2021 European Championship Finals Preview

Another weekend, another darts championship. The 2021 European Championship Finals is culmination of the European Tour season which amounted to just two events. Gerwyn Price won them both and he is the number 1 seed. He plays the 32 seed, Ritchie Edhouse, in the first round. The second seed plays the thirty first seed and so on. Salzburg in Austria is the host city, so it is home soil event for the number 2 seed, Mensur Suljovic.

With just two qualifying events there are a few of the top 16 missing. Gary Anderson doesn’t play on the Euro Tour, but Jonny Clayton didn’t qualify, neither did Daryl Gurney, there is no Dimitri van den Bergh, Dave Chisnall or Stephen Bunting. It is a weak field for a major championship, but it gives some of the lesser lights and up and coming young players a chance to make a name for themselves.

2021 European Championship Finals: Players/Tournament Record/Odds

Gerwyn Price 1/2/2/QF/1/W/QF  4.50

Price was soundly beaten by Joe Clayton in last weekend’s World Grand Prix final but that is his only defeat in his last eleven matches, and he has lost just two of his last nineteen. Tournament favourite and the man to beat.

Mensur Suljovic 2/2/1/1/1/1/RU/QF/1/1/2  41.00

Mensur is making his comeback after a long layoff, and he was runner up to Price at the Gibraltar Darts Trophy. He lost the final 0-8 but he has put in some very good performances in the last few weeks. His consistency is lacking but ability is still there. He has won on home soil before, and he looks like he is enjoying himself again. A dangerous opponent.

Brendan Dolan SF/1/2/1  41.00

A fairly sparse tournament record and Dolan hasn’t reached the finals since 2015. It is a testament to his high and consistent standard of play over the last couple of years that Dolan is back and highly seeded in the major championships. He has won 71% of his matches this year, a career best and he is averaging just under 96. His recent form is six wins from his last ten. He reached the quarter finals of both euro tour events but played unusually poorly in both.

Michael Smith 1/2/1/QF/2/SF/2  34.00

Smith was playing some great darts at the end of August but still losing matches. His 108 average in defeat to Martin Schindler being a case in point. His most recent form is five wins from his last ten and he has lost his last three, two to Gerwyn Price. He has a tough draw and is hard to fancy despite his obvious talent.

Nathan Aspinall 1/2/2  29.00

The Asp may only have won four of his last ten matches, but he is playing well. He just needs a confidence boost to get the results his play deserves. He has had six ton plus averages in his last ten matches but lost three of them, all to top 16 ranked players. It would be no great surprise to see Aspinall having a good tournament.

Jose de Sousa 2  11.00

De Sousa finally put in a decent performance at the World Grand Prix, but it was enough to trouble Jonny Clayton. Up to that match, De Sousa had been playing poorly, his scoring considerably short of his seasonal average. He is trying to play without his glasses, and we shall have to wait and see if his form is returning or whether he is struggling with something such as his vision.

Simon Whitlock 2/SF/W/RU/1/2/1/QF/RU/2  51.00

Definitely The Wizard’s favourite event. The 2012 champion he has reached three finals, a semi-final, and a quarter. He was runner up as recently as 2018 and he will be very keen to have another good run this weekend. He is eighteenth in the OOM and with Daryl Gurney not here, Whitlock has the opportunity to move above the Ulsterman and back into the top 16. His recent form sees six wins from his last ten, but his scoring has been quite low, with four sub 90 averages and nowadays that means you are going to get found out soon enough.

Michael van Gerwen 2/2/1/2/SF/W/W/W/W/2/1/2  6.00

Michael van Gerwen quest for a ranking title in 2021 continues. He lost his first-round match at the World Grand Prix 0-2 to Danny Noppert. It was another good performance which ended in defeat. It is another sign of the times that Danny Noppert felt emboldened to comfort Van Gerwen and complain that he felt he was trying to put him off. Whether MVG was or not, the very fact that Noppert would not hold his tongue to the once dominant figure in the sport, suggests other players see him in a more diminished light these days. His win rate is in danger of dropping below 70% for the first time since 2011 and he is hard to fancy despite his big averages.

