2020 Tuscan GP Tips and Preview

Although James Punt’s tips went awry at Monza, at least it was a good spectacle. The race produced one of the biggest shocks in recent memory as Alpha Tauri and Pierre Gasly took the chequered flag in first place. It was an incredible result. Hopefully we have a bit more luck from our bets this weekend. Check out James Punt’s 2020 Tuscan GP tips and free preview below…

Shock Result In Monza

After two of the most boring Grand Prix in history, Formula1 served up a once in a blue moon classic at Monza. It was still terrible from a punting point of view but at least it was entertaining. Sadly, it was an outlier and normal service should be resumed this weekend with the Tuscan Grand Prix at the Mugello circuit in Tuscany, Italy. The track is normally used for Moto GP races but is owned by Ferrari. They have used it for testing in the past.

The race is also to commemorate the fact that this will be Ferrari’s one thousandth Grand Prix. Ironic, given that Ferrari are now in one of its worst states in its history.  Ferrari have fallen to sixth place in the constructor’s championship. They are in very real danger that they will end the season as the second-best Formula 1 team in Italy.

Alpha Tauri, the onetime Minardi Formula 1 team, won the Italian GP on Sunday. It was a refreshing change but obviously it was the result of a chain of events which condemned Lewis Hamilton to the back of the pack after his team failed to notice that the pit lane was closed, when calling him in for a pit stop. It was a schoolboy error, but a welcome one for racing fans.

Slow Start Costly For Bottas

Valtteri Bottas made a very poor start and was never able to recover. His Mercedes becomes a more ordinary car when it is in traffic. He was further handicapped by some damage to his car, overheating problems and then there was no opportunity to just turn the power up to get over overtaking potential.

Max Verstappen just didn’t have any competitive pace in an ultra-low downforce set up. The team retired him from the race when it was clear the game was up. The usual ‘big three’ where out of the frame and the odds on that happening are very high.

Pierre Gasly found himself in the right place at the right time. He was just about able to reach the finish line before he was caught by the chasing McLaren of Carlos Sainz. That win means Alpha Tauri are now just 14 points behind Ferrari, who failed to even get a car to the finish line on Sunday. It was a humiliating day for Ferrari and inevitably, heads will roll, and the crisis will deepen.

Tuscan GP: No Course Form

We have virtually no form guide for this weekend’s race. There was a Formula 1 test here in 2012 with Romain Grosjean setting the fastest time. Ferrari have used it for testing too, but not for some time. Alpha Tauri and Ferrari used the track for a pre-season filming day. So, at least their two drivers have had a recent sight of the circuit.

Ferrari also took a 2018 car to the track and Leclerc and Vettel got some decent runs over the circuit. All the teams will have been provided with data in order to be able to run their simulators. But, basically, everyone is coming here with a lot to learn. Ferrari will have more track knowledge but nothing that will be enough to see them back to full competitiveness.

The track looks excellent and is said to be very fast and a very physically taxing one. After the actual start of the race, the drivers will not require anything lower than fourth gear. It features 15 corners and one long straight. Overtaking looks like it will be challenging and having just one DRS zone won’t help. With so many corners we will see the cars putting more downforce on the cars than we saw last week.

Fast Track

Max Verstappen drove a road car around the track recently and describes it as very fast, with no slow corners and that it will be very hard on the tyres. Overtaking will be hard and there will be a premium on qualifying and tyre management. Two stops are likely and there has even been talk of three stops.

Renaults Esteban Ocon has been driving the track on his home simulator. His opinion is that the track will be medium to high downforce with a lot of tyre degradation and very tough on driver fitness.

This will be a real challenge for the engineers. Finding the best compromise between having enough downforce to cope with the fast corners but not so much that the car isn’t a sitting duck on the straight. A high downforce set up is likely to be the way to go as the circuit is defined by its corners.

The weather forecast for the weekend is much like last weekends. Dry, warm and sunny for all three days with temperatures reaching 26 degrees for the race. That is moving towards the danger zone for Mercedes.

2020 Tuscan GP Tips: Current form

This is a different sort of challenge to Monza but its high-speed nature will make it power sensitive. This means more bad news for the Ferrari powered cars. However, it will not expose that weakness as harshly as Monza did. The emphasis here will be high speed corner performance, rather than straight line speed. There is an 800 metre straight, but the majority of the lap involves corners.

Charles Leclerc was able to qualify fourth for the British GP, another fast, old school circuit. So, it will be interesting to see how Ferrari get on here. I suspect they will be back in the middle of the pack again and may be able to pick up some points.

The design of this year’s car placed the emphasis on increased downforce. The FIA clampdown on the Ferrari power units is the reason why the car doesn’t work. On low downforce tracks, with the downforce taken off, the lack of power is brutally exposed. On tracks where more downforce is required Ferrari are better.

The British GP saw Leclerc qualify in fourth place and at Hungary, the highest downforce that we have visited in 2020, Ferrari qualified fifth and sixth. This track is a high downforce track and the teams will have to run with more downforce than they have in the last two races. I expect Ferrari return to the top 10, at least for Charles Leclerc.

