The FA Cup of darts starts this weekend. James Punt is looking to make it two winning outright tips in a row. Gerwyn Price won the Belgian Darts Championship at a canter, advised at 7.50. James also tipped up Nathan Aspinall in this at 126.00 last year! Hopefully we have more luck this weekend. Check out James Punt’s 2020 UK Open Tips and Preview below…

2020 UK Open Tips: Open Draw Adds Intrigue

The UK Open is the first major of the season and features a unique FA Cup style format. There are no seeds and a random draw is made for every round after round three. There are 160 players taking part over just three days. Multiple boards in operation means that most of the early matches are not televised.

The first round sees 64 players compete. There are 16 Rileys qualifiers, ostensibly amateur players but in reality seven of them are professional or semi-professional players who do not have a tour card. They are joined by the top 8 players from both the Challenge and Development Tours. The other 32 are players ranked 97 to 128 on the PDC OOM. All of the first three rounds are played as a best of 11 leg format.

The winners then face the players ranked 65-96 on the OOM in second round. The winners of those matches then face the players ranked 33 – 64 on the OOM. The top ranked 32 players enter the competition in the 4th round when the random draw is made.

Luck Will Play A Part

This random draw can mean that the top two players in the betting get drawn together. There is an element of ‘the luck of the draw’ playing a part in determining the tournament winner. Last year we had Mensur Suljovic drawing Peter Wright for example. However, looking at the list of the tournament winners in the last six years (since this venue was used as the host venue) it is hard to call any of them real outsiders.

Last year’s winner was Nathan Aspinall and at odds of 126.00 he was an outsider in the betting. However, he was certainly a player in great form, a World Championship semi-finalist and a pro tour winner. He was tipped up here on the basis that his odds where just very, very wrong.

The other winners at Minehead have been Gary Anderson, Peter Wright, Michael van Gerwen (x2) and Adrian Lewis, all past or future World Champions. Occasionally we get real outsiders having good runs, such as Andrew Gilding making the semi-final in 2015 and Robert Owen and Dave Pallet reaching the 2018 semi-finals. Corey Cadby (remember him?) made the final in 2018 but again, he had already won a pro tour event before that.

2020 UK Open Tips: Cream Rises To The Top

The message is that while the luck of the draw does exist, the top players, the form players, tend to rise to the top just like any other tournament. If you do fancy a big priced outsider to have a good run, then back them on the exchanges and trade out for a profit as they progress.

Players with very good tournament form in Minehead are Michael van Gerwen with two titles and another semi-final and Peter Wright with one win (his first major title) and making two other finals.

Finding players coming into the tournament in great form is the key. This year, amongst the favourites in the betting, the form players are Peter Wright who won the World Championship on New Year’s Day, The Masters at the start of February and player’s championship 5 a few weeks later. His win rate in 2020 is excellent and arguably, he should be starting as favourite.

However, he appears to have suffered a dip in form just at the wrong time. He suffered a heavy defeat in the Premier League in Dublin, a 1-7 drubbing by Gerwyn Price. At the weekend he was also under par in the Belgian Darts Championship. He made it to the semi-finals, so it is only a dip in form, not a loss. However, he never looked totally convincing despite some good averages in the latter rounds.

MVG The Bookies’ Favourite

The bookmakers can’t have anyone other than MVG as favourite, despite him not having won a title in 2020. That is not to say that he is playing poorly, just that others have been better. His tournament results in 2020 read RU/R2/R3/R4/RU/QF/R3/RU/R3. Mere mortals would be delighted with that form but is it the form of a 3.25 favourite?

Gerwyn Price is the second hottest player having made three pro tour finals so far in 2020, winning one and winning the Belgian Darts Championship at the weekend. He has become one of the most consistent players in the world. His form figures in the major championships last year read SF/R1/R1/RU/W/RU/SF. The worrying thing for his opponents is that he is still getting better.

Nathan Aspinall, the defending champion, is another in great form. He once again reached the World Championship semi-finals and backed that up with a pro tour title in early February and beat MVG in the Premier League shortly after. The Asp had a decent run in the first euro tour event of the year, reaching the quarter final, but lost to the phenomenon know as Dirk van Duijvenbode, despite averaging 103 in defeat. He is in great shape as he sets about defending his title.

2020 UK Open Tips: Home Comforts For Anderson?

2018 champion, Gary Anderson, lives not far from the venue, has started 2020 by winning players championship 1 in early February and while is overall win rate isn’t great, his scoring is strong, and he can be a factor here once again. He is under a degree of pressure as he is defending a lot of ranking points from his 2018 title win. He has already slipped to 7^th in the rankings and an early exit here could see him out of the top 10.