James Wade 2/SF/1/QF/1/2/1/2/SF/W/1/RU  26.00

Another past winner and Wade has reached two finals in the last three years. His recent form sees six wins from his last ten matches and while that is not great, Wade is a player that can fire up at any point. He is the master of winning matches despite not scoring that well and while his scoring in recent months has not been great, he has reached two players championship semi-finals and a euro tour quarter final. Given his good tournament record, Wade has to be considered. He does not have a good draw being in the same quarter as MVG and Price.

Joe Cullen 2/1/SF/2/1  26.00

For a player who has done so well on the euro tour, Cullen’s record in the finals is a little disappointing. Cullen had a good start to the season and won two players championship but since mid-summer his form has dropped off and most recently, he has lost six of his last ten.

Luke Humphries  29.00

Making his tournament debut, Humphries is having a decent season but is getting a bit frustrated at not being able to pick up his first senior title. He has reached four finals, including the UK Open but lost them all. It seems only a matter of time before he gets that first win, but frustration is a dangerous emotion for a player. Coolhand Luke carried our money to the semi-final of the Hungarian Darts Trophy but then came up against a rampant Gerwyn Price. He lost his second round match at the World Grand Prix to Ryan Searle, but he played well in a good match. He looks to have a decent draw and another good run is possible.

Damon Heta  51.00

Another player making his debut. The talented Aussie has only won four of his last ten matches and his form isn’t the best. He has had the misfortune to face Gerwyn Price four times since early July and lost the lot and he might just be getting a bit frustrated at not being able to get back into the winner’s enclosure. He might also be getting a bit home sick. The Aussies are finally allowed to go home without a long period of quarantine and Heta hasn’t been home for a long time. The temptation to head back down under must be strong, but we are now in the busiest time of the year for the big tournaments and I am not sure his head is quite in the right place right now.

Krzysztof Ratajski 1/1/1  29.00

A poor tournament record for the Polish Eagle. He is another player who has won just four of his last ten matches, but he played well in the World Grand Prix last week. He lost his quarter final to eventual champion, Jonny Clayton, but he gave him a proper game, going down in the deciding set. It was a definite uptick in form as Ratajski had not been playing well before that. He faces the in-form Danny Noppert in the first round and getting his first match win in the tournament will not be easy.

Rob Cross RU/QF/W/1  34.00

An impressive tournament record but one that shows that Cross is defending £120000 in ranking prizemoney. Anything short of reaching the final and Cross will drop out of the top 16 and life will get tougher. Cross hasn’t won back-to-back matches since 2^nd August and while he has a decent draw, he is under a lot of pressure to have a very good run this week.

Peter Wright QF/1/QF/SF/SF/QF/2/1/W  5.50

A good tournament record for Wright but it took him a long time to actually win it. The defending champion is in relatively poor form, losing his last three in a row and winning just five of his last ten. This is not the time of year to be losing your form. His actual scoring remains good and in reality, he has just been unlucky to have had a run where he has faced players who played brilliantly against him. It isn’t a long time since he won PC23 and then the World Cup, so there is no need to panic, but another early exit would undermine his confidence. Wright remains one of real contenders.

Adam Gawlas  301.00

The young Czech player is making his debut and gets here on the back of his run to the quarter final of the Hungarian Darts Trophy. That was a bit of a surprise as he has struggled in his first year on the pro tour. Gawlas is only ranked 100th on the pro tour which may be more indicative of his true level, rather than 16^th on a two tournament Euro Tour. He is very talented and will be a good player, but he isn’t the finished article yet.

Joe Murnan 251.00

Another of this year’s tournament debutants. He qualified by beating János Végső in Budapest and Martijn Kleermaker in Gibraltar. He lost both his second round matches. Murnan has won six of his last ten matches and has a win rate of just 51.5% in 2021.  He is averaging 92 and he is improving but he very unlikely to be around at the business end of the tournament.