Vettel On His Way

Sebastian Vettel has decided to piss on Ferrari’s parade and announce that he is to drive for Aston Martin next season. On the eve of Ferrari’s big anniversary. Classy. Why Aston Martin want him is a mystery to me. I guess its all about the brand wanting a big name, star driver, even if he is past his best.

Mercedes continue to dominate on all tracks that this will be no different. Their only Achilles Heel has been tyre wear at the Silverstone circuit. This looks like a track which will be tough on the tyres and if the weather is warm and sunny, we might see them having some problems. Pirelli are not taking any chances and are bringing their hardest range.

Pirelli clearly feel that this will indeed be track that is very hard on the tyres. Lots of high-speed corners and what is said to be highly abrasive tarmac means that they given the circuit a maximum score for tyre stress. Silverstone revisited? Very possibly but they did qualify 1-2 in both races there, won one and were second in the other, so failure is relative for Mercedes. However, we can have some hope that the Empire might not strike back this weekend.

Red Bull To Bounce Back

Red Bull will be more at home on this type of track, so we should see Verstappen back on the podium. Albon had a poor weekend at Monza but with this track being more Red Bull friendly, he should be able to secure a top six placing and he really needs to. Pierre Gasly’s win at Monza has inevitably got people talking about a return to Red Bull for the inform Frenchman. Albon is under the microscope and under pressure.

McLaren are looking in good form again after troubles for Sainz were holding them back. He was strong all weekend at Monza and would have been a deserving winner, but second place it had to be. This is a very different test for the car but they have scored points at every race this season. They will be in the hunt for a top 6 placing but with Red Bull likely to be much stronger, a podium finish will be much more difficult to achieve. The car looks good in high speed corners and this track should suit.

While Pierre Gasly was fortunate to win the race, everything fell his way. Carlos Sainz was on course to finish second even without the red flag mixing up the order. Yes, Red Bull were not at their usual pace and Bottas was struggling with his car. However, Sainz had qualified third and was running in second place right from the start. Lando Norris was running in third but he lost out to Lance Stroll when the race was red flagged. Stroll was one of the lottery winners and McLaren where unlucky not to get a double podium finish.

McLaren Moving In Right Direction

McLaren have certainly made good progress and while it is still not a complete package, it is a good car on fast tracks. With the hardest range of Pirelli tyres suiting them better, expect another decent weekend for McLaren…if they can keep on top of tyre wear issues.

Renault seem to be stronger in low downforce trim and this looks like it will be tougher for them than Monza and Spa. They are a difficult team to predict, inconsistent and a little disappointing. They were reasonably good at Silverstone and very good at Spa so they can do fast circuits, but they flopped at the technically challenging Circuit de Catalunya and this track does have similarities to Silverstone and Barcelona.

We shall just have to wait until after Friday’s free practice session to draw any conclusions. That goes for everyone of course, but Renault are particularly hard to pin down. Daniel Ricciardo said after the Monza race that they are still lacking a bit in highspeed corners which is a concern for this track. However, Renault scored a double top 6 finish at the British GP and in Belgium. That was very much down to the fact that the Renault does seem to be kind to its tyres.

Tyre Troubles

At the British GP, using the same compounds as this weekend, Ricciardo and Ocon only qualified eighth and ninth but finished fourth and sixth, making up places late in the race as Mercedes and McLarens tyres were falling off the cliff. Belgium suited their low downforce package better, but again Ricciardo was flying at the death with his tyres in great shape, finished fourth and set the fastest lap of the race.

Racing Point picked up a fortuitous podium at Monza and Perez has put his car on the second row in three of his last four races. They have generally disappointed over a race distance, however. Their best race was in Spain, so they have a good car, but I remain unconvinced that they fully understand it and like Renault, they are hard to predict. Perez has been dropped by the team to make space for Vettel, so his motivation might be a little lower this weekend.

Alpha Tauri got lucky at Monza. Gasly showed good pace in Fridays free practice but come qualifying they were in tenth and eleventh, very much where they stand in the pecking order. They have only failed to score points in the Hungarian GP, and this is a very different proposition to that layout. A few more points should be theirs and it will be fascinating to see who is the top Italian team this weekend. Both drivers got in some laps here before the start of the season and that will have done them no harm.

Haas, Alfa Romeo and Williams will remain firmly at the back and unlikely to score any points between them.

Party Mode Ban

The jury is still out on what, if any, effect the ‘party mode ban has had. Clearly it didn’t affect Mercedes potency in qualifying. Where it did have an effect was in the race. Valtteri Bottas couldn’t overtake after he had a bad start. His car had some damage which muddies the water. But then we saw Lewis Hamilton coming through the field after his penalty. It must be said that it wasn’t quite like a hot knife through butter. Hamilton did make it all the way up to seventh place but that was one place shy of where Mercedes thought he would get.

