This Grand Prix was first run in 2017 and with last years race cancelled, the 2021 Azerbaijan GP will be just the fourth running. In that brief time, it has established itself as the must watch race of the season. After the processional Monaco GP, this will be a much needed shot in the arm for race fans. It will actually be the fourth time the circuit has hosted an F1 race as it was the venue for the 2016 European GP.

While Monaco is not fit for actual racing, the Baku street circuit is perfect. It looks a bit Mickey Mouse on paper with its many 90 degree corners and ridiculously long straight which isn’t straight, but it comes together to produce drama and unpredictability.

2021 Azerbaijan GP: Drama On The Cards

The race in 2017 saw three safety cars, a red flag and nine different constructors in the top 10. Despite Mercedes dominating modern F1, they have had just the one 1-2 finish here. They have won three from four and had three pole positions, but Bottas has arguably the better record than Hamilton. The Finn won in 2019 and was heading for the win in 2018 before suffering a puncture on the penultimate lap and forcing him to stop.

The first sector of the circuit is fast with four right angle corners before the second sector which is much more technical with eleven corners and a very tight run through the old city before the third sector which is basically a flat out straight with a few kinks. This long straight, with a DRS zone is a great place to pass. A car being followed is usually a sitting duck.

It is a proper street circuit and lined with barriers. Mistakes are punished and the opening couple of corners inevitably see some contact on the opening lap. Braking is key to a good lap, leaving late but not so late that you hit the wall. Good traction out of the corners is important and the very long straight rewards power.

Driver Records

The four races here have produced four different winners, Rosberg, Ricciardo, Hamilton and Bottas. That means Hamilton has only finished ahead of his teammate once, and that was due to Bottas’ late puncture in 2018. Both Mercedes drivers have won once, both had one pole position, but Bottas was also on the podium in 2017.

Max Verstappen has yet to finish on the podium while his teammate, Sergio Perez has been third twice for Force India. Sebastian Vettel likes his street circuits and while he has never won here, he has two podiums, two fourth places and a pole position. His teammate at Aston Martin, Lance Stroll, scored a podium for Williams in 2017 and has always finished in the top 10.

Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz has been top 8 for the last three races here, Charles Leclerc sixth and fifth. Daniel Ricciardo won for Red Bull in 2017 but has failed to finish the last two races here. The other podium scoring driver is Kimi Raikkonen who has second for Ferrari in 2018 and he scored a point for Alfa Romeo in 2019.

There isn’t any one driver who has a dominant track record and that is because this is race that happens to drivers, they can’t control it. Luck plays a huge part. Crashes are regular occurrence which means safety cars, debris on track and resulting punctures are common. Very few drivers will have a boring race and so long as you are still running, you are in with a chance of a good result. It poses the same sort of risk as Monaco, but also allows for overtaking and is much faster. Baku is, in my opinion, the best racing track on the calendar.

2021 Azerbaijan GP: Current Form

The season is simmering away nicely. We have a non-Mercedes driver, Max Verstappen, on top of the Driver’s Championship and Red Bull are one point ahead of Mercedes in the Constructors Championship. We even have a McLaren driver in third place and just two points separates McLaren and Ferrari in the constructs table. Two points covers the lower midfield pack of Aston Martin, Alpha Tauri and Alpine, while Alfa Romeo’s single point scored in Monaco lifts them above the pointless Williams and Haas.

It is turning into a classic battle between two drivers from two different teams. Verstappen has been very consistent finishing first or second in all five races so far, Hamilton has won three and had one second place, but his worst qualifying performance since Germany in 2018, condemned him to a lowly seventh place in Monaco. They have been the two best qualifiers and this battle will go on and on.

Valtteri Bottas is once more out of the picture after two DNF’s, neither of which where any fault of his. He has three third place finishes and is very much in the running this weekend on a track on which he has performed well on.

Red Bull The Team To Beat?

As usual, Mercedes’ Toto Wolff is saying that Red Bull will be the team to beat this weekend and that their ‘Flexi rear wing’ will be a big asset on the long straight. That may be true, be we saw in Spain that the Red Bull was not as quick on the straight at Barcelona, flexing rear wing or not. The Red Bull is a bit more draggy than the Mercedes and that might be the deciding factor.

It is not a given that Red Bull will run with the ‘Flexi’ wing. Their higher downforce set up has a rear wing that does not flexi as much, but a high downforce set up would be slow on the long straight. It would be better in the second sector and have the benefit of looking after the tyres better, but it will be a case of trial and error in free practice, to find the best set up. Because of the contrast between the second and third sector here, two very different set ups can produce very similar lap times but being slow on the straight here is not going to work well in the race.

Norris Could Pick Up The Pieces

McLaren’s Lando Norris has picked up two podium finishes so far and while they are not right up with the big two, they are ready to pick up podiums if Red Bull or Mercedes slip up. The McLaren is very quick on straights and the 1.4 mile long straight here will play to that strength. This is the kind of race that can be chaotic and will offer them a good chance of more big points and even a win is not out of the question. His teammate, Daniel Ricciardo, is struggling. He was a big disappointment in Monaco, and he needs to press the reset button and deliver a better performance this weekend. It has been reported that McLaren will have a new chassis for Ricciardo, just in case his problems are car related.

