2020 Turkish GP Preview and Tips

It’s time to revisit another old Formula 1 track this weekend as F1 heads to Turkey for the 2020 Turkish GP. Last used in 2011 the Istanbul Park circuit is regarded as Herman Tilke’s finest work. The track borrows a few elements from other tracks to produce an interesting lap. Its signature feature is turn 8 which is actually four corners in one. It will be taken flat out and will put great strain on the drivers neck (it is a rare anti-clockwise track) and the tyres.

Only four of the current drivers have raced here. Lewis Hamilton, who will be looking to wrap up his seventh World Championship this weekend. Sebastian Vettel, Kimi Raikkonen and Sergio Perez all have track knowledge. The younger drivers are at a slight disadvantage as there has been no junior formula racing here. The modern day simulators will have given the younger drivers a good idea of what to expect.

Fast Track for the 2020 Turkish GP

The track is a fast one and not unlike Spa in its characteristics and demands. Overtaking is relatively easy as the track is wide with more than one line through the corners. It won’t be the processional race that we had at Imola last time out.

The weather looks like being mostly cloudy with temperatures in the low teens. There is a 40% chance of a light shower on Saturday Afternoon.

Recent form tells us that Mercedes are, despite having stopped development work some time ago, still the dominant team. They have been on pole position for every race this season. They also won all but two races and only one of those was on merit.

Is there any reason to think this weekend will be any different? Not really, but if like me, you like to grasp at straws and hope to be right once in a while, there has to be a question mark over the tyres this weekend.

We will be bored silly by talk about Turn 8 this weekend.  But, when we used to race here, one of the tricky things about the track was how the tyres would grain due to the stress put on them going through such a long left hand corner. In qualifying, if you attacked turn 8, your tyres were shot to bits by the final sector. If you took it cautiously, you lost a lot of time. The drivers have to find a compromise and just forget about the perfect lap.

Tyres To Take A Beating

Over a race distance the tyres are going to take a beating and in the old days, this was a multiple stop race. We may have a race were teams are running different tyre strategies which can mix things up. However, such is the gap between Mercedes and Verstappen and the rest of the field, it is likely that those three will qualify on the medium tyres and have the best race strategy.

The track has been resurfaced and this throws in another variable.  Portimão was also newly resurfaced and it proved to be very low on grip. That made for an interesting opening few laps but ultimately the results were not much different to normal. We have the same tyre compounds as they had in Portugal so we could see some spin outs, especially on Friday.

With new tarmac, cool temperatures and the same range of tyres, the form from Portimão could well be a decent guide. The tracks both feature elevation changes and some blind corners. It will be a tough physical challenge.

2020 Turkish GP Best Of The Rest?

As usual, the most interesting race will be for who can be best of the rest. The battle for third place in the constructor’s championship is incredibly close. We if we didn’t have Mercedes and Verstappen in Formula 1, this would be a classic season.

All the talk will be about how great Hamilton is and how brilliant Mercedes are but that is just a function of a good driver in the biggest and best team, spending their way to title after title. But the battle for best of the rest is actually competitive, fortunes fluctuate, it is unpredictable but only one bookmaker does a best of the rest market, and that only after free practice. The art of bookmaking truly is dead.

Just one point separates Renault in third and McLaren and Racing Point tied on 134 points, in fourth and fifth. Then there is the battle to be the top Italian team, with Alpha Tauri still closing in on Ferrari. There are interesting sub plots but the bookmakers only look at the headline acts, maybe a couple have some group betting after qualifying, but ante post wise? Not an effort is made.

Renault Have Potential

Renault, as a manufacturer team should do, is still working on their car, still improving and getting results. Ricciardo has finished third in two of the last three races while his teammate has had three DNF’s in three of the last five races, all mechanical failures. The Renault is quick, but unreliable.

That this track is somewhat like Spa, flags up Renault as having good potential this weekend. They were flying at the death in Belgium thanks to good tyre management and something similar will be required here.

McLaren are quite similar to Renault. They are struggling to get both cars home. Just one double points finish in the last five races but they have been a little unlucky, a little careless and a little unreliable. They are very close to being good.

The McLaren is still being developed but they haven’t made any great strides forward. The potential is there for a good result but is just isn’t quite coming together.

