2021 Dutch GP Raceday Update

After an exciting qualifying session for the Dutch GP on Saturday, it’s time for James Punt’s 2021 Dutch GP Raceday update:

Today’s race could be a procession, but it is still a fascinating puzzle and there are some important unknowns, particularly the tyres.

With so many red flags and interrupted sessions, there hasn’t been a lot of data generated on tyre wear in the race conditions. We have 72 laps on a circuit which is putting a lot of loading into the tyres and the left-hand side front and rears are going to take a pounding.

The pit lane here is the smallest on the calendar and the maximum speed reduced as safety measure. This makes making a pit stop longer and the desire will be to make just the one stop for tyres, but will the tyres be good enough to last with just one stop? There are doubts, but it could be that the tyre misers like Perez and the Aston Martins could make up plenty of places and those starting outside the top ten and a free choice on tyres, may have a strategic advantage.

Or do they? Making any sort of a strategy plan for today is likely to be a wasted effort. I have lost count of the number of red flags so far this weekend, but it is either six or seven. Any accident or on track retirement seems to result in an instant red flag as the car will be in a dangerous position, such is the confined nature of the circuit.

Tyre Wear May Not Be An Issue

The inevitable red flag, or red flags, or virtual safety cars will allow teams to make a pitstop with little or no penalty, so I don’t expect tyre wear to be the big issue it should.

The red flags/safety cars and the timing there of, will change the nature of the race, introducing a totally unpredictable, random factor into the race. It could lead to the third mad race weekend in a row. Can we just have a boring one please?

Overtaking here is very difficult and it is only for the very brave or the very foolish. The track is too narrow for these very large cars and side by side racing is asking for trouble. I would be surprised if we don’t see collisions and the resulting red flags.

The nature of the track, with its undulations and banked corners, is a very physical challenge for the drivers. Seventy two laps of tensing muscles against the greater than normal G-forces is going to be very tiring for the drivers and tiredness leads to a drop in concentration and that is when mistakes kick in.

It is the kind of race where in the latter stages, drivers are going to be hitting the wall, possibly just as the tyres are falling off the cliff. It really won’t be over till it’s over, the F3 races have shown that.

Hard To Predict

Is this going to be a good betting race? Probably not. The random element of the inevitable virtual safety car or red flags does tend the race towards the chaotic and by their nature, chaotic races are hard to predict. Could we get another Hungary? Maybe not but it is more likely than usual.

Max Verstappen starts from pole with Lewis Hamilton alongside. Hamilton will be on the dirty side of the track which might hinder his start. Mercedes have Bottas starting in third place and once again it is two Mercedes vs. one Red Bull. Perez and/or the team screwed up in Q1 and he didn’t get to the flag in time to do a final flying lap. That put in down in sixteenth place and with the ultra fast, power sensitive Italian GP at Monza next week, the decision was made to give him a brand-new power unit. That means he starts from last place here but will have more horses for Italy.

Mercedes will run Bottas and Hamilton on a split strategy to make life harder for Verstappen. That said, having a strategy today might be irrelevant as it is going to be more about reacting to the stoppages and the timing of those stoppages. A team that can think on its feet and get some luck can prosper.

Hamilton was just 0.032 off Verstappen’s time in Q3 but that flattered Lewis. Verstappen’s last lap was a bit scruffy, and his DRS did not deploy and the reality is that he was nearer two or three tenths faster.

Mercedes Quicker Than Red Bull

In what long running we had on Friday the Mercedes was around 0.10 faster than the Red Bull, not a big difference and having track position here is more important than pace. Hamilton seemed to think that Red Bull had the better race pace, and it is hard to tell with such a disrupted weekend, but there is little between them.

Mercedes plan to run one driver on a two-stop strategy, the other a one stopper. But you can make all the plans you want but on this track, they have to be very fluid.

Verstappen is the best price 1.62 favourite, Hamilton 3.00 and Bottas 17.00. I can’t see how Bottas will be allowed to take the win if Hamilton is still in contention, but if Max and Lewis trip over each other again, and this track invites contact, Bottas is in a good position to take advantage.

Can anyone else be considered? If we do get a mad race with multiple red flags we might, but your guess is as good as mine. Gasly was mighty yesterday but the Alpha Tauri tends to struggle over a race distance. The two Ferrari’s have been good all weekend but Ferrari and thinking on your feet don’t often go together. Wise old heads can do well in mad races and Alonso has a decent car. Vettel is way down the grid but don’t be surprised to see him move up.

Strategic Advantage

The drivers starting just outside the top 10 usually have a decent strategic advantage on a track where tyre wear is likely to be a big issue. Russell starts eleventh but is that Williams going to be a handful in the sea breeze? It was yesterday with both ending up in the wall.

Lance Stroll in the tyre saving Aston Martin could have a good race from twelfth. Their race pace is usually decent. With passing so difficult, the ability to run long and make a one stopper could pay dividends, but that plan may be made redundant. Ideally Aston would like to run as long a first stint as possible for Stroll and then hope that the first safety car came around the time when he was due to stop, but after the rest had already pitted. That would allow him to make a big gain, so at least there is a possible scenario for him. Something similar is likely for Vettel.

Because of the nature of the track and this being the first time racing here, it is particularly risky betting wise, so small stakes only and fingers crossed. Our ante post bets on Ocon and Gasly are looking OK so far but really, anything could happen.

With incidents and accidents likely to trigger safety cars and red flags, this might see a silly bet, and it might well be. However, it has seemed to me that the stewards here have used the virtual safety car or red flags rather than sending out the actual safety car. No safety car might actually pay out.

2021 Dutch GP Raceday: 1 point Lance Stroll to finish in the points @ 2.88 with Hills

1 point Lance Stroll to win Group 3 @ 3.50 with Ladbrokes

2021 Dutch GP Raceday: 1 point Vettel to finish in the points @ 3.25 with Hills

2021 Dutch GP Raceday: 1 point no safety car @ 5.00 with Betfair, Paddy Power

-JamesPunt