2021 French GP Raceday Update by James Punt
2021 French GP Raceday Update
2021 French GP Raceday Update by James Punt:
It was a fairly comfortable pole position for Max Verstappen yesterday as Red Bull dethroned the Mercedes form their Paul Ricard stronghold. However, being faster over a flying lap is one thing, doing it over a race distance something else. As we saw in Spain, when Red Bull dropped downforce to gain straight line speed, they overheated the rear tyres which cost them the race.
What appears to be different here is that they have a better set up and have been able to get the straight line speed required, without giving up so much downforce that the car starts to slide in the corners. However, the race is still likely to be close and hard to call.
Verstappen is the 1.91 favourite, Hamilton 2.62 and it is hard to argue with those.
There is also the chance of rain playing a part in proceedings. Early forecasts agreed that any rain today was likely to fall in the morning and that the race would be dry. However, as the weekend has progressed, so have the chances not of some light morning showers, but thunderstorms. There is a yellow weather warning for ‘Thunderstorms, some severe, from Sunday morning to Sunday evening. Storms could bring heavy downpours, large hail, damaging winds and a tornado’.
2021 French GP Raceday Weather Worries
Of course, the important word there is ‘could’. Accuweather have rain falling from 12.30 to 13.30 local time but dry for the start of the race at 15.00. It is raining at the start of the F3 race but the radar does show the rain clearing from the south. However, hedging their bets, they give a 47% chance of rain, 75% humidity and cloudy. The humidity is dropping as the race goes on and with it the chance of rain falls to 35%.
Rain is unlikely to favour Red Bull or Mercedes, but it would introduce a random element which would increase the chances of a surprise result and would certainly increase the chances of a Carlos Sainz podium/win. However, I have the feeling that dry weather will prevail based on the radar.
All the cars in the top 10 on the grid qualified on the medium tyres. There wasn’t a great performance difference between soft and medium but the soft had poor durability and it was a no brainer for the teams to all go for the medium. That is a bit boring strategy wise, and it will all be about who pits first and will the undercut work. There is the question of how quickly Mercedes get their tyres up to temperature after the pit stop and if it takes a lap, then advantage Red Bull.
For those cars starting outside the top 10 they have the option of starting on the hard tyre and running a longer first stint before switching to the medium or even the soft for the final stint. The latter option would be risky, especially given those tyre failures in Baku which are still a cause for concern for many teams.
Hard Tyre Advantage
The hard is said to be a good race tyre here so I can see the likes of Ocon (starting eleventh), running long and hopefully making up a couple of places at the pit stops before running to the end on the medium which may allow him to make up more places on the quicker tyre with lower fuel.
At the back of the grid, we have the luckless Lance Stroll in the Aston Martin. He looked liked landing us a nice bet in Baku two weeks ago before his tyre exploded and took him out of the race. This weekend he got knocked out in Q1 thanks to the late red flag preventing him from setting a representative time.
His car is not as competitive on this track as it was in Baku, but he is good at looking after his tyres and doing very long stints, so it will be interesting to see how many places he can make up. Unlike at Baku, he will not be helped by a high attrition rate, and it will be harder for those cars well outside the top ten to make their way into the points today.
Tough To Make Places
In the previous two races here only two cars outside the top 10 made it into the points in 2019, 13th moved up to 8th and 12th moved up to 7th. Hamilton on pole position won and the first four on the grid finished in the same order. In 2018 Hamilton again won from pole and only once car from outside the top 10 finished in the points, 12th place to 9th.
Looking at this year’s grid, the most likely drivers outside the top 10 to make into the points today are Ocon and Vettel, 11th and 12th respectively. Ocon had shown good pace all weekend. He had been as high as 5th in free practice and his Alpine has top 10 pace (Alonso starts ninth) but it has repeatedly failed to match its one lap pace over a race distance, but Ocon had four consecutive points finishes before his retirement in Baku. The Frenchman is priced at 1.57 to finish in the points and there isn’t much meat on that bone.
Sebastian Vettel finished 5th and 2nd in the last two races but this purposed built track is a different kettle of fish. He had failed to finish better than 13th in the first four races on regular tracks. Is the car improved, or was it the street circuits which suited it? Based on their performance so far, it was the street circuits. Twelfth in qualifying was as high as Vettel as been all weekend. It is a question of whether having the tactical advantage of starting on the harder tyre will be enough for a slow car to make up two places? At best odds of 2.20, again the is little value there.
2021 French GP Raceday Match Bets
Looking at race match bets, Ricciardo to beat Alonso looks interesting. Alonso starts ninth, Ricciardo tenth. As mentioned earlier, the Alpine struggles to match its qualifying pace with its race pace whereas the McLaren is usually the opposite. Ricciardo has an average finishing position nearly two places higher than his qualifying position, Alonso has only made up 0.7 places on average.
Long run pace on Friday suggested that the McLaren was around 0.15 faster than the Alpine, not a big difference but could it be enough for Ricciardo to leap frog the Alpine? He can be backed at 1.91 to beat Alonso with Pokerstars, but again, the value is marginal.
Not Much Value
Value is VERY thin on the ground this weekend. You get races like this on tracks like this.
Ladbrokes have come up with three groups. Group 1 has the two Ferrari’s, Lando Norris and Pierre Gasly. Sainz is the 2.80 favourite, Leclerc 3.50, Norris 3.50 and Gasly 4.33. On purpose built tracks, it is 3 wins for Norris and one for Leclerc. Today Norris starts at the back of the group and gives up three places to Sainz. Ferrari have tended to struggle to match their one lap pace with their race pace while McLaren tend to be quicker. In the first four races Norris has moved up 1.5 places, Leclerc made up no places, Sainz +0.27 and Gasly +3.25.
Long run pace on Friday had McLaren as third fastest, nearly 0.2 up on Ferrari and 0.6 on the Alpha Tauri. The consistent Norris is a small slice of value to get the better of the two Ferrari’s today.
2021 French GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to win Group 1 @ 3.50 with Ladbrokes
Group 2 has Ricciardo, the two Alpines and Vettel. Again, the McLaren driver is the only one to improve on his grid position in the first four races of the season. He has made up 1.75 places and the rest have fallen back slightly. Ricciardo has won three out of four in this group on the normal circuits. Ocon is a real threat at 4.33 however as he does have the strategic advantage of free tyre choice and that should allow him to move up the order. Vettel also but the Alpine was significantly faster on the long runs on Friday.