Florian Hempel  251.00

The German debutant is a player of interest. He is 31 years old, so he is not a kid, but his game has clearly improved in the last year or so. This is his first year with a tour card which may explain it. He is only averaging 90 but has a win rate of 64%. However, that is skewed by a large part of his season stats are made up from his spell in the German Super League and his Q school matches, where the standards are lower.

Hempel did not start playing on the pro tour until April with players championship 9. He has played 31 pro tour/Euro tour matches and won 18 (58%). He was runner up in the German Super League, losing 10/11 to Martin Schindler. The German is a good player and has the potential to be better. He has a bit of a swagger about him, enjoys taking on the big names and his A game is good enough to compete with them. Consistency is the problem, and he has to develop a robust B game. He will be no push over, but unlikely to have a long run.

Keane Barry  151.00

The 19 year old Irish prodigy is carrying the weight of expectation on him. He was one of the most successful junior players in the BDO and PDC and he is tipped for great success. However, he is very inexperienced at this level. He has played at Ally Pally twice but lost both of first round matches. He won his tour car in January via the Development Tour and he plays a lot of darts.

Barry competes on the Pro tour and Development tour and has played on the Challenge tour. He has played 49 pro tour/euro tour matches in 2021 and won 26. He has taken a few decent scalps such as Aspinall, White, Suljovic, Van den Bergh and Whitlock. The Irishman faces Rob Cross in the first round and while he will be the outsider, in a first to six format, he is not without a chance in that match but a long run is hard to see.

Danny Noppert 1/1  51.00

Noppert has lost his two previous first round matches in this event but comes here on the back of a run to the semi-final of the World Grand Prix last week. Over the last three months he is averaging just over 97 but he hasn’t been able to convert that into tournament wins and even runs to quarter or semi-finals have been rare for such a prolific scorer. He looked a different player last week and he is worth keeping onside at the moment. He has turned 30 and got a baby on the way. Those two things can focus a sportsman’s mind on winning more money and that means winning more matches. His draw is not the easiest however.

Gabriel Clemens 1  67.00

A first round loser in 2020 on debut, Clemens has had a disappointing season. His upward trajectory has halted. He has won five of his last ten matches and that sums his entire year up. He reached three players championship semi-finals but very little of note in the last four months. Hard to fancy.

Callan Rydz  101.00

Debutant Rydz is a player very much on the up. He won his first pro tour title in February, another semi-final in June and a quarter final in the World Matchplay. He had a decent run at the Gibraltar Darts Trophy, averaging 112 when thumping Peter Wright 6-3 in the second round. Unfortunately, he then flopped at the Grand Prix last weekend. His A game is world class and once he gets a decent B game, he can start picking up more titles. He has won five of his last ten and that inconsistency won’t allow him to get very far, but he is a dangerous opponent for anyone.

Ted Evetts 1  251.00

A first round loser in 2019, Ted Evetts is a multiple title winner on the Development and Challenge Tours. He is still only 24 and has amassed a lot of experience but his career trajectory has fallen back from where he was in 2019. His averages have dropped three points and his win rate dropped from 70% to 55%. Hard to fancy.

Adam Neale-Smith  501.00

The fact that we have a player who doesn’t even have a tour card in the line up shows you how weak the field is this year. Neale Smith won two matches in the Gibraltar Darts Trophy and that was enough for him to qualify. He did beat Jonny Clayton, but he caught the Welsh man on an off day. Neale-Smith won a Challenge Tour event back in August and he is capable of ton plus averages, but his seasonal average is 85. There is no pressure on him, he banks £6000 for qualifying and he can just hope he catches James Wade on an off day.

Boris Krčmar  251.00

A very successful soft tip player, Boris won his tour card in January 2020 and he needs to win a match to move into the top 64 and have some chance to keep his tour card. That is unwelcome pressure. He is averaging 91.4 with a seasonal win rate of just 44%. He has his moments such as beating Gerwyn Price in PC18, when he reached the quarter final, also defeating Danny Noppert in that run. His A game is high nineties, low ton plus, but there are too many sub 90’s to allow him to make many good runs.