Other players who have won Player’s Championship titles in 2020 are Ryan Searle, another local, and The Polish Eagle, Krzysztof Ratajski. Searle’s form has dropped off since that win but Ratajski remains a live contender and he made the quarter finals in Belgium at the weekend.

Players that have not won a title this year but who are winning a lot of matches include Glen Durrant, 2014 champion Adrian Lewis, rising German star Gabriel Clemens, Danny Noppert and Ian White (who is averaging 100 in the players championship).

Bully Boy In Solid Form

Michael Smith is another player who is having good runs in tournaments and he made another final in Belgium at the weekend, but he lost again. It is becoming a habit. He reaches semi-finals or finals and loses. Yes, he can score very heavily and win plenty of matches, but he just isn’t converting his many chances into wins. At 21.00 you may well get a run for your money, but a winners pay-out?

SnakeBite Worth A Bet

The one name that keeps cropping up is Peter Wright. He won his first major here in 2017 which means he has very positive mental associations with the tournament and venue. The fact that he was runner up in 2015 and 2016 underlines this. He tops the averages from the opening six Player’s Championship events (101.46). Wright has been hitting ton plus averages in over 50% of his matches this year and very nearly set a new world record in PC 5 when he had a 120 average. He has become a winning machine.

Wright is the 8.00 second favourite and that looks like a value bet given his excellent current for and tournament form.

2020 UK Open Tips: 2 points Peter Wright to win @ 8.00 Betfair, Paddy Power

Gerwyn Price is another player in great form who has also played well at this venue. He was runner up to Peter Wright in 2017, a quarter finalist in 2018 and a semi-finalist last year. He has become a player who is a feature in nearly all the major tournaments. In major televised tournaments, not including the Premier League, in his last 19 events he has won two, reached three other semi-finals and 5 more quarter finals. His tournament form in 2020 reads QF/R3/RU/R1/RU/W/W. He has lost just one of his last nineteen matches and that was a final to Peter Wright.

2020 UK Open Tips: 1 point e/w Gerwyn Price to win @ 9.00 with Ladbrokes, Coral (1/2 the odds 1-2)

Nathan Aspinall was a big winner for us here last year and he has improved since then. He seems to like this time of year as he has reached two consecutive World Championship semi-finals at the turn of the year. Aspinall also reached the Masters semi-final this season, won PC2 in early February and won this title last year. He isn’t quite the same winning machine as say Price or Wright. But, he is scoring very well is knows how to win tournaments.

2020 UK Open Tips: 1 point e/w Nathan Aspinall @ 17.00 with Betfred, Betfair, Paddy Power

For a couple of outsiders at big odds who might have a good run if the luck of the draw is favourable, we can consider Devon Petersen and Danny Noppert.

Devon Petersen was a quarter finalist here back in 2015, his highest finish in a TV event. His career has never really taken off since then. However, he has been working hard on his game with help from Wayne Mardle and has started 2020 in great form. He is putting in 4-5 hours a day on his game and he is brim full of confidence. He has even changed his diet in order to lose a bit of timber and says he feels much better mentally for it.

Petersen has won eight of his last ten matches. He is scoring very heavily (averaging 98 in the player’s championship, the 6th best average). Peterson also reached the semi-final of PC5, losing 5-7 to the red-hot Peter Wright. The treble 20 is suddenly his friend and if he can continue this run of great scoring then he could have a good run. He can be backed at 251.00 but he might be better backed on the exchanges, if and when the liquidity kicks in.

2020 UK Open Tips: 0.5 point e/w Devon Peterson @ 251.00 generally available

Danny Noppert has won one pro tour title, back in late 2018. He continues to progress and reached the final of the World Series of Darts late last year. So far this year he has reached the quarter final of PC3 and the semi-final of PC4. He isn’t usually the heaviest of scorers, but he hit a 108.9 average in the 2nd round of the Belgian Darts Championship at the weekend. When he gets his scoring regularly up in the high 90’s or better, he will start adding more titles to his CV.

2020 UK Open Tips: 0.5 point e/w Danny Noppert @ 101.00 generally available

For UK Open match betting through out the tournament make sure you check the TXODDS App for regular updates as the tournament unfolds. It is a very busy tournament and regularly throws up some great match betting opportunities.

-JamesPunt