2021 Brazil GP Preview and Tips

We have a new name for the Brazilian GP, The Sao Paulo GP. Apart from the name change, nothing has changed. This is still the 2021 Brazil GP, still held at the excellent Autódromo José Carlos Pace in Interlagos.

The circuit is a pre-war design with modifications down the years, but it is one of the best tracks on the calendar. It is a short lap with three distinct sectors. The first is a fast-flowing downhill sector with just three corners, that leads into sector two, a slow, sinuous sector with eight corners. The third sector is a long uphill blast into the start finish straight.

The first and third sector are quite similar in terms of car set up. They are fast and reward power and a low drag set up, but the middle sector is the key to a good lap time as the drivers spend more time in it. To be fast in the second sector the car needs more downforce. The engineers’ job this weekend is to find the best compromise between the downforce needed for the crucial second sector, and the top end speed needed for the other two.

2021 Brazil GP: Red Bull Strongly Fancied

Red Bull are being tipped for the win this weekend by everyman and his dog. Interlagos is a Red Bull fortress etc, etc. The fact is that in the turbo hybrid era, Red Bull has won once, Ferrari once and Mercedes four times. Hardly a fortress.

However, the reason why Red Bull is the favourite to win this weekend is that they have the best package. As they have for most of the year. Occasionally we have had tracks where Mercedes were favoured but since Silverstone, Mercedes have stopped developing this year’s car while Red Bull have continued.

Mercedes, as was the case at most tracks in the turbo hybrid era, held a big advantage in years gone by in terms of power. The introduction of the high-tech turbo hybrid power units turned F1 from an aerodynamic formula, to an engine formula. Mercedes had the best power units and have dominated ever since. Up to 2021.

Honda Power Unit Top Quality

Ferrari took the fight to Mercedes in terms of power in 2019 but did so in not an entirely legal way. This year, finally, Honda have produced a power unit every bit as good, if not better, than the Mercedes. Coupled with the nearly always good Red Bull chassis, and you have a better package than Mercedes have produced. With big regulation changes coming next year, Mercedes decided to put more of their eggs in the 2022 basket. Red Bull and Honda have gone more heavily on winning this year, Honda’s final year in F1.

This is not Fortress Red Bull; it is just that the Red Bull can win anywhere.

Max Verstappen is now 19 points clear of Lewis Hamilton in second place in the championship. There are still a possible 107 points to pick up, and 29 of them this weekend. The Sao Paulo GP will see the third and final sprint race format to decide Sunday’s grid. We will have just one free practice session on Friday, followed by regular qualifying to set the grid for the sprint race on Saturday. There are three points for the winner of that sprint race, two for second and one for third. That isn’t key to the season, but as the clock runs down, every point is crucial.

Max Verstappen has won both sprint races so far but failed to finish either race that followed. That is just a coincidence of course and the fact that he has won both previous sprint races is another positive for him.

2021 Brazil GP Tips: 2 points Max Verstappen to win the Sau Paulo GP @ 1.67 with Skybet, Ladbrokes

In the Constructors championship, Red Bull trail Mercedes by just one point. Sergio Perez has scored three third places in a row now, finally coming to the party, just as Bottas has faltered. The soon departing Finn has been accused of treachery by some Mercedes fans. Even Hamilton suggested that it was Bottas’ fault that Verstappen was able to take the lead of last weekend’s Mexican GP so easily. The cracks are getting bigger.

The truth is that Red Bull just have the better package and there is little Mercedes can do about that. Hamilton has won just one of the last seven races (Belgium doesn’t count). He hasn’t been on pole position in the last seven and he is just hanging on, hoping to get lucky but running out of time.

Verstappen is the 1.67 favourite and deservedly so. Hamilton is 3.00, Perez now the third favourite at 11.00 and Bottas 21.00.

Rain Often A Factor In Brazil

The Brazilian GP has traditionally been one where rain is often a feature. This weekend’s forecast is for light rain all day on Friday, partly cloudy on Saturday with a chance of light showers in the afternoon. Sunday should be pleasant with lots of sun and 26 degrees.

That means a damp/wet first practice and sprint race is looking likely but conditions improving as the weekend goes on. I don’t think that any rain is going to favour either Verstappen or Hamilton. It might close the gap a little, introduce a greater degree of risk, but with better conditions for race day, Verstappen will not be unduly concerned.

