2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats That Matter

This is the fourth and final stats based preview for this year’s Cheltenham Festival. We have already looked at the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and Stayer’s Hurdle. This time it is the turn of the 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup. We found 3 of the first 4 home last year, including the winner Al Boum Photo. Will the stats matter this time? Find out below.

2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats: Age

As is always the case with these stats previews, the first thing we will consider is the age profile of recent winners. This is not a race for old boys as since 2009 no horse aged over 9yo has won. In the same period, no horse younger than 7yo has prevailed either. This suggests that the winner of the 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup will be aged between 7yo and 9yo.

Unfortunately, this means we wave goodbye to the 11yo Native River at this stage. He ran a blinder last time out when winning at Sandown but the stats say he is up against it in this race. Another four outsiders come a cropper at this point including Aso, Shattered Love, Magic Of Light and Black Op. That leaves 18 contenders still standing and we will use course form to narrow the field further next.

Cut: Native River; Aso; Shattered Love; Magic Of Light; Black Op.

Cheltenham Form

It is absolutely vital that a horse has had previous experience of running at Cheltenham if they are to be considered for the Gold Cup. Every single one of the last dozen winners had run at the track before and 6 of them won. So, I am going to discount any horse who has yet to place at Cheltenham over hurdles, fences or in a bumper.

Irish Gold Cup winner Kemboy falls victim to this stat. He has run at the last four festivals yielding form figures of 54U7. Outsider Real Steel is another one who misses out as he has failed to hit the frame in three runs at Cheltenham. Burrows Saint also gets the chop at this stage and so does Battleoverdoyen. The highest profile casualty is 10/1 shot Royal Pagaille as he has never run at Cheltenham before.

Cut: Kemboy; Real Steel; Burrows Saint; Battleoverdoyen; Royal Pagaille.

Grade 1 Form

It is unsurprising that every Gold Cup winner since 2009 had at least one Grade 1 win in the bag. This means we wave goodbye to Vinndication and Saint Calvados. The Willie Mullins trained Allaho is another one to fall at this hurdle as he has never won a Grade 1 race of any sort. Imperial Aura wears the same colours as previous winner Imperial Commander but he is another one to miss out.

Melon, who pushed Samcro all the way at the Festival in 2020, has yet to taste success at the highest level so he is also eliminated. So, that leaves us with a total of eight horses still standing and I will now use recent form to come up with the final list of 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup contenders.

Cut: Vinndication; Saint Calvados; Allaho; Imperial Aura; Melon.  

Recent Form

It is very tough for a horse who has been running poorly to bounce back to form in a race like this. The stats back this up as 10 of the last 12 winners won their prep run for the race. However, for this piece I have decided to discount horses that failed to place in their last run before the Gold Cup. Samcro, pulled up last time out, is the first to go. Santini, a close 3rd in this last season, was beat 17L last time out when 3rd of 5 behind Native River so he gets the chop too.

Lostintranslation has also lost his form after running so well in this last season. He was only 5th, beat 26L, on his last run at Newbury. Last year’s RSA Chase 2nd Minella Indo disappointed last time out when well beaten at Leopardstown and he fell the time before that. So, he is another well fancied horse that the stats suggest won’t be winning. That leaves us with four, find out who I think is the most likely winner below.

Cut: Samcro; Santini; Lostintranslation; Minella Indo.

2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup: The Verdict

Shocks are relatively rare in the Cheltenham Gold Cup so it is no surprise that the four horses that tick all the statistical boxes are near the top of the market. The winner of the last two renewals, Al Boum Photo, makes the grade and he looks to have every chance of completing the hat-trick. He has had just five runs since January 2019 and two of those were his Gold Cup wins. Willie Mullins has followed the exact same blueprint with his stable star this year and he is the one to beat.

I was amazed at how well Champ ran over 2 miles last time out. I firmly believe that a turn of foot is needed to win the Gold Cup when the ground is decent and he most certainly showed he had plenty of toe last time out. The fact he has run just once this season is another big positive and he could be the one that gives the reigning champion most to think about.

De Bromhead’s Charge Interesting

A Plus Tard is another one that has serious claims. Henry De Bromhead’s charge ran a cracker behind Min at last year’s festival. He stayed on strongly to land the Savills Chase at Leopardstown in December for Darragh O’Keefe and he has had plenty of time to recover from that sterling effort. On that evidence another 2 furlongs should be right up his street and the 7yo could play a big part at the business end.

King George winner Frodon is the only other horse to make it this far. He won a handicap here over 25f before landing that Grade 1 at Kempton but I still have doubts about the suitability of this sort of test for him. He will play a big part in setting the early fractions of the race but I suspect he could be vulnerable to stronger stayers.

I think that Al Boum Photo is the most likely winner of this year’s Gold Cup. He clearly relishes this test and crucially, he won’t mind what the weather does. However, I also reckon that Champ could give him something to think about if he is within touching distance as they jump the last and he is the biggest danger. A Plus Tard may just lack the turn of foot of those two, but he can stay on for a place.

2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats Prediction

1. Al Boum Photo
2. Champ
3. A Plus Tard