2021 Italian GP RaceDay Update

It’s time for James Punt’s Italian GP Raceday Update:

Oh dear. What has he done? Lewis Hamilton has screwed up what was looking like an easy win. A poor clutch release at the start of the sprint race saw him swallowed up by the soft tyre shod McLarens and Hamilton dropped back to fifth, were he stayed. He will now start fourth on the grid after Bottas takes his penalty and starts from the back of the grid. Not only could that cost him the race win, but he failed to score any points in the sprint race. Advantage Verstappen in the Championship race, but only if he can finish ahead of Hamilton.

Verstappen will be aiming to win from pole position, as four of the last seven races here have done. Lewis says that it will now be an easy job for Max to win the race while Max says he expects it to be far from straight forward.

Confusing Circuit

The circuit is making things a bit confusing. Mercedes have set the car up to get the best lap time, hence Bottas being the quickest driver in qualifying and converting that into a sprint race win. All that good work counts for little today as he had to change his power unit as it had a fault. It wasn’t a strategic move, they had to change it, or he would have retired.

Having the set up for the best lap time isn’t necessarily the best thing for the race, however. The Mercedes was making its gains in the chicanes not on the straights. Red Bull had to trim their car for very low downforce to mitigate for their naturally draggy cars time loss on the straights. This meant a slower lap time overall but as far as a race set up, theirs is a good one. The Red Bull will be a little slower in the chicanes and corners, but they will be hard to pass on the straights. It is hard to overtake in the chicanes and corners so as long as Red Bull have track position, they are in control.

Overtaking Tough

It has become very hard to overtake here despite the track seeming to offer ample opportunities. With the low downforce set up, the DRS effect is limited. It makes virtually no difference to straight line speed, and we saw nobody overtaking down the long start-finish straight. The very brave can attempt a late braking lunge into the first and maybe second chicane, but outside of that, the lap is a matter of follow the leader. The Sprint ‘race’ was a very dull affair and the race could be similar.

What can mix things up is the first lap. Contact is almost inevitable in the first chicane. These modern F1 cars have gotten longer and wider as the years progressed, but the track is till the same. Getting two cars through the chicane, side by side, is very difficult unless the two drivers are very circumspect, and some are not. Being at the front is a big advantage as hopefully you don’t have anyone trying to share the same space, for everyone else, it is a bit of a bun fight.

Italian GP Raceday Update: Drivers Behaving

The drivers have generally been well behaved this year. They do not want to hand the teams costly repair bills for a damaged car, but this track means that you can give away places by playing it safe and the more aggressive drivers might take a risk, there are not many chances to make up places after the start after all.

For Lewis Hamilton he has a bit of dilemma. He might be able to beat Verstappen, if he can get passed the two McLarens. With a better lap time, he may be able to jump Verstappen at the pits stop, but if he is behind the McLaren’s he will have to run at their pace, just like what happened yesterday. Would Hamilton take a high-risk approach on the first lap and try and take the two McLarens, risking a collision and maybe a retirement? I doubt it. A live to fight another day approach is more likely.

The Two McLaren’s have less to lose. They are fighting Ferrari in the Constructors Championship and don’t want to waste the opportunity to close the gap, but Norris and Ricciardo can almost taste the champagne and will be keen to get on the podium. They might just be more prepared to take a risk.

This could well be a two-corner race. If Verstappen leads after the second corner/chicane he is in a good position to win. For Hamilton to have a good chance, he must be second after that second corner.

Italian GP Raceday Update: Safety Car Likely?

What always make an opportunity to shake up the order is a safety car. We saw multiple yellow flags and safety cars in the F2 race as this track is difficult to retrieve cars from. The Dutch GP didn’t see the kind of yellow flag chaos that I expected but this is a track that can produce a few. That could see the leading driver seeing his lead shrunk behind the safety car. It also offers a chance for luck to play its part in terms of the timing and who can benefit from a cheap pit stop.

Races are rarely as straightforward as it seems they should be but Verstappen in in the box seat and odds of 1.67 are about right.

What of the McLaren’s? could it be a double podium finish? Probably not. The Mercedes of Hamilton does have a better lap time in it and even if they keep ahead at the start, they will be vulnerable at the pit stop. That said, one of them should be on the podium. Bottas is surely out of the picture starting from the back. Perez starts a disappointing eighth and has his work cut out to move up the order. The Two Ferrari’s have done well to start fifth and sixth but they are not really competitive this weekend. Leclerc was suffering with a tummy bug yesterday and he might struggle if that that persists. Carlos Sainz is lacking a bit of confidence after yet another crash yesterday.

Giovinazzi Finds Speed

Giovinazzi seems to have found great speed in qualifying now that his job is on the line, but he needs to have a clean start and convert that into points, and that is not a given. Lance Stroll starts nineth and hopefully he can convert that into some points, but Aston Martin have no specialist Monza spec parts package, so they are not optimised for this race. Track position is the key and Stroll is handy at the starts so he might pull it off. Vettel starts eleventh, sandwiched by the two Alpines and he has his work cut out to land our double points finish for Aston Martin, but he is in with a chance.

Our big outsider for a points finish, Nicolas Latifi, starts thirteenth but the Williams has been disappointing so far. They didn’t get the set up right in FP1 and have been on the backfoot ever since. Luck is required if that is to come in.

Race Day Selections

Our ante post bets are a mixed bag. Hamilton to win looked in good shape before the sprint race, but he is out to 3.25 now and needs a great first lap or a big slice of luck, which to be fair he does get quite often. Ricciardo to finish in the top 6 looks much better. He is now just 1.40 or less to do just that and only 2.75 to finish in the top 3. I fancy he can do that but don’t like putting too many eggs in one basket. Stroll for points hangs in the balance as is the Aston Double points finish.

It is hard to see much on offer for today’s race. With the sprint race qualifying format, we do not know which tyres the drivers will start on, they all have a free choice. The soft tyre gives great traction off the line and a chance to make up places, as the McLarens proved yesterday. Some may take that option and hope for a timely safety car to switch to hards and a run to the end. Others will see the medium as the better choice. It is an unwelcome additional factor.

Can Bottas Make A Move

It will be interesting to see how far Bottas can move up the order. He starts last (but Gasly now starts from the pit land after a power unit change). He is in the fastest car but has to do a lot of overtaking. We have seen how hard that can be, but more so against card with similar performance. He should be able to get to the back of the top 12 or so fairly easily and points are on the menu. How many is the question?

We saw Verstappen start 19th here in 2019 and finish 8th, Perez went from 18th to 7th in the same race. In 2017 Ricciardo came from 16th to 4th. It can be done but its not easy. A top 6 looks a big ask but he won’t be far off it. Ferrari look to have over delivered so far. Their car is best suited to the track and Leclerc may still be under the weather health wise. Bottas may be able to beat Leclerc if the Ferrari drops back a little.

Italian GP Raceday Update: 1 point Bottas to beat Leclerc @ 1.91 with Ladbrokes

Giovinazzi starts an impressive seventh on the grid. He started seventh in the Netherlands last week but only finished fourteenth. He was unlucky as he got hit on the first lap and had to pit for repairs which ended his hopes for a big result. With track position so important here, he looks a tempting price to win Ladbrokes Group 2. He is grouped with the two Alpines and two Aston Martins. He has been made the fourth favourite despite starting ahead of the rest of the group. A clean start and a clean race and he has a chance. Alonso is a very good starter and looks a big threat, but the Astons are not optimised, while Ocon starts back in twelfth place. It is worth a speculative punt.

Italian GP Raceday Update: 1 point Giovinazzi to win Group 2 @ 5.50 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt