2021 Dutch GP Preview and Betting Tips

Before we look at the 2021 Dutch GP, firstly, a few words on last week’s farce.

We got caned despite there not being an actual race. Losing on a technicality is a new way to lose but that is the rules. The FIA’s official classifications are what all bets are settled on and the FIA declared a result despite no racing taking place. Declaring a result means they have fulfilled their contractual obligations to the race promoter and that means the promoter must pay the hosting fees to Formula1 and leaves the paying spectators out of pocket despite not getting to see the race they paid for.

It was too wet to race safely and that happens. That there is no provision for covering the eventuality that a race is rained off, other than driving for a couple of laps behind the safety car, is poor. That the fans are ripped off is poor. The fact it has never happened before is amazing, but it must never be allowed to happen again.

New Track Layout

With egg all over its face, the F1 circus now makes the short hop over the boarder to the Netherlands and the Dutch GP at Zandvoort. The circuit was last used in 1985 and the new layout is nothing like the old track.

The circuit is a tight, twisty layout and its signature feature is two banked corners. Tarzan corner is from the original layout, but the banking angle has been increased to 18 degrees to help with overtaking. This was planned to be a DRS zone, along with the following straight, but the FIA have decided to play it safe and the DRZ will only be on the straight and again on the shorter straight later in the lap.

Pirelli are bringing their hardest range of tyres. They expect the track is going to place ‘’heavy demands on the tyres as can be seen from the computer simulations that we have already carried out.” Hopefully these demands are not beyond the limitations of the tyres as the very last thing F1 needs right now is another farce.

Overtaking Tough

Overtaking, or the lack of it, looks set to be a feature here and losing one of the planned zones is not going to help. Many of the younger drivers have raced here in junior formulas (albeit without the new banking) and the clear opinion is that the race will likely be won on Saturday (just like Belgium then!). Overtaking will be very hard on such a narrow, twisty layout. Pierre Gasly is saying it will suit Alpha Tauri as their car is so much better in qualifying than in the race.

Those that have driven here like the track. It was designed by the same guy that designed Suzuka and you can see some similarities. It is a short lap with 14 corners and just one substantial straight. It’s a busy lap with some fast corners and a bit like a faster Hungaroring. The track also looks a bit like the Portimão circuit in Portugal, very undulating with blind crests and even the tarmac looks similar. It is crammed into quite a small pocket of land and as a result the runoff areas are small, and mistakes are likely to be punished. It’ll be very important to get a good grid position on Saturday as track position looks defendable.

No Course Form

There is no past form to go on and any driver records relate to junior formula only. Verstappen won a F3 race here in 2014. Norris has had three F3 races here, winning two, getting two pole positions and finishing on the podium in all three. Bottas had a couple of F3 second places. Sainz had three races with a best placed fifth, ditto Charles Leclerc.

Lance Stroll has one F3 win, a fourth, a fifth and three DNF’s. George Russell was never better than fifth from six starts, Latifi a best placed eighth from three. Giovinazzi did well in 2015 in F3, getting two pole positions a win and two podiums. Mick Schumacher had a couple of F4 podiums and one third place from six F3 races. His teammate Mazepin was never better than tenth in his six F3 races here.

It is hard to say how relevant those records are but clearly Norris likes the track, as does Giovinazzi.

Dry Weather Forecast

The weather forecast looks free of rain for the weekend, thank goodness. The forecasters are not unanimous however, but they are disagreeing about the amount of cloud cover rather than rain. Overall it looks set to be a dry weekend with Sunny or partly sunny conditions at temperatures around 18 to 20 degrees. That might be on the cool side for Mercedes in qualifying and that could be very important. Especially if we have more cloud cover and a cooler track temperature.

With no past F1 form to go on here, we are left with current form and speculations as to who the track might suit. With qualifying sure to be very important we can safely assume that the two Mercedes and Verstappen will once again be vying for pole. Perez will be hoping for a top 4 place, but he has only achieved that four times this year. Charles Leclerc has done better than that with six top 4’s in qualifying but his qualifying performances have been going backwards in the second half of the season.

2021 Dutch GP: Big Boys Could Dominate

If, and it is only speculation based on the configuration of the tracks, Portugal and Hungary are reasonable form guides, it does suggest a front two rows of Mercedes and Red Bulls. Mercedes had pole in both Portugal and Hungary although across the whole season, Verstappen has been the best qualifier. Perez qualified fourth in Portugal and Hungary. Norris and Gasly are strong candidates for the third row, maybe better for Norris based on his single seater form here but qualifying has not been the strongest part of his game this season. It is the other way round for Gasly.

The Hungarian GP was turned on its head with the first corner carnage so taking the race form from there is unwise. The Portuguese GP saw Bottas on pole, Hamilton second, Verstappen third and Perez fourth. The same four finished in the top four but it was Hamilton who took the win from Verstappen, Bottas and Perez. Something similar would be no surprise.

Verstappen Is Favourite

The bookmakers make home boy Max Verstappen the 2.10 favourite. Hamilton is the 2.30 second favourite with Bottas and Perez at 17.00. It is hard to argue with those odds. This looks like a race where it is best to hold fire until qualifying at the earliest. We will know more about the track and who is performing well on it after Friday’s free practice.

However, there are two bets which look worth striking ante post, albeit with more risk than usual.

Pierre Gasly has been one of the stars in qualifying, averaging 6.90 and eight times on the third row or better. On this track, he may be better able to defend it rather than slipping back. He managed to do so in Monaco and Hungary, both tracks were overtaking is very difficult. This year’s Hungarian race form doesn’t hold up but this looks like a track that will favour the characteristics of his car.

2021 Dutch GP Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to finish in the top 6 @ 3.75 with William Hill

The big winner at the Hungarian GP was of course Esteban Ocon. His job was made easier by Bottas taking out many of the leading contenders at the start, but Ocon’s form had been helped by Alpine changing his chassis. He has now returned to the kind of form he was showing at the start of the season. He has outperformed Alonso in the last two race weekends, and he is feeling very confident within himself. Ocon is generally a 1.73 shot but Ladbrokes are going 2.10 which looks too big to me.

2021 Dutch GP Tip: 2 points Esteban Ocon to finish in the points @ 2.10 with Ladbrokes

Looking at tomorrow’s first free practice session, it must be worth considering one of two drivers. Verstappen or Bottas. Of the twelve FP1 sessions so far this season Verstappen has been fastest six times, Bottas five (and Perez once). This being Max’s home race and a riot of orange, the temptation for Red Bull must be to put him out on a low fuel, high power unit mode run, just to make sure he sets the best time.

It may be just a coincidence that he was fastest in both Austria races (Red Bull’s home track) and Belgium (Verstappen’s other home race, being half Belgian). Verstappen has also fastest in five of the last seven first practice sessions. He is also the only driver to have driven an F1 car around the track, albeit a two year old one. There are reasons to make Max an odds on chance for FP1, so odds against looks reasonable value. That said, the 5.50 available for Bottas looks better, but this is an important weekend for Verstappen to make his loyal fans happy.

2021 Dutch GP Tip: 2 points Max Verstappen to be fastest in FP1 @ 2.10 with Betfair

-JamesPunt