2021 Belgian GP Preview and Tips

After the summer break, Formula 1 returns with a triple header, starting with the 2021 Belgian GP this weekend.

The venue is the mighty Spa-Francorchamps circuit in the Ardennes mountains. At just over 7 km it is the longest track on the calendar and is a classic old school F1 track, featuring very fast corners, long straights, elevation changes along with some heavy braking areas and technical sectors. It is regarded as a real drivers track which rewards ability and bravery. It is also a good test of an F1 car, rewarding power and aerodynamic efficiency in a low downforce set up.

The track is unique but Austria and Silverstone place similar demands on the car and they are reasonable form guides form Spa. Verstappen won both races in Austria from pole while Hamilton won at Silverstone but only after their collision put Verstappen out of the race while leading. The two races at Austria and Silverstone’s race saw good results for Ferrari and McLaren.

2021 Belgian GP: Rain On The Cards?

Being set in a mountain region, Spa is frequently affected by rain. It has its own microclimate and forecasting the weather here is difficult but this year it looks certain that we will have rain at some point in the weekend and perhaps for all three days. Friday’s free practice sessions look set to be affected cloudy, cool conditions with light rain showers all day. It would be no surprise to see the start of FP1 delayed as the morning is set to start with low cloud and fog which may mean the Medi-vac helicopter cannot take off.

The weather is set to improve slightly on Saturday but FP3 could again be hit with light rain with drier conditions for the afternoons qualifying session but still a decent chance of showers. The chance of rain for the race on Sunday falls to 60%. There can be no great confidence in the forecast this far out, but rain is on the menu. The forecast has already moderated in the last couple of days, with a slightly drier Friday but showers are still forecast for all three days.

Pirelli are bringing the same compounds as used in Hungary and with Spa being a much faster track, managing the tyres will be more difficult. However, with rain a possibility we could see more than one stop to switch to and from wet weather tyres and less running on the slicks.

Maiden Win For Ocon

We had rain in Hungary for the previous race and what a difference that made. Esteban Ocon was another first-time winner at the Hungaroring after a chaotic start wiped out many of the fancied runners. It was Mercedes Valtteri Bottas who was largely to blame, braking far too late into turn 1 and taking out both Red Bulls amongst others. Verstappen was able to continue but one side of his car was missing vital aero devices and his race pace was severely limited as a result.

Lance Stroll was another driver who acted like a bowling ball at the first corner, and he ended a few drivers chances prematurely. Bottas received a paltry 5 place grid penalty for this weekend’s race, but the incident highlights a flaw with the regulations. We are now in the ‘cost cap’ era and crashes which cause serious damage to cars have consequences further down the line. Money spent on repairs cannot be spent on car development for example and in the last two races, Red Bull have had lots of crash damage costs to swallow despite being blameless for the crashes.

The big winner from these crashes? Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes. Verstappen, the innocent victim in both races, scored just 5 points in the last two races. It is now Lewis Hamilton who leads the World Championship by 195 points to 187.

Cost Cap Regulation Issues

The current cost cap regulations mean that a driver who is taken out by another car not only has that race ruined, but the team takes a financial hit and if the power unit is damaged, a possible grid penalty in a latter race. In the olden days, that didn’t matter so much as the teams, the bigger ones anyway, had the resources to carry out repairs and carry on with developing the car. Now money spent on repairs means cutting back on something else. The innocent party is getting doubly punished while the guilty driver gets a modest five place grid penalty, if that.

There must be a danger, that in a very closely contested Championship race, teams will be tempted to use their number two driver as a guided missile to take out a rival. If the punishment is so lenient, then it makes sense. The FIA needs to deal with the matter before it gets out of hand.

The outcome of the Championships is being affected by these crashes and the financial penalties incurred and the changes to the calendar is another factor entering the equation.

Japanese GP Cancelled

The 2021 season was supposed to feature 23 races, the longest F1 calendar ever. With the Covid 19 pandemic still in full flow, that was always an ambitious target, and the fact is, we do not know how many races we will have nor where they will be held. During the Summer break the Japanese GP was cancelled. That is Honda’s home race and would have been their final F1 race in Japan. Suzuka has been a Mercedes fortress in the turbo Hybrid era so it is hard to say if missing Japan hurts Hamilton or Verstappen more, but there are concerns around the Mexican and Brazilian GP’s, both races that would favour Red Bull.

