2021 Italian GP Preview and Tips

The championship battle swung back Max Verstappen’s way in the Netherlands with an easy win at Zandvoort. The race didn’t quite go as I had expected, but it was profitable none the less. The third round of the triple header is this weekend’s 2021 Italian GP from Monza.

The third purpose built racetrack in the world, the cathedral of speed is a unique challenge of the F1 calendar. This is the fastest track on the F1 rota and it is all about speed, straight line speed and low downforce performance. The ultimate power sensitive track which has been dominated by Mercedes in the turbo hybrid era.

Dominated until 2019 when Ferrari, with a power unit that wasn’t strictly legal, won from pole position on home soil with Charles Leclerc. Last year the race was won by Pierre Gasly for Alpha Tauri, a race that was heading in Lewis Hamilton’s direction until a red flag threw the race into confusion. Hamilton pitted, unaware that the pit lane was closed, his penalty dropped him down the field and it was left to Gasly to hang on from the chasing McLaren of Carlos Sainz.

Mercedes was well ahead in terms of power at the start of the turbo hybrid era in 2014 and continued to be ahead until 2019 with Ferrari’s suspiciously powerful unit broke their run. Williams benefited from Mercedes power, and this was a track where they could be competitive even as their fortunes waned.

Power Advantage Gone

In 2021 that power advantage has all but gone. Honda are on a par with them, Renault closer but still behind while Ferrari are still trying to claw back the power lost when the FIA forced them to comply with the regulations. It is of course Ferrari’s home race, the one they most want to win, but their 2021 car is still a little underpowered and its strength lies on tracks with lots of corners and Monza doesn’t really do corners.

There are officially eleven corners but if you take out the three chicanes you are left with two 90 degree corners and two long duration curves. Low downforce is the order of the day, and the teams will all have bespoke aero packages purely for this race. It is hard to say which other tracks can be any sort of a guide for Monza. Baku with its ultra-long straight, requires a lower drag set up, but it also features a lot of corners. Spa is another track that requires lower downforce, but this year’s race wasn’t run and qualifying was tainted by rain. Silverstone is another of the high-speed track but requires more downforce for the more numerous corners. Those three are some sort of guide if not perfect. Those tracks require a trade off between low drag for the fast sectors and the downforce required for the corners.

Monza does have the famous Parabolica but the drivers just have to cope with that despite the low downforce. If they put on more wing to be faster there, they would just get consumed on the straights which make up the majority of the lap time.

2021 Italian GP: Big Boys To Battle For Pole

It seems likely, as has been the case for most of the season, that the battle for pole will be between Verstappen and Hamilton. Ferrari would love to be involved but they are still down on power compared to Honda and Mercedes, and their best performances have come on street circuits. It must be said that Ferrari are not an easy team to predict.

Mercedes is expected to be strong this weekend it is a traditional stronghold for them. With five pole positions and four wins for Hamilton in the turbo hybrid era, he must be fancied to be in contention once again. However Red Bull have triumphed in traditionally strong races for Mercedes already in 2021. Honda have closed the power gap and Red Bull are optimistic that they will be more competitive here this time, despite a fairly poor record. Verstappen has never finished better than fifth here which puts into perspective the kind of gap they must close.

Red Bull do have the best car this season, but this track is less about the car, and more about the power unit. This is Mercedes vs. Honda. Red Bull are downplaying their chances, saying that Mercedes still have a straight line top speed advantage. Mercedes also know what is required to get the job done and of the remaining nine races, this looks like the one they are most likely to have an advantage. 

Sprint Qualifying

This race weekend will see the second time that we have a sprint qualifying. The first time was at Silverstone when Hamilton qualified on pole for the sprint race, but Verstappen won that race and started on pole for the Grand Prix proper. I am not really sure what this format is bringing to the table. Yes, we effectively get two races and a bit more added value for spectators, but it makes Saturdays free practice session a bit of a waste of time. The cars set up is locked at the ‘normal’ qualifying stage on Friday afternoon/evening.

The grid formed by the sprint race at Silverstone was by and large like the grid produced by ‘normal’ qualifying. Perez spun out and had to retire from the sprint race, meaning he had to start the race in last place, but he can do that in ‘normal’ qualifying, as we saw last week. Those teams/drivers who have better one lap pace than race pace could struggle.

Alpine To Benefit

Pierre Gasly is a case in point, and he finished twelfth in the Sprint race, well down from his average qualifying position of 6.67. McLaren on the other hand are generally quicker in the race than in qualifying. Norris and Ricciardo qualified fifth and sixth in the Sprint race, about three places better than their normal qualifying positions and one place better than they achieved in the ‘normal’ qualifying session on Friday. Alpine also seemed to benefit by the sprint race qualifying.

The fact the teams only have the one-hour session in FP1 to set their car up for the rest of the weekend does put them under pressure to get it right quickly. Luckily, Monza is a very one-dimensional track, and the teams will come here with a very clear picture of what set up they need, i.e. the best low downforce set up that they have. FP1 will just be trying to fine tune that.