Hamilton complained that only having one power unit mode made for boring racing and that he was unhappy with it. That suggests that it has blunted Mercedes sword to some extent. Ricciardo on the other hand said it made little difference and that deploying power from the batteries did allow drivers to be aggressive when trying to overtake. Perhaps Mercedes had just become overly reliant on their ‘magic button’.

2020 Tuscan GP Tips: The Verdict

Clearly this track is going to be a very interesting challenge for everyone and perhaps a big one for Mercedes. Their nadir this season was not Monza, it was Silverstone. They were remarkably lucky to win the British GP, with Hamilton crossing the line with just three tyres and Bottas out of the top 10 after his tyre failure. On the same track and softer tyres, the following weekend, Mercedes were comprehensively beaten by Max Verstappen.

The layout of the Mugello track is going to be a big challenge for teams to manage their tyres. The Mercedes car produces a lot of downforce and almost too much at times. At Silverstone the strengths of the car ended up being its weakness. The car worked the tyres too hard and both drivers suffered tyre failure. The high downforce high power concept works perfectly on most tracks, but it didn’t at Silverstone. The Mercedes got away with it, by the skin of their teeth.

Mercedes Could Reduce Downforce

Mercedes are now aware that they have a problem and no doubt will have spent time and a small fortune on addressing it. Perhaps reducing their downforce a little would help tyre wear but it would also hurt performance. We shall have to wait and see but there must be a question mark over Mercedes race pace this weekend. Qualifying will not be a problem however and we can expect another 1-2 on Saturday.

A good grid position will be crucial this weekend and those that can get closest to Mercedes are the most likely to be able to take advantage of any tyre problems they might have. That means Max Verstappen. He has a qualifying average of 3.75 and is a regular on the second row.

Other likely lads are Sergio Perez in the Racing Point. His qualifying average is 7.17 but that is skewed by the team’s dreadful performance in the wet qualifying in the Stryian GP. Remove that and Perez is averaging 5.20 and in his absence at Silverstone, Nico Hulkenberg qualified third for the second race. The two McLaren drivers are next best, closely followed by Lance Stroll in the other Racing Point.

Over a race distance, Verstappen is the boy. Ignoring his two DNF’s Verstappen’s average finishing position is 2.17, lower than Hamilton’s 2.25. That is twisting the statistics, but it does highlight that Verstappen is a very dangerous opponent, consistently. Contrast that with Perez’ race average of 7.33 and Stroll’s 6.00 (flattered by his 3^rd at Monza). If Mercedes do struggle with tyre problems as per Silverstone, Max can pounce.

2020 Tuscan GP Tips: 1 point e/w Max Verstappen to win the Tuscan GP @ 6.50 with William Hill, Betvictor

The likes of Sainz, Norris and Ricciardo have had their moments and certainly the two McLaren drivers should be sniffing around for any crumbs from the top table, but don’t forget that Sainz also suffered a late race tyre failure at the British GP. But there is one more, a dark horse, dismissed as a no hoper by the bookmakers, but who might just surprise a few people this weekend.

Charles Leclerc.

Yes, this year’s Ferrari is something of a dog. But every dog has its day. This particular dog has already had two podium finishes and a fourth place. It doesn’t like qualifying, averaging just 8.87 and it doesn’t like straight lines, but on quick tracks that need a decent dollop of downforce, it can surprise.

Leclerc Worth Watching

Leclerc qualified a season’s best fourth at the British Grand Prix, using the same tyre compounds as we will see this weekend, and thanks to Bottas’ tyre woes, he brought it back in third place. It was harder work in the following weekends 70^th Anniversary race, which featured softer compound tyres. Then he could only manage eighth on the grid but finished fourth.

If Ferrari haven’t forgotten how they did it, and that is entirely possible, they should be able to give Leclerc a car that allows him to show his incredible skills to much better effect that he has in the last few races. There is only one proper straight to handicap him with the rest of the lap being a series of various corners flowing into each other. The fact that he did a pre-season test here, albeit in a 2018 Ferrari, is not going to hurt his chances.

2020 Tuscan GP Tips: 2 points Charles Leclerc to finish in the points @ 2.10 with William Hill

Tuscan GP Tips: 1 point Charles Leclerc to finish in the top 6 @ 9.00 with BET365, Skybet, Marathonbet

2020 Tuscan GP Tips: 0.5 point Charles Leclerc to finish on the podium @ 34.00 with BET365, William Hill, Marathonbet

With tyre wear likely to be a big issue Renault might be running well late in the race as per Silverstone and Spa. Ricciardo picked up the fastest lap at Spa and he is worth risking a minimum strength stake bet to do it again.

2020 Tuscan GP Tips: 0.5 point Ricciardo to set the fastest lap of the race @ 41.00 with Ladbrokes

Friday will be a big learning day and there should be a few more opportunities over the weekend. As usual qualifying and race day updates will be posted on the TXODDS app, around 30 minutes before the start of each session.

-JamesPunt