2021 Austrian GP Raceday Update

Find out who James Punt thinks is worth backing in his 2021 Austrian GP Raceday Update:

First up, the weather. Officially there is a 50% chance of rain but the local forecaster says that the chances are low and any rain is, like last week, most likely to arrive after the podium presentation. It will be notably cooler however. Yesterday saw air temperatures of 25 degrees for qualifying and track temperature of 52 degrees. This afternoon will see 21 degrees but more importantly, much more cloud which will mean the track will be considerably lower than yesterday. It will be much more like the conditions the teams had on Friday, and the teams should have a good idea about how the various tyres will behave.

Yesterday’s qualifying session was one of the best for years. Verstappen very nearly lost pole position thanks to being the first car out in the final run. He then gave Lando Norris a bit of a tow and the McLaren driver ended up just 0.046 behind Verstappen. Sergio Perez was third while Mercedes fell back to fourth and fifth. The Alpha Tauri’s line up sixth and seventh with George Russell and excellent eighth. Lance Stroll starts nineth and Carlos Sainz tenth. Sebastian Vettel had qualified eighth but was given a three place grid penalty for impeding Alonso.

2021 Austrian GP Raceday: Tyres Will Decide Strategies

Race strategy will be decided by tyres and the two Red Bulls, Norris, both Mercedes and George Russell all start on the medium compound while the two Alpha Tauri’s and Aston Martin’s on the soft. Carlos Sainz has free choice and might start on the hard (last weeks medium on which Ferrari was very fast) and be in the best position for a one stop race.

The drivers starting on the soft tyres are in a bad position. The softs are one step softer than last week and it is hard to see drivers starting on that compound being able to execute a successful one stop race. It won’t be easy for the drivers starting on the medium, never mind the soft.

Verstappen In Prime Position

Verstappen is in position A1. Pole position and with the slower McLaren and his teammate between him and his Championship rival in fourth place. In terms of long run pace, there was nothing between Red Bull and Mercedes. Hamilton and Bottas can still aim for a podium finish but beat Verstappen? Not a chance says Hamilton. Verstappen just needs to keep out of trouble, manage his tyres and keep out of DRS range. This should be easier than it was last week and it was a cruise and collect job last Sunday.

The McLaren of Norris was some 0.46 slower than Red Bull and Mercedes on the long runs and it will be very difficult for him to keep ahead of them. Like last week, fifth place looks likely to be where he finishes. His battle will be with the Ferrari’s, and he isn’t going to kill his tyres fighting the impossible fight with the Bulls and Merc’s. He is starting on the medium tyre this week so he will be in a better place to fight and with his car faster than the Mercedes in a straight line, he will be hard to pass, so he may be able to finish higher than fifth. He certainly is a headache Mercedes didn’t need.

Mercedes Losing Ground

Mercedes, having looked like they had found some better pace on Friday, lost ground in qualifying. Beaten fair and square by the two Red Bulls AND Lando Norris. They are playing around with their set up to try and find more pace and it maybe that they have got a bit lost. There are updates for the car coming at Silverstone and they are much needed as they are in danger of becoming only the third fastest car.

The Alpha Tauri’s, starting on the ‘wrong’ tyre, were 0.52 off the pace of Verstappen on Friday, and it is just a matter of how many places they will fall back.

Russell In Uncharted Waters

George Russell, a nice 7.00 winner for app users yesterday, is in a strange place. Starting in eighth place AND on the best tyre. The reality is that his long pace was nearly a second off Verstappen on Friday and nearly half a second slower than Alpha Tauri and Aston Martin. The question is, will his better strategy be enough to overcome that sort of performance handicap? He couldn’t have done a better job yesterday and has put him self in with a real chance of vital points. If he could finish eighth that would move Williams up to eighth place in the constructor’s championship and that is worth millions of dollars in prize money. The pressure is on to finally break his duck with Williams.

He will be able to use the overcut to get past the two Alpha Tauri’s but the two Ferrari’s are considerably faster in terms of race pace and they should dispatch him soon enough. His race is to beat the Alpha Tauris and Aston Martin’s. Russell is a 2.10 shot to finish in the points and that looks about right to me. He has burned through a lot of tyres and has no new sets of medium tyres. His strategy is a medium to hard and hard again if need be. That is not a disaster but limits his options.

Ferrari’s Race Pace Is Good

Ferrari are interesting. Let’s just say that they were not heart broken to end qualifying in eleventh and twelfth (Sainz will start tenth due to Vettel’s penalty). They know their race pace is very good. We saw them cut through the field last week to finish sixth and seventh. They will be targeting another top 6 finish and they were around 0.25 faster than McLaren on long run pace, so our ante post bet on a double top 6 finish is not done for yet.

Two cars out of place on the grid are Daniel Ricciardo in thirteenth and Alonso in fourteenth. Ricciardo just can’t find the pace of Norris in qualifying but his race pace will be much more competitive. A power unit problem cost him points here last week and he should be targeting nineth or tenth place today (1.67 to finish in the top 10). Obviously starting in the midfield carries more risk for the opening lap, and his odds are only fair.

Fernando Alonso was all set to reach Q3 but came across a slow moving Sebastian Vettel in the final corner and to abort his lap. Vettel got a three place penalty but he has seriously damaged Alonso’s chances of a points finish. The Alpine was only sixth fastest on the long runs and Alonso has his work cut out to try a score points today, as odds of 3.50 suggest.

2021 Austrian GP Raceday Selections

The race is Verstappen’s to lose, and he is just 1.40 to win. Who will come second and third is the more interesting question. Norris is in a much better position than he was last week. Starting on the same tyre as Red Bull and Mercedes. He loves this track, knows the best way round it and with his car prodigious straight-line pace he will be hard to pass. Perez remains a little underwhelming in the second Red Bull, but he is a competent race driver and very good at tyre management which may be the key today.

Both Perez and Norris have used a set of the hard tyres in practice, and they have just the one set of new hard tyres. Verstappen and the two Mercedes have two sets of new hard tyres and they just have bit more flexibility in terms of strategy. Whether this is a one or two stopper is very much up in the air. A medium then hard, one stopper might not even be the quickest strategy according to Pirelli. In reality it would be like doing a one stopper on last weeks soft and medium tyre. Last weeks preferred race tyre was the hard and that is not an option this weekend.

Multiple Strategies

There is certainly more than one strategy in play this weekend and making the right choice and executing it correctly is crucial.

Those starting on the soft tyre will have to pit around lap 10-15 and then have two stops to fit hard tyres. I can’t see how anyone on the softs will pull off a one stop strategy, unless they drive really slowly which defeats the purpose. Alpha Tauri and Aston Martin really do have a poor strategy, but if we get a safety car at the right time……

Those drivers starting outside the top ten and with a free call on which tyres to start on have options and that is why Ferrari, Ricciardo and maybe Alonso are still potential points finishers. Alonso started from nineth last week on the soft tyre (this weeks medium) and finished eighth on a one stopper. It will be harder to execute something similar with the softer range this weekend but if he can pull it off, he could have one less stop to make than Aston Martin and Alpha Tauri.

Alonso has, along with Ferrari, Ricciardo and Ocon, only one set of new hard tyres which isn’t ideal but he could still pull off a hard, medium, medium two stopper or even a final stint on the soft. His options are still better than Aston and Alpha.

Safety Car?

We didn’t get a safety car last week and that may change today. That can throw a very big spanner in teams plans, but that is just a random factor that cannot be controlled. Rain which required the use of wet weather tyres would be another random factor that would turn things around.

Norris is best priced at 3.50 for a podium finish. It is possible but he should be giving up too much race pace to hold off two of the cars behind him. He is just 1.36 for a top six finish which he should do but its not a value bet.

Both Ferrari drivers are as low 2.25 (and a best priced 3.00) to finish in the top six but we have already backed a Ferrari double top six finish (now available at 6.50with Pokerstars) and that is enough for me. Or is it? Backing them individually means break even if only one makes the top 6, as was the case last week. If they both make it, happy days.

2021 Austrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to finish top 6 @ 3.00 with William Hill

2021 Austrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to finish top 6 @ 3.00 with William Hill

As for a top 10 finish, Russell is now just 2.10 and while he has a decent chance, the odds are skinny. Ricciardo is just 1.67 for a top 10 finish and he should manage it but again the odds are only fair. Alonso at 3.50 is a more sporting bet. He has his work cut out, but he is a smart driver and on a run of three top tens. The Alpha’s and Aston’s are there to be shot at and we know that he will not leave anything out there.

2021 Austrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Fernando Alonso to finish in the top ten @ 3.50 with William Hill

Ladbrokes have an interesting group bet. Group has five drivers with Tsunoda the 3.75 favourite, Ricciardo 4.00, Stroll 4.25, Russell 4.50 and Vettel 5.00. As you might have gathered by now, I really don’t like the strategy of Aston and Alpha and this group seems more likely to be between Ricciardo and Russell. Ricciardo has the fastest race pace while Russell will be trying to get a slow car home in the points. The McLaren has great straight line pace and with three DRS zones, Ricciardo can lick it and send it.

2021 Austrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Ricciardo to win Group three @ 4.00 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt