has 24 more points than Sainz, it is the Spaniard who is the faster driver now. He has enjoyed very little luck and he was taken out in the melee in Mugello last time out. McLaren were sixth and eighth with Sainz and Norris respectively and something similar or better can be expected.

Racing Point have benefitted from getting both cars home more often than Renault or McLaren and remain in fourth place. However, Renault are starting to come at them, and Racing Point are not planning on many big upgrades. Racing Points best performances have come in Hungary and Spain and that suggests that this track will suit them.

Racing Point did bring an upgrade for Mugello but it was only on Lance Strolls car. It worked well, worth 0.2 – 0.3 seconds and the plan was to have it fitted on both cars this weekend. However, Stroll’s big crash at Mugello means they do not have enough new parts to be able to put the upgrade on both cars, and Perez will be without them once again. Advantage Daddies boy at Racing Point this weekend.

Renault Progression Continues

Renault continue to make progress and Ricciardo had his fourth 4^th place of the season at Mugello. That elusive podium can’t be far away, but he is likely to need one of the top three drivers to have a problem. Ricciardo is very positive about his car’s performance on high downforce tracks, of which this is one. It was a weakness in the first half of the season and their best performances had come at the lower downforce tracks, but they have more of an all-round performer now.

Renault are just nine points behind Racing Point, and it was interesting to see Ricciardo easily outpacing Perez in that final 12 lap mini race at the end of the Mugello race. The Aussie is another who isn’t that keen on the circuit and it has not been a happy hunting ground for him in the past. Ocon on the other hand has finished seventh and ninth in his two races here and he likes it.

Faltering Ferrari

Ferrari will be bringing ‘some minor updates’ to Russia but clearly, they are looking much more at getting next year’s car sorted out, rather than trying to polish his particular turd. Leclerc performed very well in Mugello, but the cars lack of grunt left him defenceless at the end of the long straight. On this track their chronic lack of power could once more be exposed. The long start/finish straight will leave them exposed. Both drivers are odds on to finish in the top ten which looks a bit unrealistic.

Alpha Tauri continue to close the gap to Ferrari in sixth place in the constructor’s table. Monza winner. Pierre Gasly was brought back to earth with a bump in Mugello, retiring on the first lap after being caught up in a multiple car collision. With eight cars retired, it was easy for Daniil Kvyat to finish seventh. This is Kvyats home race and while he has finished fifth back in 2015, he hasn’t scored a point since. His Alpha Tauri is certainly capable of a top 10 but odds of 2.00 are no more than fair.

Haas, Alfa Romeo and Williams remain well adrift from the competitive midfield.  The only time Alfa Romeo have scored points this year was in Austria and Mugello. Those two races saw a combined total of 15 cars retiring. That level of attrition has never been seen here.

Russian Grand Prix Ante Post Race Selections

There are some races where value is very thin on the ground, and this is one. The way in which this season has panned out makes it very easy for the bookmakers to price up. We all know that Mercedes will qualify 1-2. On a track where they have won every year, Mercedes will win again. Not difficult. Hamilton or Bottas is the only question.

Hamilton is the 1.47 favourite to win, Bottas the 4.33 second favourite. Hamilton has won six of the nine races this season. We managed to back Bottas to win in Austria and Verstappen at Silverstone and nobody saw Gasly winning at Monza. Can Hamilton be beaten this weekend? If he can, Bottas is the man most likely to do so.

Hamilton’s record here looks better than it really is. Bottas has strong positive mental associations with this track, it being the scene of his first win. He is also ‘due one’ from the team for handing the 2018 win to Hamilton. Mercedes won’t give him a win because they are Team Hamilton, but Bottas is getting angry. He feels very much as the number two and he returns to a scene of another indignity at the hands of his own team.

2020 Russian GP Tips: Bottas Looks A Bet

Bottas was very close to Hamilton’s pace at Mugello all weekend but things conspired against him again. He was out qualified by just 0.06 but took the lead of the race into the first corner. That was soon rendered irrelevant when the race was red flagged. At the re-start Hamilton got a tow from Bottas’ car and took the lead of the race, undoing all Bottas good work. He was fuming. He demanded a contra strategy to Hamilton at the pit stop but he was called into the pits before Hamilton, who then stopped and put on the same tyres as Bottas. No contra strategy. No undercut and Bottas chances had gone.

Will Bottas’ anger combined with a track on which he is strong be enough to beat Hamilton? It might and the odds are good enough for a small bet.

2020 Russian GP Tips: 1 point Valtteri Bottas to win the Russian GP @ 4.33 generally available

The rest of the field are very easily assessed. Red Bull are the second best team and Verstappen is by far their best driver. Again easy for the bookies.  The midfield group can be a bit more interesting with Renault, McLaren and Racing Point being able to get a car into the top 6 and maybe a podium with some luck. But again, we pretty much know who will be able to score points.

Ferrari and Alphas Tauri are fighting over any scraps around eighth – tenth place and they need some attrition for that to happen. Then we have the back makers who won’t score any points unless we have mass retirements.

It is all too predictable.

This week I fancy Racing Point to be ‘best of the rest’. They went very well on another high downforce track in Hungary and with their Mercedes copy car, they should be good on a track that has always been good for the Merc’s. However, that is not hard to spot and Perez is just 1.70 to finish in the top 6 as is his Racing Point teammate, Lance Stroll. A double points finish for Racing Point? Should be doable but the odds? Just 1.67. How about a double top 6 then? 2.25. They have only done it once! No value.

Top 10 Market Tight

We have 13 drivers at odds on to finish in the top 10 and that must be the easiest market to price up in sport. It is devoid of value. However, somebody is very keen to lay Ocon on the Betfair Exchange. The Frenchman is generally a 1.57 shot with the bookmakers for a top ten finish but he can be backed at 1.78 on the exchange and to a four figure sum.

I can’t see any great reason why. Renault did struggle in Hungary, another high downforce track so that could be it, but while they are both high downforce, they are quite different layouts. Hungary is a busy track, flowing from corner to corner while this is more of a point and squirt layout. The Renault has improved over the season and they should be able to get both cars home in the points at all tracks given a clear run.

2020 Russian GP Tips: 2 points Ocon to finish in the top 10 @ 1.78 with Betfair Exchange

You never know, things might get more interesting after Fridays free practice and if there are any more bets, they will be posted on the TXODDS mobile app around 30 minutes before the start of qualifying and the race.

-JamesPunt