Racing Point Underperforming

Racing Point have under-performed. Yes, they had a 15 points deduction for illegal parts on their car which has allowed Renault and McLaren to move above them, but for much of the season they have had the third best car. Racing Point don’t have the same budget has their nearest rivals and at this point in the season, they aren’t going to be doing much in the way of development, so it is becoming a little harder for them.

Many pundits were tipping Racing Point to be Mercedes main rival before the start of the season and sure to be picking up podiums and maybe a win. So far, they have had a single podium finish, and that was at the officially mad Italian GP, won by an Alpha Tauri.

In recent races, Racing Point have been handicapped by Lance Stroll. Since his fortuitous third place at Monza, he hasn’t scored a point in five races. He had to miss one after testing positive for Covid 19, but he is just performing poorly. The team say he has taken a beating mentally and physically, which begs the question, why not rest him while he recovers? Nico Hulkenberg could step in a do a better job.

The team also chucked away a podium in the last race. Perez was sitting third, on a track were track position was king, but the team pitted him for fresh tyres under a safety car. He didn’t need them, nor did the car behind him who inherited his 3rd place. It was a nice present for Ricciardo and Renault and it may end up costing the team millions of dollars.

Perez On The Way Out

Racing Point are getting rid of Perez next season. He missed two races thanks to Covid 19, but since he returned, he has finished in the points for eight straight races. He has scored 82 points, Stroll 57, even though Perez missed two races and Stroll just one. This is a team not making the most of itself, and that is not like them. Oh yes, and they have signed the dreadfully out of form Sebastian Vettel for next season.

Ferrari are a one driver team now. Vettel has picked up two points from the last seven races and he hasn’t made Q3 for the last ten races. He famously crashed into teammate Mark Webber here back in his Red Bull days and you almost have to expect him to make a dog’s dinner of things this weekend.  Charles Leclerc on the other hand is contesting for podiums and top 6 finishes. He has scored 85 points, Vettel just 18.

Alpha Tauri On The Up

Coming up on the rails are the fast finishing Alpha Tauri’s. Gasly had a fortuitous win at the Italian GP but failed to finish in the two the races held in Italy. However, he qualified fourth at Imola last time out, a season bets by a margin. His teammate Kvyat made Q3 for the first time this season and finished a fine fourth in the race.

The team has scored points in every race bar the Hungarian GP but only twice have they had a double points finish. Surely, they must have a much improved chance, if that qualifying pace shown at Imola can be continued. Kvyat has not even been able to have a simulator run on this track, so he goes in totally blind which doesn’t help.

Ante Post Selections

In common with these venues where we haven’t been to for a while, and the fact that the new surface is an unknown, it is circumspect to hold fire until after free practice before having any confidence in who might do what.

The race win will be between the usual three suspects but there is no value there at this point.

We have had one of the drivers from outside of the top 3 finishing on the podium in four of the last six races. It requires one or more of the top 3 drivers to retire or have a serious problem and recently we have seen Verstappen have DNF’s in all three Italian races, and Bottas at the Eifel GP. It does happen and perhaps late in the season, reliability might be suspect as the power units are getting old.

There is not much point in getting involved in podium betting right now. The odds are not likely to change much for the likes of Perez, Leclerc and Ricciardo. They might in the case of the two McLaren drivers who are being given dismissive quotes of 23.00 to finish on the podium.

Sainz is a possible, he performed well in Portugal and at Spa but reliability isn’t rock solid and it is a competitive market. I will take another chance on him to finish top 6. Of the last five races he has completed his placings have been 6/2/5/6/7. He has failed to finish in three of the last seven which is a worry but so long as things go OK, he likely to be in or very close to the top six.

2020 Turkish GP Tips: 2 points Carlos Sainz to finish in the top 6 @ 2.88 with William Hill

We backed Valtteri Bottas to do his usual job of being fastest in FP at Imola, but he wasn’t for the first time in nine races. The fact that we have this newly surfaced track, the hardest range of tyres and cool weather conditions, means we will have the low grip conditions in which he excels. My only worry is that he may have changed his M.O.. He was so often fastest in free practice only to be pipped to pole by Hamilton, that he may have decided to keep something up his sleeve for qualifying, and not to show his hand in practice. I can’t resist a small bet that in these conditions, he will top the time sheets again.

2020 Turkish GP Tips: 1 point Bottas to be fastest in FP1 @ 2.00 with Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power

Updates for qualifying and race day will be posted on the TXODDS app, around 30 minutes before each session.

-JamesPunt