William Borland  251.00

Yet another debutant. The young Scotsman played well to beat Mensur Suljovic in the second round of the Hungarian Darts Trophy but then had to withdraw for personal reasons and he didn’t get to play his third-round match. But it was enough for him to land a place in the finals. Big Willy is another of those players hovering outside the top 64 in the OOM and he needs to win at least one match to get back into the top 64. He is not without a chance as he faces Simon Whitlock, a player who he beat when they last met earlier this year.

Lewy Williams  201.00

Another newcomer to the pro tour this year. He has another year of playing rights ahead of him, so he is not sweating over keeping his card. Williams is a player to keep an eye on. He has a very good A game and he has taken down a few big names. He beat Ratajski to reach the third round in Budapest and win a place in the finals.

Williams has won six of his last ten pro tour matches and has wins against Gurney, De Sousa, Aspinall Van den Bergh and his third match on the pro tour saw him beat MVG. He averaged 109.98 in one match, and he is a very dangerous opponent. As with all the newcomers, consistency is lacking and so a long run is unlikely, but he is not a player you would want to face in the first round.

Merv King 1/QF/1/2/1/2/SF/2/2/1/1/1/1  67.00

Certainly not one of the newcomers, King will be playing in his fourteenth European Championship. He reached the semi-final in 2014, his best result, but has lost in the first round for the last four years. King is not in great form, winning just four of his last ten matches and just one in the ranked majors so far in 2021. King is only one win away from a possible place the top 16, which is remarkable at the age of 55.

Ryan Searle   41.00

A tournament debut for the improving Searle who has won seven of his last ten matches. He won his second pro tour title in August and reached the quarter final at last weekends World Grand Prix. He has the game to beat anyone and has become more consistent at high level. More titles look sure to come but he hasn’t gone further than that quarter final in a major. Has to be  considered as a dark horse these days.

Kim Huybrechts QF/SF/1/2/2/1/1/1  101.00

Huybrechts best days are behind him, and he has slipped out of the top 32. He hasn’t won a match in this event since 2015. His scoring has improved a bit in 2021 but his win rate has fallen to 50%. He has won five of his last ten and he can still hit the high notes, but just not for very long. Any sort of a long run is hard to see.

Adam Hunt  301.00

Hunt doesn’t have the scoring power to be competitive at the top level. He is averaging just 89.5 this year with a 49% win rate. His recent form sees five wins from ten and it is a bit rubbish that one 6-0 win over Geert Nentjes is enough to have qualified him for this event.

Ritchie Edhouse  251.00

Edhouse, much like Hunt, got here by winning one match, a 6-4 win over Steve Beaton. He is averaging 92 in 2021 with a win rate of 55%. He is the classic journeyman pro who has his moments but isn’t a contender for titles.

2021 European Championship Finals: The Draw

First Quarter

Gerwyn Price is the number one seed after winning both qualifying events. He is the World Champion and on top of his two euro tour titles, he has picked up two players championships. However, of the televised titles in 2021 the World Championship is the only one. He lost in the semi-final of the Masters, the semi-final of the UK Open, the quarter final of the World Matchplay, withdrew from the World Series Finals and was runner up in last weeks World Grand Prix.

He lost to Merv King in the Masters, James Wade in the UK Open, Dimitri van den Bergh in the Matchplay and Jonny Clayton last weekend. The Iceman also lost to John Henderson in his semi-final match in the World Cup. It is not like he has a particular nemesis, just that he can lose to a top player who is at the top of their game, or John Henderson.

That said his win rate is 80.58% and he is averaging 99 for the year. He is a past champion and has won nine of his last ten matches. He deserves the favourite tag.

Price gets a decent draw and shouldn’t be troubled until the quarter final when James Wade or MVG are his likely opponent. He has only won four of his last ten matches vs. Wade and five of his last ten against MVG. Wade has a poor record against MVG so this quarter may be decided by Price vs. Van Gerwen.

Second Quarter

Michael Smith is the top seed in the quarter but Nathan Aspinall is the 5.00 favourite to win it. That is because Smith has a tough draw. He faces Ryan Searle in the first round, the shorter first to six leg format round. He has a good record vs. Searle and he should come through that but it is still a tough match. He would then face the winner of Noppert vs. Ratajski. Smith also has a good record vs. Noppert, and won five of his last six vs. Ratajski. Smith should, on past form, get to the quarter final but can he win the whole thing? That is much harder to see. He has never won a ranking major and despite his excellent scoring he is too mentally fragile.

Aspinall faces Merv King in the first round, a potential banana skin but a winnable match. He would then face the winner of the Heta vs. Clemens match, two generally disappointing players in 2021. I can see a Aspinall vs. Smith quarter final and that would be something of a toss-up.

Third Quarter 

Finally, we get a quarter which looks a bit more straight forward. Suljovic is the top seed but Peter Wright, the defending champion, looks a strong favourite to reach the semi-final. Suljovic is playing some good stuff but is lacking consistency after a long lay-off. Wrights form on the face of it, five defeats in his last ten matches, is poor, but he can’t keep on facing players bringing their A+ game. The worry for Wright is that in its 13 year history, only two players have defended the title, Taylor and MVG.

What about a dark horse to come through the quarter? Simon Whitlock has a very good tournament record, he has a decent path to the quarter final, and he is highly motivated, sitting just outside the top 16. However, he last won a title in 2017 and his form is only reasonable.

Fourth Quarter

This looks to be the weakest of the four quarters. Brendan Dolan is the top seed. He has only reached one major final and that was in 2001. That said, he is playing his best darts these days and he has picked up a players championship title this year.

 Rob Cross won this in 2019 and is set to crash out of the top 20 if he fails to reach the final this year. His win one, lose one run of form rules him out in my book. Jose De Sousa would have been a stick on to win this quarter just a few weeks ago but he has lost form. His last match did see him play better but he still lost and before that he has had a run of eight matches with an average of just 91.

Luke Humphries must enter calculations. He has the talent to win tournaments, he has been a runner up in a major championship already this year (and three players championship events) and he is in decent form. Losing four finals does beg the question about his bottle but he is only 26 and still a relative newcomer, so just reaching finals could be said to be over performing. He faces Callan Rydz in the first round and Rydz has won their previous three matches, so Humphries could be home before the postcards, or have good run.

2021 European Championship Finals: Ante Post Selections

This is a fiendish puzzle. It would be easy to go for Gerwyn Price again, but he has been rather expensive in recent majors. Michael van Gerwen remains in very good form in terms of scoring and winning matches, but not titles. His confidence is very fragile and that makes the odds of 6.00 look a little short.

Peter Wright makes plenty of appeal thanks to a decent draw and the fact that he is a major champion. Of the top three in the betting, he makes the most sense. MVG and Price are in the same quarter, so we know one definitely won’t win. De Sousa’s form is worrying for a 11.00 shot. Outside that top four we have plenty of possibles but all with considerable question marks against them.

Of the seven past winners of this title, only two were not current or past World Champions, Whitlock and Wade. We have four players who fit that bill, Price, Wright, Van Gerwen and Rob Cross. Again, from that list Wright makes the most appeal and he is the first pick for the 2021 European Championship Finals.

2021 European Championship Finals Tip: 2 points Peter Wright to win the European Championship @ 5.50 with Boylesports, Betfair, Paddy Power, Betvictor, Unibet

Outside of the ‘big guns’, Luke Humphries makes the most appeal for the 2021 European Championship Finals. He has a tricky opening match but if he gets through that, his draw is not the worst.

2021 European Championship Finals Tip: 0.5 point e/w Luke Humphries to win the European Championship @ 29.00 with Unibet

The final 2021 European Championship Finals selection is Nathan Aspinall. Normally backing a player who has lost six of his last ten is a no-no, but I am happy enough with his standard of play and he is due a break.

2021 European Championship Finals Tip: 0.5 point e/w Nathan Aspinall to win the European Championship @ 29.00 with Betfred

-JamesPunt