This weekend is supposed to be the halfway point of the season, but with Japan gone and Australia gone, there are two races still to be rearranged if the 23 race target is to be met. It looks increasingly likely that the Middle East will feature very prominently at the tail end of the season. We already have Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi as the final two races, and are they set to be joined by a race in Qatar and a return to Bahrain’s out circuit would make sense. Two races over the Circuit of the Americas in Texas are also being mooted should Mexico and/or Brazil be cancelled.

2021 Belgian GP: Recent Form

The points tide had turned in Hamilton’s favour in the penultimate two races before the break, but does that mean he now has the best car and is favourite to retain his title? The jury is still out.

There is no doubt that Mercedes ‘final’ upgrade introduced at Silverstone did improve their car. It ended Max Verstappen vice like grip on pole positions but with the Dutchman being taken out of the race at Silverstone when leading and having his car severely damaged at the start in Hungary, the championship table flatters Hamilton. Verstappen looked set for the win at Silverstone, but it is fair to say, Red Bull struggled in Hungary, and he was unlikely to have won that race. However, second place was still likely. His car was suffering from understeer all weekend and the team just couldn’t dial it out. It is likely to have been a track specific problem and unlikely to be an indicator of any problem going forward.

Red Bull probably still have the better package, but Mercedes have closed the gap and Verstappen and Hamilton go into these three back-to-back races in fairly equal equipment. It now comes down to who can execute their race weekend the best, who can avoid mistakes and crucially, whose teammate will play the best role.

Will Bottas Stay Or Go?

Bottas’ fate at Mercedes was supposed to have been decided upon over the summer break. Does he stay, or does George Russell get his seat? If it is the former, expect a motivated Bottas to be the consummate wing man for Hamilton, as he has been for all his time at Mercedes. If it is the latter, he may not be so happy to play the loyal number two. We have a race in Russia coming up, and Bottas is more than capable of racing and beating Hamilton there. If he is leaving the team, where better to put himself in the shop window for the best seat he can find for 2022?

Bottas has his 5 place grid penalty for this race and Red Bull will be hoping that they can get Perez on the second row and have two cars against Mercedes one. However Sergio Perez’ form remains a concern for Verstappen. Red Bull need Perez at the sharp end of the grid on Sundays and his qualifying has been weak. However, there are some positive signs that he is getting there. In the last five races his averaging qualifying position has been 4.2 which compares well to 6.8 for his first six races. However, Red Bull need him ahead of at least one of the Mercedes and preferably both, but he has only managed that twice.

Best Of The Rest Battle

Outside of the ‘Big Two’, the race to be best of the rest couldn’t be closer. McLaren and Ferrari are tied on 163 points. Ferrari seem to be on the march and have been in fine form ever since the disastrous French GP. McLaren may have the better car, but Ricciardo continues to struggle. Unlike Perez, Ricciardo’s qualifying performance is getting worse. It has never been good this season, but his first seven races saw his qualifying position at 10.0, but the last six, 10.8. He has reached Q3 just once in the last seven races when he had done so in three of the first four races. His race pace is better, but McLaren are having to fight with one arm tied behind their back. The momentum appears to be with Ferrari.

Alpine took advantage of the chaos in Hungary to score 37 points by finishing first and fourth. Ocon’s chassis change seems to have done the trick and while he was a bit lucky in Hungary, he had reached Q3 for the first time in seven races and he took his chance well. Alonso is increasing comfortable with the car and is on a run of six consecutive points finishes.

2021 Belgian GP: Tsunoda Must Improve In Qualifying

Alpha Tauri extended their lead over Aston Martin to 20 points after Vettel was disqualified in Hungary for not having enough fuel in his car at the end of the race. That promoted both Alpha Tauri drivers and they picked up 18 points and are just 9 points behind Alpine in the battle for the third division. Tsunoda needs to improve his qualifying performances if they are to have any realistic chance to finish fifth in the constructor’s championship.