On the basis of just one sprint race qualifying to draw on, it is hard to say what, if any, impact sprint race qualifying has on the outcome of the race. Pierre Gasly would seem to have the most to lose, McLaren the most to gain. But at the front of the grid? Probably nothing.

2021 Italian GP: Driver Records

Monza is not really a drivers track. Which car has the most power is the dominant factor, but some drivers will have more positive mental associations with the place than others.

Lewis Hamilton may not be flavour of the month at Monza, but his success here means he comes with good memories of multiple wins and pole positions. Valtteri Bottas has always had Mercedes power at his disposal and has always scored well but has never won.

Max Verstappen has a very poor record having struggled in underpowered cars. He now has a more competitive package, and his first podium should be a realistic target. Perez has always finished in the top 10 here in the turbo hybrid era, but never better than sixth. He too will be expecting to better that, but his qualifying pace is a concern.

Ricciardo Consistent

Daniel Ricciardo has been a consistent performer here with five top 6 finishes sin 2014, despite not having the most powerful machinery at his disposal. His late braking style allowed him to be aggressive into the chicanes but his confidence under braking in this year’s McLaren has been non-existent. McLaren have Mercedes power this years and they should be aiming to be best of the rest this weekend.

Norris is at one with the car while Ricciardo is still not entirely comfortable. However, this is a track where a driver in a good car with a powerful engine, can recover from a poor qualifying session, so I expect Ricciardo to have one of his better weekends. The sprint race format favoured him at Silverstone and his weakness over one lap is not the big handicap it is at most circuits.

Carlos Sainz, last year’s second place excepted, has a dire record here and he will be hoping for a change of luck now he is racing for the home team. Charles Leclerc bookended his 2019 win with eleventh for Sauber in 2018 and a race ending crash for Ferrari last year.

Pointless Alonso

Fernando Alonso has never scored a point in the turbo hybrid era, never better than fourteenth in poorly powered cars. Esteban Ocon has enjoyed decent results here, two sixth places and an eighth. The two sixth places involved Mercedes power and he may struggle to match that with Renault power this time. That said, Alpine are happy with their low downforce set up and they will be in the hunt for more points. They have been in great form of late, getting double points finishes in the last three races (I refuse to call Spa a race). This may be harder with the Mercedes powered teams having a power advantage.

Vettel was a regular on the podium for Ferrari and he now has Mercedes power so it will be interesting to see how well he goes this weekend. Lance Stroll has always had Mercedes power, and this has been a happy hunting ground for him. He even got a podium last year and more points should be on the menu this weekend.

The weather forecast is for pleasant, warm and largely sunny conditions all weekend.

Ante Post Selections

Recent form has been mixed up by the crashes at the start of the Hungarian GP, the non-race in Belgium and a race at a brand-new venue last week. However, the qualifying sessions show that Red Bull are in good shape. Verstappen has qualified on pole in five of the last seven ‘normal’ qualifying sessions across different types of circuit. This will be tougher as Mercedes are going to be competitive and this is the acid test for the Honda power units.

As usual Verstappen and Hamilton are vying for favouritism for the race win but Hamilton just shades it at 2.10.

2021 Italian GP: 2 points Lewis Hamilton to win the Italian GP @ 2.10 with Betfair, Paddy Power, Pokerstars

McLaren hated coming to this circuit in the turbo hybrid era. They had Mercedes power in 2014 and finished eighth and tenth but they then moved to Honda power for three years and failed to score appoint. 2018 saw a switch to Renault power and they scored one point in 2019. Last year they qualified third and sixth, finishing second and fourth. Now they are back with Mercedes power, and they also have a better car. Norris is a prohibitive 1.33 to finish in the top 6, but Ricciardo makes sense and is odds against. How he copes with the heavy braking into the chicanes is the worry, but at least his poor qualifying performances should not be punished this weekend.

2021 Italian GP: 2 points Daniel Ricciardo to finish in the top 6 @ 2.63 with Betvictor

Staying with the Mercedes power theme, Aston Martin and Williams will be looking to capitalise on that advantage this weekend. Lance Stroll is a big fan of this track and has enjoyed a good deal of success on it, even qualifying on the front row in 2017 and finishing on the podium last year.

2021 Italian GP: 2 points Lance Stroll to finish in the points @ 2.00 with Ladbrokes

2021 Italian GP: 1 point double points finish for Aston Martin @ 3.50 with Ladbrokes

For an outsider bet this weekend, Williams offers some hope. George Russell is on his way to Mercedes next year, but priced like he is already in one. His teammate, Nicolas Latifi has quietly upped his results in line with Russell’s. The Mercedes powered Williams is still a very average car, but they are heading in the right direction and have Mercedes power.

Average cars with powerful engines can suddenly look quite good on very low downforce tracks. Poor aerodynamics are much less of a problem and pure power more important. The Monza track is not known for being windy and Williams’s wind sensitive car really does have the ideal conditions this weekend. Latifi was eleventh last year and while he needed some attrition to get that high, he now has a better car, and he is worth a speculative bet at big odds.

2021 Italian GP: 1 point Nicolas Latifi to finish in the points @ 19.00 with Betvictor

-JamesPunt