2021 Hungarian GP Preview and Tips

This week we are in Budapest for the 2021 Hungarian GP. The dust may have settled after the controversial crash between Hamilton and Verstappen at Silverstone, but the matter remains open, with Red Bull appealing the penalty handed down to Hamilton. Hamilton was judged to have been mostly to blame for the collision but a ten second penalty was not really enough. The rules around red flagged races need to be revised, especially allowing cars to be repaired during the suspension of the race.

Hamilton had suffered a broken wheel rim, which had the race not been red flagged, would have forced him out of the race or at least to make an additional stop for a change. Red flags were originally introduced to allow cars to be reconfigured in races where rain had made things dangerous, so everyone was allowed to pit their cars and set them up for wet conditions. This no longer the case and we have a number of races where races have been red flagged and the outcome affected by damaged cars being repaired.

Red Flags Helping Hamilton

Twice this season Hamilton has benefited from red flags. He left the track and hit the barriers in the Emilio Romagna GP, damaging his front wing. A few moments later there was a red flag, and he was able to pit have a new one fitted, effectively without penalty. He was ninth when the red flag was shown. However, with a repaired car, he was able to finish second. At Silverstone he ended his rivals’ race, was able to make repairs under the red flag (which he had caused) and go on to win the race. He has been a very lucky boy.

Red bull have appealed as they have ‘new evidence which will put the accident in a different light’. Not many observers expect the FIA to change their minds. But, if you are thinking of backing Hamilton, best to wait until the results of the appeal are known. Verstappen has concerns about his power unit which was damaged in the crash. It was flown to Japan to be repaired and will be in the car on Friday to be tested. Honda are hopeful that it will be fully serviceable and there will be no need for any grid penalty this weekend. Or, indeed, later in the season.

2021 Hungarian GP: The Gloves Are Off

It is fair to say that the gloves are now off. If Hamilton is going to play rough, he will be on the wrong end of a clash sooner or later and still being behind in the Championship, it is a dangerous game to play. For betting proposes, it makes backing Verstappen and Hamilton a little more risky, but any future clashes improves the chances of a win for Bottas, Perez or even a McLaren or Ferrari.

This weekend marks the half point of this marathon season. The Hungarian GP at the kart track like Hungaroring is one of my favourite tracks. Despite overtaking being very difficult, it often produces exciting races with surprising results. The first two corners offer up the only realistic overtaking changes and drivers often make contact trying to squeeze past on a narrow track.

In the turbo hybrid era, the pole position diver has only won three times. Although in recent years, Mercedes have dominated. Lewis Hamilton has won four of the last five, but the team are playing down their chances for this weekend, saying the track will not be well suited to their car. Mind you, they say that every year.

Monaco Formlines Worth Following

The Hungaroring is often referred to as Monaco without the walls. It is a short, busy, high downforce track and the best form guide for it is Monaco. Lewis Hamilton had a terrible weekend in the principality, qualifying and finishing just seventh. Bottas qualified third, so we can’t just dismiss Mercedes this weekend. They will have learned from that weekend and will be better prepared this time. 

The track is regarded as a drivers track. A driver can get into a good rhythm in qualifying (normal qualifying procedures this weekend) and get a good grid position on a track where track position is important. Drivers with good records here are Hamilton, Sainz, Ricciardo, Gasly, Vettel and Alonso. Verstappen has finished second for the last two years, so he is no slouch either. Sergio Perez has a poor record here by his standards with only two points finishes in the turbo hybrid era.

2021 Hungarian GP: Long Straight

The track features one long straight which allows for a DRS pass into the first hairpin. After that, it is basically a succession of corners broken by short straights and that doesn’t allow for overtaking for most of the lap. The car needs to be quick enough to attack/defend on the straight but needs maximum downforce for the rest of the lap. To get the best lap time in qualifying you need to be quick in the corners which make up so much of the lap time but in the race, you need that speed down the straight if you are to make and overtake. Whoever finds the best compromise set up will prosper.  

Toto Wolff says that Max Verstappen is the overwhelming favourite to win (best priced 1.91). While he would say that, he is right. Verstappen’s dominance in Monaco cannot be ignored. That said, we should not forget that Verstappen did not qualify on pole position. That was Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc. Sadly for him, he crashed on his final flying lap, causing the end of the session with many drivers on the final flying laps, including Verstappen. We never got to find out if Verstappen would have jumped Leclerc and take pole. Leclerc’s Ferrari then suffered a mechanical problem before the start of the race. He was forced to withdraw and we never found out if he would have won.

