2021 King George Chase Preview and Tips – Dave Stevos
2021 King George Chase Preview
On Boxing Day (or St Stephen’s Day for our Irish readers) the highlight is the King George Chase at Kempton. This 24f Grade 1 is a race that every trainer would love to win but the last twelve renewals have been shared between just three handlers. Nicholls (7), Henderson (3) and Tizzard (2) have dominated and all three are represented again in the 2021 King George Chase. Will one of them win this year’s renewal, or can Mullins, De Bromhead or Scott break their stranglehold? Check out what Dave Stevos’ thinks in his ante-post preview below.
2021 King George Chase
Clan Des Obeaux
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
2021 King George Chase Odds: 11/4
Clan Des Obeaux loves it at Kempton. The 9yo son of Kapgarde was foiled in his bid for a third King George win by stablemate Frodon last season. He could only manage third but he had an excuse. In his reappearance run at Haydock last season he had a very hard race on heavy behind Bristol De Mai and that must have left a mark on him. He signed off last term with successive G1 wins at Aintree and Punchestown and this will be his first run of the year.
When he won this race in 2018 and 2019, he had the benefit of a previous outing so his lack of a run has to be viewed as a negative. Nicholls is probably reacting to what happened last season but Clan De Obeaux hasn’t won first time up since winning a 3yo hurdle back in 2015. In a race of this quality he’ll need to be at his best and while he is well suited the trip, track and the likely ground, at odds of 11/4 he looks short enough. There is better value to be found elsewhere.
Minella Indo
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead
2021 King George Chase Odds: 3/1
Last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner bids to become the first Irish trained horse to win this race since Kicking King in 2005. Can he end the drought? Well, there is no doubt about his class and natural ability. Henry De Bromhead’s 8yo had run poorly in his two prep runs for the Gold Cup last season, falling in the Savills’ Chase at Leopardstown and then only finishing 4th behind Kemboy at the same track at the Dublin Racing Festival in February. The son of Beat Hollow was sent off at 9/1 on the back of those two efforts in the big one but he belied those odds to lower the colours of A Plus Tard by over a length.
Minella Indo returned to action in the Irish Champion Chase at Down Royal (24f sft). Sent off the 5/4 fav, the Gold Cup hero could only manage 3rd (5L behind Frodon). He clearly needed the run badly that day and you will see a far sharper version of him at the King George. The likely decent ground will be absolutely perfect for Minella Indo but will the track suit? Only one of his six career wins have come going right handed. Going left handed he has form figures of 11211F41 whereas going the other way he has form figures of 332123. That doesn’t look too bad at first glance but in those 5 placed races he was beat 5.25L, 9.25L, 4L, 8L and 5L. At odds of 3/1, he doesn’t appeal.
Frodon
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
2021 King George Chase Odds: 5/1
If you don’t like this horse, there might be something wrong with you. He is as brave as they come and he had the season of his life in 2020/21. Since his defeat in the Ryanair in March 2020, Frodon has won four of his six starts, all for Bryony Frost. The highlight was undoubtedly his gutsy victory in this race last season. The 9yo son of Nickname made all and despite jumping slightly to the left at times, his rivals couldn’t lay a glove on him and he scored by over 2L from Waiting Patiently (who we were on at 25s).
Nicholls’ rightly decided to have a crack at the Gold Cup but 26f around there is just too far for Frodon. He actually ran a cracker and was bang there two out but his stamina gave way and he faded into 5th coming up the Cheltenham hill. Nicholls’ charge comes into this year’s race on the back of another brave, front running win at Down Royal. This trip and track is perfect for him (was also a G1 Novice winner here) and I can see no reason why he won’t make another bold bid from the front. Of those at the head of the market, he probably represents the best value at 5/1.