Williams scored 10 points in Hungary thanks to the high attrition rate and that is likely to guarantee them seventh place and winners of the fourth division. It was Nicolas Latifi who score the most points, ironic given the hype around George Russell. Raikkonen was elevated to tenth place after Vettel’s DQ and the three points scored for Alfa Romeo extends their lead over the pointless Haas team.

Driver Records

Spa is regarded as a drivers track, a venue where the driver can make a bigger than normal contribution to the outcome. The list of multiple winners is impressive, Schumacher x6, Senna x5, Hamilton, Raikkonen and Clark x4, Vettel, Damon Hill, Fangio x3.

We have three multiple winners in the weeks race, Hamilton, Vettel and Raikkonen. Obviously, Lewis Hamilton is in with a very good chance to make it five wins as he has a race winning car as well as the ability to do it. Vettel Has shown that he still has what it takes to get podium finishes if circumstances allow it, but the Aston Martin can’t win races on merit just yet. Raikkonen, the King of Spa, has no realistic hope of a win but in a wet race, he could crop up in the points again.

Others with track records of note are Perez, Ocon and Gasly. In the turbo hybrid era, Perez has four top 6 finishes and only once finished outside the top 10. Now that he is in a race winning car, he can be considered for the win.

Ocon Has Track Form

Winner of the last race, Esteban Ocon, will be feeling good about life and he has gone well here in the past with form figures of 16/9/6/5. He made his Formula 1 debut here in 2016 for Manor Racing, finishing sixteenth, and he qualified third in 2018, finishing sixth and he was fifth last year, so it is a track on which he has performed very well on.

Pierre Gasly has been very steady finishing 9/9/8, all for Toro Rosso, now Alpha Tauri. He won his first single seater race here in Formula Renault and won a GP2 race in 2016, so he has good memories of the track and also bad ones, with his friend Anthoine Hubert losing his life here in 2019.

There are also a few drivers who have surprisingly poor records at Spa. Fernando Alonso has never won and last scored points in 2016. Max Verstappen has never been better than third, and the normally super consistent Carlos Sainz has scored just a single point here, had three DNF’s and a DNS. It is safe to say he doesn’t like Spa.

Charles Leclerc did well when he had a top car, qualifying on pole and winning his first F1 race in 2019. Daniel Ricciardo has enjoyed a race win in 2014 and podium finishes in 2016 and 2017. He had a fast finishing fourth place last year for Renault so he can perform well here, but can he produce the goods in qualifying?

2021 Belgian GP Ante Post Selections

We have had four different race winners this season (and ten different drivers getting a podium finish), but Ocon’s win in Hungary was the only non-Red Bull or Mercedes driver to win, and he needed exceptional circumstances to get the win. With rain a strong possibility we may get another surprise winner, but this is a track were the cream rises to the top, wet or dry.

Hamilton and Verstappen are proven wet weather winners, both have race winning cars, but it is Hamilton who has the better track record, by some margin. In the turbo hybrid era, he has scored four pole positions, three wins, two second places, a third and had just one DNF. The Briton has out qualified Verstappen in the last two races and the pendulum has definitely swung his way. Coming to one of his strongest tracks he looks the favourite to get another win on this fantastic circuit.

The bookies can’t separate them, but Hamilton gets the nod in my book. The momentum is with him and while he has been hard done by rather than poor, Verstappen will be feeling more pressure. He can’t afford to have another bad result and even with his great skills, a wet race isn’t what he needs.

2021 Belgian GP Tip: 2 points Lewis Hamilton to win the Belgian GP @ 2.20 with Hills, SpreadEx

Ferrari have bounced back after a dreadful 2020 and there is a chance that we will see a red car near the front this weekend. It is a track where they have gone well on in the turbo hybrid era, winning in 2018 and 2019. Last year’s power unit was too poor for them to be competitive, but this year’s unit is much improved, and about to get better. Ferrari had said that they would introduce some new engine components during the season, despite the power units being homologated at the start of the season. That meant no further upgrades could be introduced during the season.

