2021 Melbourne Cup Preview and Tips by Dave Stevos
2021 Melbourne Cup Tip
I am still reeling after Monsieur Lecoq’s narrow defeat on Saturday. I still don’t know how he got beat. Apart from that it was another poor day. It is always tough at this transitional time of year with so many horses having their first runs back. There are no such issues with The Race That Stops A Nation. I haven’t had much luck in this race in recent years but hopefully that’ll change in the early hours of Tuesday morning. I like the chances of a 40/1 poke e/w, check out my 2021 Melbourne Cup preview and tip below.
4.00 Flemington – Melbourne Cup Handicap (Group 1)
At odds of 40/1, The Chosen One could spring a surprise for Baker and Forsman with Damian Lane doing the steering. This 6yo son of Savabeel will be having his third run in this contest. In 2019 he finished 17th but it was a better run than that lowly finishing position suggests. He was second last and a good 15L off the leaders as they approached the home turn and as they fanned out into the straight he encountered traffic problems. He never really got to hit top gear so to finish just 5L behind the winner wasn’t a bad effort at all.
The Chosen One showed that run was no fluke with a couple of superb efforts in G1s. First, at Otaki (8f gd/sft) and then when he was beat a head in the Sydney Cup at Randwick (16f sft). After a 5 month break he returned with a handicap win off top weight at Flemington (8f gd). He then ran two below par races before he ran a huge race in the Caulfield Cup. He was beat just a length in 3rd behind Verry Elleegant and that was followed by an excellent run in the 2020 Melbourne Cup. `
Track Position Key
Unlike in 2019 when he was drawn 22 and dropped out in rear, last year his jockey was able to get him into a lovely position in midfield from stall 17. He was able to launch his challenge in the straight from a far better position, even if he did come a bit wider than ideal. That probably cost him a better placing than 4th in the end. However, it was still a superb effort and this year, he is drawn even lower in stall 5.
Damian Lane rides him this time, a multiple G1 winning jockey. He has been on board for his last four runs and he has placed twice. His G2 run behind Superstorm back in September was a fine effort (beat 3/4L and wide). That form was boosted by the winner this weekend in the G1 Kennedy Cantala Cup. The 4th, Nonconformist, found only Incentivise too good in the Caulfield Cup last month. He was getting 8lbs in that race and he was a head behind The Chosen one off levels at Moonee Valley. The Chosen One gets 7lbs from Incentivise here so theoretically, he is handicapped to get to within 3 or 4 lengths.
Proven Stamina
One thing that our selection has over the favourite is that his stamina is assured. He has twice run nice races over 16f at Flemington and he also went agonisingly close over the trip on soft at Randwick in 2020. The fav is unproven at the trip and that gives hope that the theroetical 3 to 4L gap can be bridged. Now, he did admittedly run well below par in the Caulfield Cup last time. I am never one to hold one poor run against a horse though. Especially when the Melbourne Cup has likely been the long term target.
This horse definitely gets 16f but he has plenty of speed in his locker too. The negatives are that run last time and his draw could possibly be a bad thing too. This horse probably can’t afford to be too far back but he isn’t a front runner so hopefully Lane can work his magic and get a nice early posi in the top half of the field on the rail. If he manages that and The Chosen One gets a clear run, he could go close. He is well capable of running into a place at least in the 2021 Melbourne Cup. So, at odds of 40/1, an e/w play is advised.