Don’t Discount Ferrari

Ferrari were very competitive in Monaco and that cannot be ignored. Carlos Sainz was second fastest in FP1,2 and 3, Ferrari 1-2 in FP2 and 1-4 in qualifying. Sainz was another victim of Leclerc’s crash ruining his last flying lap. However, he finished the race in second place, by far his best result.  Their car is strong in slow corners and Monaco played to those strengths. Will the Hungaroring? Not according to Carlos Sainz.

Teams like to downplay their chances just in case they underperform, so we should take his predictions with a pinch salt, but he believes that the Hungaroring is now effectively a medium to high-speed track with this generation of F1 cars. He cites the fact that many of the corners at Monaco and Baku (where Leclerc was also on pole position) are second and third gear but in Hungary the corners are mostly fourth and fifth gear corners. The corners here are of a longer duration than Monaco, so we are not comparing like with like. It is a faster track than Monaco, but I would not say it is high speed. Both drivers do not think that they will be mixing it with Red Bull and Mercedes. However, they do concede that they should be best of the rest this weekend.

McLaren Versatility

McLaren are pigeonholed as having a car that is very fast on the straights, but Lando Norris qualified fifth and finished third in Monaco, so they basically have a good car that goes well on all tracks. Riccardo says this is one of his favourite tracks and it will be interesting to see how he goes after a much better showing at Silverstone last time out. Ferrari may be more competitive this weekend, but McLaren are always a factor in the top six everywhere.

Alpha Tauri still lead Aston Martin but by just a single point. Gasly has had two sixth place finishes and a DNF here. He qualified and finished sixth in Monaco and I would expect to see him be more competitive here compared to Silverstone. A points finish is the very minimum we should expect but top 6 may be too ambitious.

Sebastian Vettel goes well here, and he needs to get back into a points scoring finish after a few disappointing weekends. Aston Martin had a good weekend in Monaco, which was a bit of a surprise, but suggests that more points are coming this weekend. Lance Stroll was fourth here last year so it will be interesting to see how he goes as he is on a good run of form.

2021 Hungarian GP: Can Alpine Build On British GP?

Alpine finally got another double points finish at Silverstone. Ocon’s new chassis and rebuilt car seemed to do the trick for him. Alonso has now had five top 10’s in a row and this is the track where he won his first Grand Prix, so plenty of positive mental associations for him. Ocon doesn’t have a great record here with 9th place in 2017 his best finish.

He was very successful in junior categories, scoring three poles and two wins in F3, and two podium finishes in GP3. He has now scored points in five races, four of them in ninth place and another would be no surprise. Alpine have stopped work on this year’s car so it will be interesting to see if their closest rivals will try and jump them with some further upgrades.

Alfa Romeo have not scored a point since Azerbaijan. Four pointless races in a row and they have only scored points at Monaco and Baku. Their qualifying pace is poor and on this track, you need a good grid position. One reason for optimism is that Giovinazzi qualified in tenth place in Monaco and held on to finish tenth. However, they do seem to be going backwards both in qualifying and the races.

Williams Have Qualifying Pace

Williams got Russell into Q3 at Silverstone and that is two in a row for Mr. Saturday. Now they need to finally convert this good qualifying pace into a point. Russell’s last four races have shown finishes of 12/DNF/11/12, so they are getting close, but the race pace just is not as good as qualifying pace. They still need a bit of luck, a couple of retirements ahead of them.

The team are making optimistic noises about this weekend, saying that the track has suited their car quite well in recent seasons. Last year they got both drivers into Q2 for the first time since 2018. It is a slower track than most, so that helps, but they didn’t show any great form at Monaco which is a negative.

2021 Hungarian GP: Weather Watch

The weather in many parts of Europe has been savage recently, floods in Germany, Belgium, France, Netherlands and Italy. The forecast for Budapest this weekend is for hot, sunny weather on Friday but quite cloudy on Saturday and Sunday with a chance of showers/Thunderstorms. We are used to this race being hot and sunny, but we have seen rain before.

Last year’s race saw rain before the race. Verstappen spun off the wet track and had to have his damaged front wing and suspension frantically repaired on the grid, his team getting the work done with minutes to spare before the start of the race. Intermediate tyres were required by all but the two Haas driver who gambled by starting on the mediums. The track dried very quickly and as the rest of the field pitted for slicks, the two Haas made up places and Magnussen was able to finish in ninth place but was demoted to tenth after a penalty was applied.

The weather forecast is annoying. It might rain, it might not. There could be a brief shower which will dry very quickly, or it could be a thunderstorm which soaks the track. It may be a result changing event, or it might remain perfectly dry. The forecast is also changing day by day. In the last 24 hours the emphasis on when the rain is most likely to fall has moved from Sunday to Saturday. It is now an 80% chance of showers on Saturday with just a 40% on Sunday, but it will remain hot for all three days.