A wet/damp ‘normal’ qualifying might be more beneficial for some drivers outside of the big two. We have had two wet/damp qualifying sessions this season. Belgium, which was very wet, and Russia which was wet/drying. Lando Norris was fastest in Belgium in the heavy rain, but crashed when conditions became dangerous, and the session was suspended until conditions improved.

Lottery

It was a bit of a lottery in Q3, and it was Verstappen who ended up on pole, from Russell, Hamilton and Ricciardo. In Russia, it was Norris who got pole, from Sainz, Russell and Hamilton. Verstappen was taking an engine penalty and wasn’t getting involved.

A wet qualifying session on Friday may well bring the two McLarens into the frame, and Sainz is always one to follow in the wet. The Spaniard is in great form, scoring points in the last eleven races, and seven top 6 finishes. Sainz was third here the last time this race was held in 2019. The Ferrari PU upgrade is helping and Sainz is worth a small interest at the odds.

2021 Brazil GP Tip: 0.5 point e/w Carlos Sainz to be fastest qualifier @ 41.00 with Skybet

George Russell’s two best qualifying sessions have both come in wet conditions. Second in Belgium and third in Russia. He also performed well in qualifying on the Spielberg circuit in Austria. That is also a short track with up and downhill sectors and at a higher altitude. Could Russell ‘do a Hulkenberg’ and score a pole position form Williams on a drying track in the dying moments in Sao Paulo? Very probably not but at the odds, he is worth chucking some loose change at.

2021 Brazil GP Tip: 0.25 point e/w George Russell to be fastest qualifier @ 201.00 with William Hill, Skybet

At McLaren, Ricciardo is starting to find his feet, out qualifying Norris at the last two races and finishing ahead of his teammate in three of the last five. I am not sure if this will be a good track for McLaren. They have underperformed on tracks with long duration corners so the middle sector here might be a problem.

Alpha Tauri were able to close the gap to Alpine after a fine Mexican GP, and they are now tied on 106 points. Gasly was on it all weekend and the improving Tsunoda made Q3 for the third race in a row. The Japanese rookie had to take a grid penalty for an engine change and was punted out at the first corner, but there are signs of genuine progression. Pierre Gasly was an excellent second here in 2019 and he is one of the stars of qualifying in 2021. The tails are up at Alpha Tauri just when Alpine are having a wobble, scoring just three points from the last three races. Alpha Tauri scored 22 in the same period, one more than McLaren.

The Honda power unit has scored points here for the last four visits (finishing 1-2 here in 2019), and it wasn’t a patch on this year’s model. Sao Paulo is another high-altitude circuit and once again, the Honda has performed well in Austria and Mexico in 2021, and the Alpine has not. That is a good omen for Gasly and Tsunoda.

Alpha Tauri have only managed one double points finish this season, but the signs are there that this could be another good venue. With Tsunoda improving maybe it is time for them to score with both drivers.

2021 Brazil GP Tip: 1 point double points finish for Alpha Tauri @ 2.87 with Ladbrokes

Aston Martin have scored just nine points from the last three races. Taking penalties hasn’t helped but it has been an underwhelming season all round. Vettel was reasonable here for Ferrari, but Stroll has yet to score a point in Brazil.

Alfa Romeo have picked up eight points from the last four races, two eighth places for the soon to be retired Kimi Raikkonen. The last time we raced here they finished fourth and fifth, largely on merit. Raikkonen has finished in the top 4 in four of the last five races here and clearly goes well on the track. With Alpine and Aston Martin struggling, Alfa Romeo might just be able to nick another point or two. Giovinazzi has had three consecutive eleventh placed finishes, so the car’s race pace is not bad. With the grid for Sundays race being decided by a sprint race, maybe this will help Alfa Romeo achieve a better starting position than usual.

Giovinazzi has not been confirmed for 2022 and relations with the team appear be strained, so I’ll go with Kimi to rekindle his good past form in Brazil. He won his only world championship on this track in 2007 and would like his last race to be good one.

2021 Brazil GP Tip: 1 point Kimi Raikkonen to finish in the points @ 3.00 with Skybet

-JamesPunt