2021 Champions League Final Preview and Betting Tips

The European football season reaches its climax in Porto on Saturday night. Man City take on Chelsea in the 2021 Champions League Final and it kicks off at 8 pm. Pep Guardiola’s men are the favourites in this all-Premier League affair at odds of 10/11. The stalemate is priced up at around 12/5 and you can back Thomas Tuchel’s Blues at odds of 18/5. Chelsea have been victorious the last two times these teams have met, including in the FA Cup semi-final a few weeks ago. Can they repeat the dose? Or can Pep Guardiola finally lead Man City to the Holy Grail? Find out in our big match preview below.

Man City

So, it all comes down to this for Pep and his Man City project. The Champions League has always been his primary target since he moved to Manchester and anything less than a win would rate as a major disappointment. The bookies reckon it is Man City’s match to lose and on paper, they certainly deserve to be favourites. However, Guardiola’s side lost both their previous meetings with Tuchel’s Chelsea so this match is anything but a foregone conclusion.

The Citizens have already won the Premier League and EFL Cup this season. In the Champions League they topped their group, taking 16 points from a possible 18. They then accounted for Monchengladbach in the last 16, beating them 4-0 on aggregate. In the quarters, Borussia Dortmund were brushed aside and they then eliminated last year’s losing finalists PSG in the semis.

Man City have zero injury worries coming into this game so Pep has a full deck to play with. The team more or less picks itself. Ederson will start in goal with Stones and Dias at centre-back. Kyle Walker will play at right-back and on the opposite flank it will most likely be either Zinchenko or Cancelo. Fernandinho, Gundogan, Foden, Mahrez, Silva and De Bruyne will fill the rest of the positions with the Belgian as the most advanced player centrally. It is a system that has previously worked a treat for Pep. He will be hoping it can deliver the goods for him on the biggest night of all.  

Chelsea

What to make of this Chelsea side? There is no doubt they improved massively when Thomas Tuchel initially took the reins but cracks have started to show in the last few weeks. Before their FA Cup final defeat to Leicester, some pundits were mentioning Tuchel as a potential manager of the year if he could get Top 4 and win two trophies. However, they then lost 1-0 to Arsenal,  they lost the FA Cup final 1-0 vs Leicester and Spurs had to do them a massive favour on the final day due to their 2-1 defeat vs Villa.

The Blues also topped their group and they overcame Atletico (3-0), Porto (2-1) and Real Madrid (3-1) in the knockout stages. In the second leg against Real Madrid they were particularly impressive and it will take a similar sort of performance if they are to prevail on Saturday night. However, Thomas Tuchel will be sweating on the fitness of one of his key men for this huge match, midfield maestro N’Golo Kante.

He limped off after half an hour in Chelsea’s EPL clash with Leicester. Kante hasn’t been seen since and he has reportedly been carrying an Achilles injury. Rudiger will be a pivotal figure for Chelsea alongside Thiago Silva at the back. Jorginho will start alongside Kante (if fit) or Kovacic in the engine room with Pulisic and Mount both likely to feature too. The biggest decision on Tuchel’s plate is whether he goes with the pace and poor finishing of Timo Werner or the craft and guile of Kai Havertz. Werner has started most of Chelsea’s biggest matches this season and I think he’ll probably get the nod again.

Man City vs Chelsea H2H

Chelsea won’t exactly be in a positive frame of mind coming into this decider. They have lost 3 of their last 4, including that Cup Final defeat to Leicester. On the upside, they are 2/2 vs City under Tuchel so they at least know they are capable of beating Pep’s men. The last time these two teams met in a Final in the EFL Cup back in 2019 it finished 0-0 with City winning on penalties. Given Chelsea’s style of play, a similar result would come as no surprise on Saturday.

2021 Champions League Final Betting Tips

Like most finals, I think this is going to be a tight and very tense affair. Both teams will be eager to avoid making the first mistake and Chelsea in particular will be very disciplined defensively. Tuchel will be happy enough to allow City to keep possession and pass the ball sideways 30/40 yards from goal like they usually do. Once The Citizens don’t get in behind his defence, Tuchel will be delighted.

For City, it is about being patient and taking their chances when they come. They have a wealth of attacking talent to call upon and if the starters aren’t doing it, they can bring on the likes of Sterling, Aguero and Jesus. They can be vulnerable to counter attacks though and Stones and Dias have to be wary of the pace possessed by Werner and Pulisic if they do lose the ball.

I am going to recommend a couple of bets for this game. As I said, this is unlikely to be a bonanza of attacking football and no goalscorer appeals at odds of 8/1. My other bet is going to be on Bernardo Silva to be shown a card. He has been yellow carded 8 times already this season (35 starts) and in the EPL he has been booked 5 times even though he has only committed 17 fouls. In his current role, he has more defensive responsibilities and he isn’t afraid to make cynical fouls to halt counter attacks. So, Back Bernardo Silva to be shown a card at odds of 15/4.

2021 Champions League Final Tips: No Goalscorer @ 8/1; Bernardo Silva to be shown a card @ 15/4 both BetVictor

Dave Stevos