Ante Post Selections

The weather forecast is a metaphorical cloud on the horizon and adds risk to ante post bets. However, these 50% chance of showers forecasts usually result in little or no rain.

The race winner is likely to be between Verstappen and Hamilton. They are in a different class right now. Verstappen is likely to have the better car and we should not forget that before Silverstone Verstappen was on run of three poles and three wins. Red Bull had won five races in a row and despite Mercedes’ upgrade for Silverstone, the RB16B still looked the better package.

This is a drivers track and that means Hamilton can make a difference above and beyond just the cars performance, but so can Verstappen. The bookmakers have Verstappen as the best priced 1.91 favourite, Hamilton 2.75.

We have the chance of rain mixing things up and we have the chance of another collision. Getting ahead in any race is important but on tracks like this and Monaco, it is essential. Overtaking chances here are restricted to a DRS pass on the start finish straight which means getting within a second of the car in front. Otherwise overtaking for the lead might will be restricted to late braking into turns one or going round the outside in turn two, both of which are quite high tariff and often result in contact, damage and possibly penalties being applied.

2021 Hungarian GP: Lower Speeds

The speeds are much lower than Silverstone, so any damage is likely to be survivable. However, we have seen plenty of broken wings and punctures as drivers try to get past. That may be enough to really hurt one or both drivers chances. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that the two market leaders clash again. It is hard to see it not happening again, maybe several times, during the rest of this season. I can’t see Verstappen getting out of Hamilton’s way. If Hamilton is deemed to cause another accident, his punishment will be much harsher than the slap on the wrist he got at Silverstone.

In the scenario that the two most likely winners do clash and suffer damage, that would leave the race more open for the likes of Bottas and Perez. Neither have particularly good records here. Bottas has had two third places, Perez only two points finishes in the turbo hybrid era. He is still struggling with the Red Bull, especially in qualifying and that is a major concern for his chances this weekend.

2021 Hungarian GP: First Time Winner?

Could we see the Hungaroring throwing up another first-time winner? Damon Hill, Fernando Alonso, Heikki Kovalainen and Jenson Button all got their first wins on this track. The most likely candidate would have to be Lando Norris. He has had three podiums already this year, but this track may not be ideal for them.

The one dark horse who may be worth backing to small stakes is Carlos Sainz. He is talking down his chances, but the Ferrari is better on tracks with plenty of corners and this track fits that bill. He performed very well at the other maximum downforce track this year, Monaco, and if the race were to get some rain, he is very handy in wet conditions. Charles Leclerc is the better qualifier and it is on Saturday where Sainz needs to up his game. His best qualifying of the season is fourth, again at Monaco.

This nothing more than a highly speculative bet and he needs a fair slice of luck for it to have any chance. But, this is a quirky track which can produce surprises. With the threat of showers, two drivers at the front at war and he is in a car that has scored two second places and two pole positions this season. On a track which should suit, Sainz might surprise.

2021 Hungarian GP Tip: 0.5 point Carlos Sainz to win @ 51.00 generally available

Further down the grid I quite like the chances of Lance Stroll to get back into the points. Fourth for Force India last year, the unfancied Canadian is in decent form, finishing in the points in three of the last four races and but for that tyre blow out in Azerbaijan, it would have been five from the last six. He was eighth at Monaco and looks a touch of value to get a point or two for Aston Martin this weekend.

2021 Hungarian GP Tip: 2 points Lance Stroll to finish in the points @ 2.30 with Ladbrokes

Aston Martin have managed just two double points finishes this season but one of them was at Monaco. Vettel is something of a track specialist here and he is due a break after failing to convert two Q3 performances into points in the last two races. Hopefully he doesn’t make another dopey error like he did at Silverstone last time out.

2021 Hungarian GP Tip: 1 point double points finish for Aston Martin @ 3.75 with Ladbrokes

The retirement rate in 2021 continues to be low. Silverstone saw just two and that means that nine of the ten races this season has seen two or fewer not classified drivers. The last two Hungarian GP’s have seen just one car not classified and hopefully this trend will continue. A sudden downpour is a threat but hopefully the drivers keep on taking the sensible pills and keep it on the island. One threat to this bet is that some teams are likely to use an old power unit for this race. This not a power sensitive track and it would be wise to save as much life in the newer units for power circuits like Spa and Monza which come after the summer break.

2021 Hungarian GP Tip: 2 points Over 17 classified finishers @ 1.80 with Pokerstars

-JamesPunt