Ferrari looked like crashing the Mercedes/Red Bull party in Monaco with Leclerc qualifying on pole position, but damage sustained in his qualifying accident meant he could not start the race. Carlos Sainz did finish second and with both drivers having decent records here they will be hoping to have another strong weekend, but they are not expecting to have a repeat of Monaco. Their car is good in slow corners, and while this is a much faster track, there are slow corners, so I expect Ferrari to be scoring good points and taking advantage if Ricciardo struggles.

2021 Azerbaijan GP: Anything Could Happen

Ferrari are publicly saying that they expect to fall behind McLaren this weekend, but they have been no worse than sixth in any of the first four races so while I do not expect them to be any worse than that in this race, anything could happen. Like Red Bull, Ferrari (and Alfa Romeo and Alpine) have a flexing rear wing and while the more stringent tests will not be implemented until the French GP, it is possible that we will see protests made to the race stewards about those three teams.

The weather forecast for the weekend is pretty straight forward. Sunny and warm around 24 degrees but breezy. The wind will be strong on Sunday, gusting up to 48 km/h. That can create problems on this track as those gusts funnel their way between breaks in the buildings around the circuit. The cars can be sheltered one minute and hit by a strong gust the next.

Ante Post Selections

Who should be favourite for this weekend? It is not as straight forward as Monaco which always looked like favouring Red Bull. Power is more important here, or rather straight-line performance. That would nudge things towards Mercedes. However, Honda have closed the once significant gap between the two power units.

However, down the long straight in Barcelona it was Mercedes who had the edge over Red Bull and it was also evident in Bahrain. It looks like, Flexi wing or not, Mercedes will be faster down the long straight.

It is such a long, fast straight that even without DRS, the car behind gets a fantastic tow. Even a slower Red Bull should be able to overtake a Mercedes so long as it was fairly close behind. Red Bull’s real advantage with the flexi wing is that it allows them to run with a bigger rear wing. That gives them the downforce needed in sector two, but not too much drag down the straight. Like having your cake and eating it.

Flexi Wing Worries

If Red Bull do run their flexi wing, it may well be protested and then who knows? Red Bull might lose any points scored so there is a degree of risk for them. For race betting purposes, the win would stand.

One fly in Mercedes ointment is that Pirelli will be bringing their three softest compounds, the same as we had in Monaco. Mercedes did not go as well on them as Red Bull. Mercedes tends to be better on the harder compounds.

The bookmakers can’t separate Verstappen and Hamilton. Both can be backed at 2.38, but what about their teammates?

This has not been a great track for Hamilton against his teammates. Bottas is 2-1 with Hamilton here and it should have been 3-0. Rosberg also beat Hamilton here. Bottas does have some tracks where he can be quicker than Hamilton, like Sochi, another street circuit, and this looks like one of them. He was better round the streets of Monaco last time out until a stuck wheel nut ended his race. Bottas, unlucky as he is, cannot be dismissed here. The track surface is low grip and Bottas is very comfortable on such surfaces.

2021 Azerbaijan GP Tip: 2 points Bottas to beat Hamilton @ 3.60 with Unibet

Sergio Perez has scored two podiums here for Force India and he is desperate to get back on a favourite track in a truly competitive car. He has had a difficult start to the season, especially in qualifying where his average grid position is 6.8. Grid position is not as important at this track as is usually the case on a street circuit as there are passing opportunities, but he still needs to up his game on Saturday. Like Bottas, the number two driver at Red Bull cannot be dismissed on this circuit.

After a very strong showing for Ferrari in Monaco, is there any chance of a dark horse causing a surprise this weekend? Purely on performance, probably not, but on track that can play host to chaotic races, yes. You still need a good car to pull off a surprise, that, and a healthy slice of luck. Ferrari and McLaren both have good cars this year, but the McLaren is Mercedes powered and slippy, making them very fast down the straights. Lando Norris has scored two podiums from the first five races, despite an average grid position of seventh. He looks well poised to pick up a win at some point, when the cards don’t fall right for the big two. This is a track which could be the one.

The bookies don’t bet e/w the first three anymore, so this is just a speculative punt and not one to go mad on, but the McLaren has the straight-line performance to shine in sector one and three, whilst Norris has proven that he can make the car perform well in slow speed corners with his Monaco podium.

2021 Azerbaijan GP Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to win the Azerbaijan GP @ 51.00 with Pokerstars

Sebastian Vettel finally got some points on the board in Monaco with a fine fifth place. He does tend to go well on street circuits, and he has never been worse than fourth here in his Ferrari days. Being good in Monaco is no guarantee of being fast here, but Aston Martin have worked to improve the car and are making progress. Vettel is said to be more comfortable in the car now and with a good track record and Mercedes power he is well placed to back up Monaco with another points finish.

2021 Azerbaijan GP Tip: 2 points Sebastian Vettel to finish in the points @ 2.10 with Skybet

It may be asking too much for Aston Martin to get another double points finish, but Stroll has finished in the top 9 in all three of his races here and he has three points finishes from five this season. Both drivers know how to get the job done here and maybe they are on a roll.

2021 Azerbaijan GP Tip: 1 point Aston Martin to have a double points finish @ 4.00 with Skybet

The retirement rate in Baku has always been high, twice we have seen six DNF’S and twice four. Under 16.5 finishers can be backed at 2.10 which was tempting. However, the DNF rate this year so far has been very low. Only the rain affected Imola race has seen more than two DNF’s and the last three just one. Mechanically the cars these days are bulletproof and while crashes and collisions will take a toll here, the drivers are being very well behaved. Even Mazespin has finished the last four races.

-JamesPunt