2021 Austrian GP Preview and Tips

With the 2021 Austrian GP being held on exactly the same track as last weekend’s race, it should be easy to predict? In theory, yes.

We had the same situation last year when the Stryian GP followed the Austrian GP on this track. They were the first two races of the year while this year we are at race nine and the cars are more sorted, drivers settled and so on. There were also different weather conditions with the second race here having a fully wet qualifying session.

As will be the case this weekend, the tyre compounds were different. We move to one step softer compounds for this race. Friday’s first free practice session will be given over to testing Pirelli’s new tyre which will be used at the British GP. This not an admission that Pirelli were at fault for the recent blow outs in Azerbaijan. Definitely not, it is just a coincidence, of course.

Both races here last year were won by Mercedes, both from pole position. But, it was one each for Bottas and Hamilton. The first race saw seven retirements, the second just three. Only one driver, Sergio Perez, finished both races in the same position. It would be foolish to think that Sunday’s race will be a simple cut and paste from last weekend.

2021 Austrian GP: Max The Man To Beat

However, it is hard to see anything other than another win for Verstappen. His win on Sunday was his most comfortable yet. He was never in danger of losing and was singing the praises of how well balanced his car was, comfortable to drive and it was a cruise and collect win. It had the feel of the moment the championships really are heading Red Bulls way.

Lewis Hamilton said afterwards that his car needs developments if they are to challenge Red Bull. The bad news for him is that Toto Wolff confirmed that there will be no more developments for this year’s car. All their resources are going into next year’s car. Red Bull will inevitably do the same thing, but I guess they will develop this car a little more to ensure they win the titles. It has been a long time between drinks for them and they do not want to miss this opportunity.

Wolff’s proclamation that there will be no more developments on the Mercedes was later contradicted by technical director, James Allison. He said that ‘there are a reasonable number of things to come that will make us faster in future races’. There are things that are work in progress but just not ready yet. But, it seems clear that Mercedes are not prioritising 2021 as much as Red Bull are.

Sunday’s win was Verstappen’s third win on this track making it his winning most circuit. He has the luxury of just telling the engineers to leave the car like it was and treat Friday as a tyre test, just generating more data and making sure they get the most from the softer tyre on Sunday.

Mercedes Playing Second Fiddle

Mercedes finished second and third last weekend, hardly a disaster, but they were never in the hunt for a win. Sergio Perez was fourth in the second Red Bull. He needs to up his game and get a podium finish. Qualifying remains his weakness. Five times from eight races, he has failed to qualify on the second row. He got lucky with Bottas’ penalty elevating him to the second-row last weekend. However, getting out qualified by a McLaren? Unacceptable.

His race was ruined by a slow pit stop but Verstappen was able to drive off into the distance while Perez was squabbling with Norris and Perez. The attempt to two stop and attack Bottas with fresh tyres nearly paid off, but he needed another lap.

We backed Bottas to beat Hamilton last weekend. Unfortunately, his three place grid penalty for a silly spin in the pit lane put paid to that. He did out qualify Hamilton again and he still looks the value to be the better of the two Mercedes this weekend.

Surprising Speed From Norris

Outside of the big two there were some surprises last week. We know McLaren are fast, but Norris’ qualifying pace was a surprise and his best of the year so far. Norris’ problem was that the race pace wasn’t there to really fight with Perez and Bottas and he didn’t put up much of a fight. With Perez getting stronger on Sundays as he settles in at Red Bull, the chances for anyone outside the big two getting a podium are much harder than in the opening races. A race of high attrition seems the only hope for a surprise but the cars are very reliable these days. With the removal of many of the sausage kerbs here, this track is less of a car breaker than it used to be.

Norris has now finished top 5 in seven of the eight races so far and he has been fifth in the last three. Fifth is as good as it will get unless the big two have problems. Norris’ job is to beat the Ferrari’s and the Red Cars were very impressive last week. Their usual form pattern flip flopped, with their qualifying pace poor but their race pace very good. Leclerc went to the back of the pack after a clumsy collision with Gasly on the opening lap. However, he fought his way back and finished seventh, one place behind teammate, Carlos Sainz who had started from twelfth.

Leclerc Mistake Proved Costly

We can only speculate where Leclerc would have finished had he not dropped so much ground with that early stop to fit a new front wing, but beating Norris would have been possible. It was not the only mistake Leclerc made, he hit Kimi Raikkonen when overtaking him and was very lucky not to get a puncture. It is a part of his game that he needs to improve.

Leclerc is the better of the two Ferrari drivers in qualifying but Sainz is every bit as good over a race distance. The Spaniard is giving up 2.5 places on the grid on average to his teammate. That is simply too much.

Ferrari went from being dire in France to very competitive last week. It seems like the team made a change to the way they go about setting the car up. Their car lacks power compared to the other teams and they had tried to compensate by taking off downforce. That led to less grip, especially in fast, long duration corners, and the inevitable tyre degradation. It was very bad for them in France, so they took a different route last week. Giving up straight line speed on a power sensitive circuit sounds mad, and it cost them in qualifying, but over a race distance, it kept their tyres in good condition and their race pace was good.

Sainz Hampered By Hamilton

Carlos Sainz said his race pace was nearly as good as the Red Bulls and he should have been able to challenge Norris but for being held up by Lewis Hamilton. Sainz had been lapped and it took him 14 laps to finally get round to unlapping himself. He is entitled to do so but he said he was worried about interfering with Hamilton’s world championship battle. In the end Ferrari asked Mercedes nicely if Hamilton wouldn’t mind letting Sainz past. He did so, as he wasn’t really racing Verstappen, just circulating in second place.

One fly in Ferrari’s ointment this weekend is the shift to softer tyres. They do seem be better on the harder compounds. Sainz starting on the harder medium tyre last week allowed him to be quick in the opening stint, going longer than those top 10 cars on the soft and making up places as a result.

This weekend the medium tyre will be last weeks soft. So, Ferrari are likely to favour the hardest tyre in the race and the shift to the softer compounds may blunt Ferrari’s pace. However, they should still be able to compete with and perhaps beat both McLarens. The Ferrari might have the pace to challenge at least one of the Mercedes on this track but if they struggle in qualifying again, they may being giving up too big a lead. We will see on Saturday.

Alpha Tauri Battling Hard

Alpha Tauri are keeping their nose ahead in the battle for 5th in the constructor’s championship. Gasly qualified an excellent sixth last week. However, he was out on the first lap after being hit by Leclerc and then colliding with a few others, breaking his suspension. Tsunoda managed to pick a point for finishing fifth.

Having Honda power here is a benefit and Gasly was 2/-/6/6 in free practice, so qualifying sixth was no surprise. His average qualifying position this season is 6.71 but his average finishing position is 8.71. I can see him out qualifying Ferrari and Ricciardo again this weekend but in a clean race, the Ferrari’s look too quick for him to remain top 6 and he makes no appeal at 2.00.

Aston Martin had a mixed race. Stroll had a good drive and finished eighth. Vettel was off his game, locking up under braking and killing his tyres. We had both to finish in the points, but it seems they are one of the teams right on the Q2/Q3 cut mark. If Ricciardo can get his act together and Gasly has a clean race, it will be harder for Aston Martin to get one car home in the top 10, never mind two.

Ocon Off The Boil

Alpine picked up ninth place with Alonso and he said that was the very best they could have done. Like Aston Martin, they are very much on the cusp of the top 10. They are vulnerable to better races from Gasly and Ricciardo. Ocon, having signed a new three year contract two weeks ago, has gone completely off the boil.

George Russell was running eighth last week before a power unit problem meant he had to retire. He will be in the running again, but he too can’t afford a better race from Ricciardo and Gasly. Russell won’t get many better chances than last week, and he makes little appeal at 2.62 to finally break his points duck at Williams.

The weather last week teased us with the threat of rain which only arrived after racing had ended. This weekend looks like a repeat. Partly cloudy, warm, if a little cooler than last week, on Friday and Saturday, with a slight chance of light showers on Saturday afternoon. Sunday sees more cloud, cooler temperatures, around 20 degrees and a 65% chance of rain.

A wet race would mix things up and as a result there is little point in going in with any big ante post bets. We may have a better idea of the weather on Sunday morning.

Ante Post Bets

Max Verstappen is a best priced 1.67 to win the 2021 Austrian GP. It is a fair price, a bit generous, as the Red Bull was comfortably the best car here last week. It is hard to see anything changing that this weekend, except rain throwing in a random element. Verstappen is proven in the wet so it is not a huge concern. However, it introduces a greater degree of luck into the proceedings.

Lando Norris is just 1.40 to have his eighth top six finish of the season. He was a little fortunate last week that the Ferrari’s had to come from so far back to get close to him. If Ferrari can qualify a little better and not have incidents on the opening lap (and Leclerc has form that here on two occasions) then Norris will have competition for best of the rest.

Charles Leclerc has five top 6 finishes, and he should have had another last week. Sainz did finish sixth last week, his third of the season, and if he had been a bit more positive about unlapping himself, fifth was on the cards. That from starting twelfth underlines just how strong the Ferrari race pace was.

2021 Austrian GP Tip: 1 point double top 6 finish for Ferrari @ 3.20 with Ladbrokes

Bottas didn’t beat Hamilton last week thanks to his grid penalty, but he was quicker in qualifying and it is worth going in again at generous odds. This is a strong track for Bottas and things can’t keep on going wrong for him forever.

2021 Austrian GP Tip: 1 point Bottas to beat Hamilton @ 5.00 with Ladbrokes

There is very little ante post value around for the 2021 Austrian GP. The fact that last week’s race was at the same venue sort of kills the betting a bit but there should be a few more on Sunday morning, when the important weather forecast will be more reliable, although last week showed us that even then, calling the weather here is tricky.

-JamesPunt