However, under the guise of a ‘reliability upgrade’ Ferrari will introduce new parts for the power units this weekend. Spa is a power sensitive track and so is their home race in the three week’s time. I expect much wailing and gnashing of teeth if they turn up and are suddenly quicker, but there is a loophole, and they are jumping through it. Ferrari are always cut more slack than any other team and seeing a third team enter the fight for race wins is good for the show.

Leclerc A Dark Horse

Charles Leclerc was masterful here in 2019, winning his first F1 race from pole position. He has qualified on pole twice this season, albeit on street circuits, and been on the second row four times. On a track which should suit them, Leclerc could be something of a dark horse this weekend. The chance of showers could mix things up a little, opening up the possibility of a surprise and Leclerc will be on the premises, ready to take his chance. Ferrari have had a car on the podium for the last two races and Leclerc was a meritorious podium finisher at Silverstone.

Carlos Sainz is more than twice the price of Leclerc and he is a good wet weather performer, but his record here is that of a cursed man and enough to steer me towards Leclerc as Ferrari’s best hope.

2021 Belgian GP Tip: 0.5 point Charles Leclerc to win the Belgian GP @ 51.00 with Hills, SportingIndex, Skybet

2021 Belgian GP Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to finish on the podium @ 5.50 with Skybet

It does look like Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari will be the top teams this weekend, with McLaren/Norris always likely to in there. The top six places will be hard to break into for the rest of the field. Alonso is on a good run of form and looks likely to add to his points tally and he is a best priced 1.54 to do so.

Others in the hunt for more points are track specialists Ocon and Gasly. Ocon looks a little underrated at 1.73 to finish in the top 10. His return to form in Hungary was there to see before his surprise race win and his new chassis seems to have pressed the reset button and he is back to the sort of form that saw him have four consecutive top tens earlier in the season. However, the team are talking down their chances for this weekend, saying that they still are behind in terms of power, and this is a power sensitive circuit.

Gasly A Bit Short

Pierre Gasly is just 3.50 for a top 6 finish and while his qualifying pace justifies that price, his race results do not. He has eight top ten finishes but odds of just 1.44 are a bit short given that we could have tricky conditions. I expect him to shine at some point this weekend, but so do the bookies.

Vettel and Stroll are top 10 contenders, but things are not going smoothly for Aston Martin. In their previous guises as Jordan, Force India and Racing Point, this team have gone well at Spa. They know how to set a car up for the track. Vettel’s results this season have tended to be spectacularly good, crossing the line in second place in Azerbaijan and Hungary, or disappointing, with seven pointless races. He does go well here and a wise old head in mixed conditions is a good combination, so he may have one of his good results. He is 2.00 to finish in the points, but it may be better to back him for a podium finish at 17.00.

Rain Could Suit Stroll

Lance Stroll can’t be called a track specialist, but he has finished in the points here for the last two years. He has been the more consistent points scorer for Aston Martin with seven top 10’s. His qualifying pace has not been as good as his race pace and he may be a bigger price come Sunday, but Stroll is highly regarded in wet conditions and in a team that understand the track very well, Stroll could have one of his special days. Grid position is not as important here as some tracks and Stroll is good at getting the most from his tyres and there are plenty of reasons to think that he might be back in the points this weekend.

Aston Martin previous incarnations have a good record at Spa. Jordan won its first ever here (and finished 1-2) in 1998, they came third and sixth in 1999 and Fisichella qualified on pole for Force India in 2009, finishing second. They have scored points at Spa every year since 2010 and achieved a double points finish in four of the last five.

Another driver who is bigger than evens for a top 10 is Yuki Tsunoda. The Japanese rookie has had an inconsistent season, as can be expected, but he was very successful here in the junior formula. He was second in the sprint race and sixth in the feature race at Formula 3 level in 2019 and won the feature race from pole position in 2020. He has scored points in four of the last six races, so he is getting there on Sundays, but his qualify pace has been worse and he is likely to be a better price post qualifying.  

2021 Belgian GP Tip: 2 points Lance Stroll to finish in the points @ 2.50 With Ladbrokes, Betfred

2021 Belgian GP Tip: 1 point double points finish for Aston Martin @ 4.75 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt