2021 Grand National Stats That Matter by Dave Stevos
2021 Grand National Stats That Matter
The stats proved to be pretty accurate at Cheltenham. They found the winner of the Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase, and 2 of the first 4 home in the Gold Cup. The last big jumps race of the season in the UK is the Aintree Grand National and I am going to use stats to try and find the winner. Hopefully my ante-post fancy Alpha Des Obeaux makes it to the final cut. Find out if the 2021 Grand National Stats will matter below…
Age
In these stats pieces age is nearly always the first port of call. It is a great way to instantly narrow the field and of the 40 remaining runners, some interesting horses miss out. Since the year 2000 every winner bar Amberleigh House (12yo) was aged between 8yo and 11yo. So, that means bad news for the two remaining 7yos, Farclas and The Long Mile.
At the other end of the age spectrum another couple of old favourites miss out too. Dual Becher winner Vieux Lion Rouge is a 12yo so he is discounted, along with Takingrisks, Sub Lieutenant, Definitly Red and Blaklion. That still leaves us with 33 horses to choose from and I’ll use another interesting stat to narrow the field further in the next section.
Cut: Farclas; The Long Mile; Vieux Lion Rouge; Takingrisks; Sub Lieutenant; Definitly Red; Blaklion.
2021 Grand National Stats: Last Run
Looking back at the last 12 Grand National winners indicates that it is highly beneficial to have had a relatively recent run. Fitness is imperative for this 34 furlong marathon and 12 of the last 14 winners had a run within 35 days of the big one. Some big names fall by the wayside at this point. The likes of Yala Enki, Potters Corner, Anibale Fly, Acapella Bourgeois are just a few of the fancied horses that don’t survive.
Bristol De Mail is another horse fancied by many to run a big race but he hasn’t had a run for 65 days. Perhaps the highest profile victim at this point is 14/1 shot Kimberlite Candy as he hasn’t seen the track for almost 5 months. Burrows Saint also misses out narrowly as he was last sighted 42 days ago at Fairyhouse.
Cut: Yala Enki; Potters Corner; Minellacelebration; Give Me A Copper; Double Shuffle; Ballyoptic; Anibale Fly; Ami Desbois; Acapella Bourgeois; Bristol De Mai; Talkischeap; Kimberlite Candy; Mister Malarkey; Minella Times; Lord Du Mesnil; Discorama; Burrows Saint.
Course Form
In my opinion, previous course form is huge for any horse with ambitions of winning the Grand National. The stats back this view up. Of the last 11 winners of the race, 10 of them had at least one previous run at Aintree. This is bad news for the legion of Cloth Cap backers as the ante-post favourite has never run at the Liverpool track. Class Conti is another one with no Aintree experience so he is discounted too.
Ted Walsh’s big hope Any Second Now is as short as 10/1 with some firms but he is another high profile casualty at this stage. Jamie Codd gets the leg up on Milan Native but he is another horse that lacks Aintree form, as does another Gigginstown entry, Tout Est Permis.
Cut: Cloth Cap; Class Conti; Any Second Now; Milan Native; Tout Est Permis.
Winning Chasing Experience
The final stat I will use to narrow the field is previous wins over fences. Since Mon Mome won in 2009, 8 of the last 11 Grand National heroes had won at least 4 chases. So, who misses out at this late stage? Well, Balko Des Flos has only won three chases during his career so the Rachehorseclub may have to wait for a while for a Grand National winner.
Top Irish amateur Derek O’Connor gets the leg up on Ok Corral but as a three time chase winner, he is cut too. JP McManus also owns Canelo, trained by Alan King and ridden by Tom Bellamy. However, he too narrowly misses out with just three previous chase wins. That leaves us with a total of eight horses still standing. Next up, it’s time for the final verdict.
Cut: Balko Des Flos; Ok Corral; Canelo.
2021 Grand National Stats: The Verdict
With one firm paying 8 places each way, it is perhaps fitting that eight horses remain in the running. I am delighted that Alpha Des Obeaux is one of them! The others that make the final lineup include Chris’s Dream, Lake View Lad, Magic Of Light, Jett, Shattered Love, Cabaret Queen and Hogan’s Height.
Jett is a horse I am a big fan of and I think he has been handicapped for this race. However, his stamina has to be a worry over this marathon distance. Chris’s Dream has to carry an awful lot of weight and he would probably want softer ground than he is likely to get on Saturday. Shattered Love is another one with stamina worries as she has never won (or run well) in her five runs beyond 3 miles.
Magic Has Huge Chance
The most obvious remaining horse is Magic Of Light for Jessie Harrington and Robbie Power. She has already placed in this race, chasing home Tiger Roll off 151 in 2019. She is back for a repeat bid off just 1lb higher and with stamina assured and ground to suit, she looks the most likely winner at odds of around 20/1.
I have fancied Alpha Des Obeaux for some time for this race and I was thrilled with his run in the X-Country. That will have done his confidence the world of good and he will think he is running loose with 10st 9lbs on his back. He was placed in the 2019 Becher off 159 and if he produces what he is capable of he could run a massive race off 7lb lower.
Queen Would Like Rain
Cabaret Queen has already won a Kerry National but this distance is an unknown. Any rain would help her cause. Hogan’s Height won the Grand Sefton over these fences in 2019 (21f). He has likely been laid out for this race ever since and he carries no weight. He has won over 25f on good ground and he is a real dark horse.
I tipped up Lake View Lad for this race in 2019 when he was pulled up. It was a poor run but I have always thought he was a National type. He is a Grade 2 Aintree chase winner and the ground was probably on the quick side for him in 2019. Rain would be a plus but even if it is on the softer side of good, he could go very well at a price.
