2020 Xmas Ante-Post Tips by Dave Stevos
Xmas 2020 Ante-Post Tips
The final Saturday of racing before the Festive period at Ascot and Haydock went well for us. Enrichissant grabbed place money for us at 14s in 4th but I was hoping for more as they turned for home. Electron Bleu was up with the pace before a mistake and traffic problems cost her any chance. 18/1 NAP Sam’s Adventure was given a great ride by Brian Hughes to land the Tommy Whittle. Clyne, advised e/w at 12s, ran a really brave race off top weight and finished 2nd at 5s. Our 16/1 NB Belfast Banter capped off a decent day by nabbing place money in 5th. Dave Stevos has had an early look at three top upcoming races, check out his Xmas 2020 Ante-Post Tips below…
December 26: 3.00pm Kempton: King George VI Chase
With just a few days to go until the 2020 King George VI Chase, 10 horses remain. We were on Clan De Obeaux last season at 9/2 but he is a much shorter price this year. Cyrname re-opposes and if I had to pick between the two, I would stay loyal to last year’s hero. He is clearly suited by this C&D and he was scintillating here in 2018 and in 2019. I can see no reason why he won’t give his running again and Paul Nicholls’ will have him primed for his hat trick attempt.
However, one horse that is coming into this race under the radar big style is Waiting Patiently. This horse is as enigmatic as they come. Unfortunately, injuries have probably prevented him from showing his true class in the recent past. Ruth Jefferson (and her late Father before her) have always believed that this son of Flemensfirth belongs right at the very top and I think he could easily outrun his massive odds of 25/1, granted a bit of luck.
Patiently Worth Waiting For
In 2018 he was sent off at just 4/1 in the King George. He was badly hampered and unseated Brian Hugehes at the 9th when still travelling well within himself. The fact he has only raced three times since shows how hard he has been to keep right. However, his trainer has reportedly had a clear run with him this time. The debate has always raged as to whether he can stay 3 miles or not. If you look at his pedigree, there is every chance he will.
His last run in December 2019 was a cracker in the Tingle Creek over 16f. Waiting Patiently was only a length behind an in-form Defi Du Seuil in 3rd, staying on strongly after the last but just failing to reel in the front 2. He was only 0.75L behind Un De Sceaux and 17L in front of Politologue, seriously good form. That was a race that proved he has a proper turn of foot, even if he could only manage 3rd.
Track To Suit
3 miles around Kempton is suited to stayers that have more than one gear. That is why Clan Des Obeaux thrives at this course and over 24f I think it could be perfect for Waiting Patiently. As already mentioned, he suffered misfortune in this race in 2018 and he was still going very well at the time. He also hacked up in a 20.5f listed chase (gd/sft) back in Jan 2018 at Kempton so clearly, there are zero worries about the venue.
The ground is currently good to soft at Kempton, which is ideal, and once it isn’t bottomless it should suit the 9yo son of Flemensfirth. Brian Hughes will likely ride and he gave Sam’s Adventure a peach for us at Haydock. Hopefully he can chart a clear round on Waiting Patiently at Kempton and if he does, I think this horse is capable of running a massive race at odds of 25/1.
Xmas 2020 Ante-Post Tips King George VI Chase: Waiting Patiently e/w @ 25/1
December 27: 2.50pm Chepstow: Welsh Grand National
20 horses have stood their ground for the 2020 Welsh Grand National at Chepstow. As ever, it is an ultra-competitive race and it looks as though the ground will be heavy. Some old warriors like last year’s 2nd and 3rd Truckers Lodge and Yala Enki are back for another go in Wales’ biggest race, but neither look attractively handicapped. The Two Amigos was 5th last season and he is back to try again off the same mark. He has shaped well on both outings this season but the suspicion is that this trip is just a shade too far for him.
We were on Ramses De Teillee when he beat Yala Enki so bravely at Cheltenham. He wasn’t suited by Aintree last time and a return to a more conventional track will suit. Runner up in 2018 off 144, he is now 9lb higher and he has no margin for error off his current rating. 6yo Secret Reprieve is another interesting one for Welshman Evan Williams. He hosed up off 130 last time over 23.5f (hvy) here 3 weeks ago and he is just 4lb higher. However, odds of around 5/1 make no appeal whatsoever.
River A Big Price
Lucinda Russell and Derek Fox are no strangers to success in Grand Nationals. They teamed up with One For Arthur to win at Aintree a few years back and they have a fascinating contender for the Welsh Version in Big River. Long time readers may remember me tipping this horse for the Ultima Handicap at Cheltenham. He ran a massive race that day to grab 5th over an inadequate 25f trip and he was doing all his best work at the finish.
That excellent effort came off 141 and he races off that exact mark at Chepstow. I thought he actually shaped rather well at Cheltenham on his seasonal comeback when well beat in the end behind Ramses De Teillee and Yala Enki. He was entitled to need that outing and he did stay on pleasingly in the closing stages.
That run should have left him spot on for this stamina test. Heavy ground suits him extremely well (form figures of 11P121) and I think this trip will really suit him. Rain is forecast too, so underfoot conditions are unlikely to improve before the big race. Big River looks feasibly handicapped, he will love the ground and at odds of 25/1 I think he holds outstanding e/w claims.