Asterion Forlonge
Trainer: Willie Mullins
2021 King George Chase Odds: 11/2
What a frustrating horse Asterion Forlonge has been. He is an extremely talented, grey son of Coastal Path but his jumping has often let him down at vital moments. A Grade 1 winning hurdler, he has only managed to win two of his eight chase starts and he has failed to complete in three of them. It looked like he was going to put it all together in the John Durkan on his reappearance at Punchestown as he cruised into contention with just three fences left to jump. However, he pitched on landing at the third last and unseated Bryan Cooper.
A number of fences were dolled off in that race and that was clearly a massive plus for Asterion Forlonge. In these Grade 1 chases jumping is often the deciding factor and this 7yo just seems to lose concentration occasionally and it usually costs him dearly. His only wins over the bigger obstacles have come in a handicap and a beginners’ chase. There is no doubting that he has a Grade 1 engine but he has yet to show he is a Grade 1 jumper. No doubt he’ll have his supporters on the day but for me, he doesn’t appeal at around 11/2.
Chantry House
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
2021 King George Chase Odds: 11/2
The only other horse chalked up at single figure odds is Cheltenham Festival winner Chantry House. Trained by Nicky Henderson, this horse has progressed at a rate of knots since going chasing. He has won five of his six starts over fences, including two Grade 1 Novices. The 7yo son of Yeats reappeared with an outstanding performance last month at Sandown, beating The Big Breakaway by nearly 40L in a Listed chase. It was a perfect pipe opener and he now takes on some of the best 3 mile chasers around.
Chantry House had 5L to spare over Asterion Forlonge at the Festival. That was over 20f but he should still be able to uphold the form over this extra four furlongs. His win at Aintree proved he is equally as effective on a flat track and he won his chase debut going right handed so there are no worries on that front either. The only concern is his lack of experience at the very highest level.
Will he be able to jump as well as he has done in Novice company with Frodon setting a scorching pace? I’m not saying he won’t but until he actually goes and does it, it is an unknown. He definitely has less to prove in that department than Asterion Forlonge though. They are both 11/2 shots and if I was backing either one of those, I’d definitely be siding with Chantry House.
Lostintranslation
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
2021 King George Chase Odds: 10/1
In March 2020 Lostintranslation ran a huge race in the Gold Cup. He was just 1.5L behind Al Boum Photo in 3rd and big things were expected from him last season. However, like so many of Tizzard’s horses, this son of Flemensfirth completely lost his form. A 47L defeat behind Bristol De Mai and Clan Des Obeaux on his seasonal bow was a sign of things to come. He was then pulled up in this race, was beat 26L in a G2 at Newbury and then he was again pulled up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup on his final run of the campaign.
Nobody knew what to expect when he returned to action at Ascot a month ago. Lostintranslation didn’t disappoint, winning that Grade 2 comfortably by 4L ahead of Master Tommytucker and 16L ahead of Dashel Drasher. It was his best run since that Gold Cup 3rd and it will have done wonders for his confidence. I’d imagine we’ll see a very different Lostintranslation this year compared to the one we saw in this race in 2020. Yes, his desperate form last season can’t be overlooked but he clearly wasn’t 100% healthy. Odds of 10/1 look pretty generous and he definitely has e/w claims if he brings his A-Game.
Saint Calvados
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
2021 King George Chase Odds: 16/1
This is another horse that has form in the book that would give him every chance here. He has changed yards during the off-season, moving from Harry Whittington to Paul Nicholls. A five time chase winner, he has yet to score at Grade 1 level. The 8yo son of Saint Des Saints has gone close at the top table though. His best ever run came in the 2020 Ryanair Chase when he went down by a neck to the mighty Min. That was on soft ground though and seven of his eight career victories have come on testing ground.
Another worry for Saint Calvados is his form going right handed. All his best form has come going the other way and he has form figures of 34U going right handed. The fourth came in this race in 2020 when he finished 8.5L behind Frodon. His lack of a recent run isn’t that big of a worry as he won first time up in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019. He tried to win this on his seasonal bow last season but he failed to break the trend of the last 12 King George winners having at least one prep run. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran a nice race but there are enough negatives to put me off backing him, even at odds of 16/1.
Tornado Flyer
Trainer: Willie Mullins
2021 King George Chase Odds: 33/1
If you are looking for a bit of each way value, you could do a lot worse than back Tornado Flyer at 33/1. This fella has been very highly tried over fences and he has justified his trainer’s confidence in him more than once. In the John Durkan in 2020 he ran a massive race behind Min, going down by 1L in the mud. He then ran poorly twice at Leopardstown before finishing a creditable third in the Ryanair behind Allaho and Fakir D’oudairies. He made his reappearance in the John Durkan three weeks ago and while he only finished 5th, it was an eye-catching run.
Tornado Flyer was outpaced 4f out but he started to hit top gear as they approached the second last and no horse jumped the last fence better or finished stronger than him. He finished just a head behind Fakir this time and 8L behind the winner. The way he ran that day suggested that he is well worth another crack at 24f, especially going right handed. His best form by far has come going in that direction, especially at Punchestown. His form figures going right are 1114225 in comparison to 3P11P35543 going to the left. 3 miles at a track like Kempton could bring out the best in this son of Flemensfirth and if it does, he is capable of going close at odds of 33/1.
Mister Fisher
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
2021 King George Chase Odds: 40/1
On his last run at Sandown (22f gd) Mister Fisher was beat a neck by Frodon off level weights. The Nicholls horse is 5/1 for this race and the Henderson horse is 40s. Mister Fisher is 2/2 at Kempton, winning his bumper and novice hurdle at the track. He was a Grade 2 winning novice chaser, he won a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in December 2020 and when he is on song, he is capable of mixing it at the top table.
However, it is impossible to ignore the fact that he has failed to complete on three of his last five starts. He has also usually needed his first run back of the season. His Kempton record is eye-catching and if he is fully fit and ready to go, he could well outrun his odds here. 40s does look a bit big considering that Frodon form but his lack of a recent run is off-putting.
Dashel Drasher
Trainer: Jeremy Scott
2021 King George Chase Odds: 66/1
This son of Passing Glance is one of my favourite horses in training. Matt Griffiths struck up a tremendous partnership with the bold jumping front runner and I hope he is making a good recovery after his accident. Rex Dingle got the leg up on him at Ascot on his seasonal bow but he proved no match for Lostintranslation. However, the ground was plenty quick enough for him and he is a much better horse on soft or heavy.
His G1 win last season came on heavy at Ascot (21f), a course he loves. If he runs here it will be his first go at beyond 22f and with Frodon taking him on for the lead, he has to rate as a doubtful stayer. Jeremy Scott’s horses are running really well though and even if this horse doesn’t win, he’ll play a central role in the race. His presence will ensure Frodon doesn’t get a soft lead and if they get racing early, they could set it up for a closer. Hopefully he runs a big one but he has too much to prove and he is passed over at odds of 66/1.
2021 King George Chase: The Verdict
This really is a fascinating race. Frodon is going to go from the front but an easy lead is unlikely if Dashel Drasher shows up. Clan Des Obeaux lacks a recent run and that is enough to put me off him. Minella Indo may well be best going left handed and I’m not sure Kempton is the track for him. Asterion Forlonge’s jumping issues cannot be ignored and at similar odds, Chantry House looks a more solid proposition.
Lostintranslation comes into this race under the radar. If you put a line though last season he would be on the crest of a wave following his brilliant Gold Cup 3rd and an easy win on his comeback. He had valid excuses when running poorly in this race before and he looks a shade overpriced at 10/1.
However, the one that looks most overpriced at 33/1 is Tornado Flyer. He has snippets of form, especially on right handed tracks, which would give him every chance. On his John Durkan run last time stepping up to this trip looks a great move and he should be well suited by a strongly run race, a likely scenario with Frodon and Dashel Drasher in the field. Is he good enough to win? I hope so, but he is definitely talented enough to place. At the prices, he is the each way selection for the 2021 King George Chase at odds of 33/1.
