2021 Belgian GP Raceday Update and Tips

It’s time for James Punt’s 2021 Belgian GP Raceday Update:

Rain. That is the word of the day. The weather forecasters have had it right by and large, so far. Friday was drier than expected, at least for the F1  sessions, but yesterday was very wet for qualifying albeit in different intensities during the sessions. It was inters, full wets, inters, full wets and inters for the final roll of the dice.

Today the teams and their weather forecasters face the same problem. Not just trying to workout if it will rain, when it will rain and then how hard will it rain. The intermediate tyre is the one to be on when it rains, but there were intense downpours yesterday which forced teams to run the extreme tyres and the session to be red flagged after a big crash for Lando Norris who was on provisional pole at the time.

2021 Belgian GP RaceDay: High Chance Of Wet Race

The forecast for today is for overcast, humid and cold conditions with a high chance of a wet race. Fog is also in the mix and that brings in the chance of delays if the medivac helicopter cannot take off. This mornings F3 race got underway on time despite the gloomy and wet conditions, so hopefully this afternoons race starts on time.

Different forecasts are saying different things, however. Some say light rain all day, other more showery in nature. My favoured forecaster has the race starting in light rain which will continue for the first 30 minutes or so before easing off. There remains a decent chance of further showers, and some may be heavy.

In summary, anything could happen rain wise and forget any chance of a dry, sunny race.

These are the perfect conditions for a mixed up race. Safety cars are very likely, a red flag incident is more likely than usual, luck will play a bigger role, but so will driver ability.

Yesterdays qualifying saw two of the best wet weather drivers, Verstappen and Hamilton battling for pole and out of the blue (or grey) came George Russell to split them at the death, claiming second place. It must be said that Hamilton looked a bit shell shocked by being beaten by Russell. Verstappen he could take but being beaten by a Williams?!

Talent Matters More In The Rain

Driver talent makes a difference here and more so in the rain. Lando Norris was flying before his accident and was very much in contention for pole up to that point. Was Hamilton having a senior moment? Realising that the kids are not just coming, there are here. Does he know that he young man in the Williams will be his teammate next year?

The parc ferme regulations mean that the teams are stuck with whatever set up was on the car for qualifying. That requires the teams to take a gamble on the weather, 24 hours in advance. If you think the weather will be wet, more downforce on the car was the way to go, if you think it would drier today, a lower downforce set up would pay dividends in the race. Mercedes seem to have gone for the latter, Red Bull the former.

Mercedes took the gamble that it will be drier this afternoon and leant more towards less downforce and hoped that their drivers could cope as best they could in qualifying. Hamilton did just that, Bottas did not. The high rake Red Bull produces more downforce in any case so they have something of a natural advantage in these conditions. Mercedes were faster on the long runs on Friday and Hamilton is happy with his prospects, so long as it is dry. However, if it rains, he admits that it will be tricky. Advantage Verstappen.

Tyres Could Give Verstappen An Edge

Mercedes may also suffer from having used up more of their supply of intermediate tyres yesterday and it looks like Verstappen will have a brand new set extra. If we get a wet, dry, wet dry kind of day than more than one set of inters are likely to be needed and again, advantage to Verstappen.

What of George Russell’s prospects? Starting second (and third) at Spa is not a bad position to be in. The first sector is basically flat out after the first hairpin and the drivers following another car gets a very strong tow for a long time. With more downforce (drag) on the Red Bull, the Williams can get a good tow and attempt a pass at the end of the Kemmel straight. In a wet race his chances of a high finish are reasonable, the slower speeds level the playing field, but he doesn’t want a dry track.

Hamilton will be trying to exploit his straight-line advantage at the start. If he can get a strong tow of the cars in front, he can attempt a pass at the end of the straight. If he fails, Verstappen is likely to open a gap in sector two and be able to control the race from the front. Verstappen will be happier with a wet race as he has the better set up and drying conditions would shift things towards Hamilton.

It will be interesting to see if the two championship rivals have a go at each other on the opening lap and the chance of another coming together has to be considered. The first hairpin always sees some contact and the drag race at the end of Kemmel is another flash point.

Good Qualifying Performance

Daniel Ricciardo had his best qualifying result of the season and starts fourth. Given that his race result is usually a couple places better than qualifying he enters the equation, so long as it stays wet. The McLaren’s dry long run pace was a second off Mercedes and 0.8 off Red Bull, so he needs rain to remain competitive. As he is one of the great late brakers it will be interesting to see if he tries to throw one up the inside at Les Coombes. This is his 200^th GP so maybe he can celebrate that milestone with a podium.

Vettel starts fifth which shows the potential of the Aston Martin here, but sadly for us we have backed his teammate Lance Stroll who will start, yes, in last place. He was not good enough and that was compounded by the team messing up his second run in Q2 and he didn’t reach the flag in time for a final flying lap. Vettel took advantage of the chaos in Hungary to finish second and he may get another opportunity today. He knows that keeping out of trouble and playing the long game gives him a chance of a good result.

Gasly Race Pace Struggles

Pierre Gasly did his usual good job in qualifying but he struggles with race pace and the Alpha Tauri was well off the pace in Friday’s long runs. In the wet his chances are better. Last week’s winner, Esteban Ocon starts eighth, ahead of teammate Alonso once again. The Alpine looked OK on the inters but not so good when the conditions were really wet and things could go either way for him.

Our speculative punt on Charles Leclerc looks to be cooked. The Ferrari has just not been on the pace all weekend. Leclerc was fourth in FP1 but since then both Ferrari’s have been outside the top 10. He needs a lot of luck to make any great progress.

Nicolas Latifi will start in tenth for Williams who are looking to have back-to-back double points finishes. He needs a wet race and some luck, but another points finish is not out of the question. The team seem to have taken a considered gamble to go for a wet race set up and that paid off yesterday.

Rain Not Ideal For Alonso

Alonso starts in thirteenth as he tries to extend his run of points finishes. Their long run pace was reasonable but he may not get the drier conditions it looks like Alpine need. Norris was very impressive yesterday but after his crash and car rebuild, he has taken a 5 place grid penalty and has switched to an older power unit as a precaution. He now starts from thirteenth and may be feeling a bit battered a bruised.

The outcome depends on the weather in all likelihood. Verstappen, if he keeps the lead on the first lap should have the set up to win a wet race. Hamilton needs conditions to improve and it is starting to look like he might get them. This morning’s support races have all been wet but the cloud looks to be lifting a little and the very latest minute cast says the race will start on a wet track with light rain, which is due to stop within the first few laps and then remaining dry. That would mean a short stint on inters before the dash for slicks and then a more ‘normal’ race.

However, this is Spa and if its cloudy, it can rain and the weather remains uncomfortably uncertain.

2021 Belgian GP Raceday: Weather Pointers

We have already taken an ante position on Hamilton to win and he still might if the latest forecast is right. If you think it will be wet, Verstappen (1.81) is likely to prevail, if you trust it turns dry, Hamilton (3.25) is very much in the frame. If the two were once again to clash and both retired, you have the chance of a surprise winner. Bottas is back in thirteenth place, Perez in seventh, so there is no guarantee that one of the big two teams would win.

Ricciardo or Vettel would make the most sense. Both are past winners here, very experienced and their long run pace was very similar on Friday.

If the rain is a repeat of yesterdays on-off, on-off, rain with the odd downpour, then it becomes more like a lottery.

2021 Belgian GP RaceDay Selections

The temptation is just not to have a bet and just enjoy the race. With conditions so unclear it is hard to have any great confidence.

There is a little value in Vettel’s odds for a podium finish. He has a good track record here, the team have good track record here, their race pace on Friday was third only to the big two and he is capable of taking advantage of changeable conditions and chaotic races.

2021 Belgian GP RaceDay Tip: 1 point Sebastian Vettel to finish on the podium @ 8.00 generally available

If the rain does abate and we have a generally dry race, there might be some value on Ocon to win Ladbrokes Group 3. George Russell is the 2.40 favourite for the group which also includes Alonso and Sainz. The Ferrari has just looked lost and Alonso starts five places back from Ocon. Russell’s chances appear to require rain as the Williams pace was uncompetitive in the dry whereas Ocon has been in the top 10 in all sessions. He also has a good track record here.

2021 Belgian GP RaceDay Tip: 1 point Ocon to win group 3 @ 4.50 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt