2021 PDC Premier League Preview

Last year’s Premier League started under ‘old world’ conditions and the first six rounds were played in the big, crowd filled arenas. However, all subsequent rounds where at first postponed due to the pandemic. Once it became clear that there would be no chance of crowds being permitted for a long time, the decision was made to complete the 2021 PDC Premier League behind closed doors.

The remaining phase 1 and all the phase 2 matches were played at the MK Arena over 10 nights. The players had a couple of nights off, but it was far removed from the ‘real’ Premier League which is played all over Europe every Thursday night. There was no crowd and very little travelling. There was a five week break before the finals were played behind closed doors at the Ricoh Arena in Coventry in early October.

The changed circumstances may have had an influence on the outcome. Five-time winner and seven-time finalist, Michael van Gerwen failed to make the play offs for the first time, ending up 6th. The four players to make the play offs were Gary Anderson, Nathan Aspinall, Glen Durrant and Peter Wright. It was the two debutants Durrant and Aspinall who reached the final, with Glen Durrant winning the match and title 11-8. As it turned out, that was the highwater mark for both players’ seasons.

No Crowds

This season’s Premier League will be played behind closed doors, at least for the entire first phase, at the Home of Darts, the MK Arena. The first five rounds will be played from April 5th to April 9th, the next four matches from April 19th to April 22nd. Again, little travelling and no crowds. The second phase is still to be confirmed and there is hope that at least some sort of a crowd may be allowed to return to indoor venues by May or June. It is very unlikely that we will see a return to the big arenas. But, there is a chance that the Premier League will finish with a crowd in attendance.

The line-up of players taking part sees some new faces along with the regulars.

The Players, Odds and Previous Performances

Michael van Gerwen – 3.50  W/RU/RU/W/W/W/W/6

The Premier League has been a massive cash generator for MVG. He had seven consecutive finals of which he won five. Last year was something else altogether and summed up his very disappointing season.

Mighty Mike comes into the 2021 PDC Premier League still in relatively poor form. His last tournament win was the Players Championship finals at the end of November last year. He lost in the quarter final of the World Championship, the second round of the Masters and the semi-final of the UK Open.

MVG played in the first round of Players Championship qualifiers, Super Series 1. He won ten of his fourteen matches, averaged 98.3, but failed to win a title. He reached one semi-final but was thumped 7-3 by Damon Heta. After his UK Open semi-final defeat to Luke Humphries, he decided to skip the upcoming Super Series 2 in order to go home for a break.

Enigmatic

Michael van Gerwen is a bit of an enigma at the moment. His scoring remains top class, but he is getting used to losing matches. He is no longer the top dog. More and more players are beating him. It was Devon Petersen who said that the players are like sharks who can smell MVG’s blood in the water. They are circling him before one of them goes in for the kill. He has lost that fear factor and his confidence has taken a hit. Confidence is currency in darts.

He may be a player who needs a crowd. Nine times out of ten the crowd would be with MVG and he struggled on the rare occasions when they were not. He has to play this first phase without a crowd and that is a negative.

Gerwyn Price – 3.50  10/5/5

The World Champion and World number 1 ranked player. He is not at the same level that MVG or Phil Taylor were at their peak, but he deserves to be the number 1. He followed up his World Championship win with a semi-final at the Masters and the semi-final at the UK Open. Price only played the first two days of Super Series one, going home early with an ear infection but returned to form at Super Series 2, winning PC6 on day two and was runner up to Peter Wright in PC8.

The Iceman deserves to be joint favourite for the 2021 PDC Premier League despite a record which is not great. Plumb last in his debut season in 2018 and missing out on the play offs for the last two years. His debut season was when he was the darting publics enemy number 1. He got dogs abuse at every venue bar Cardiff and he hated the whole experience.

In 2019 the abuse was just as bad. He knew what to expect which helped, but he was still facing very difficult conditions. Last year, when we had the crowds, he won just one match from six, with three draws. Behind closed doors he won five from ten with two draws. Perhaps the fact that he is now the top dog and will have no crowds to abuse him, will allow him to convert those draws into wins. He should make the finals night.

Peter Wright – 7.00  5/9/5/RU/7/8/SF

From being the 2020 World Champion and winning three televised tournaments in the season, Snakebite went off the boil since winning the European Championships last autumn. His World Championship defence amounted to dressing up as The Grinch in his opening match and then losing in the next round. He won seven from eleven at Super Series 1 but two top 16’s was as good as it got. Wright then fell at the first at the UK Open before returning to form on the last day of Super Series 2, winning his first title of the year.

As usual he has been changing his darts on a regular basis. One day some very long ones, the next some horrible stubby things. Sometimes he plays in glasses, sometimes not. Despite that, he is still generally playing to a high level and stats wise he is still one of the very best players there is. However, his Premier League record is poor. He was runner up to MVG in 2017, a match that he really should have won, and made finals night last year. Otherwise, it is not great for a top player.

Dimitri van den Bergh – 13.00  Debut

It is a bit surprising to see Van den Bergh as the fourth favourite given that he remains some way from full fitness. The young Belgian enjoyed a very good 2020 season, winning the World Matchplay, the semi-final of the Grand Slam and World Cup along with quarter finals at the World Championship and UK Open. He played much of the season in a knee brace which didn’t see to hinder him.

Since having surgery this year, he remains in the brace and his form has dropped off. He reached the fourth round at the World Championship, unlucky to lose to Dave Chisnall. However, he then lost in the first round at the Masters and lost his opening match at the UK Open. His floor form saw him win just one match at Super Series 1 although his scoring was good. Super Series 2 was just two wins but again, his scoring was good. He is playing well but losing and eventually that hurts confidence.

I would want to see more wins for a 13.00 shot. Getting off to a slow start in the League very quickly puts the pressure on and he cannot afford to play well but lose.

Gary Anderson – 15.00  W/8/10/SF/W/SF/SF/SF/-/SF

This is Gary Anderson’s self-professed comeback year. Hard work, practice, play in everything and get back to the top. He started the year as runner up to Gerwyn Price in the World Championship, lost his opening match at the UK Masters, won seven from eleven at Super Series 1, lost his opening match at the UK Open and only won two matches at Super Series 2. Anderson elected not to play on the final day. That is not a great start to the big comeback year.

To be fair his new practice regime with Ryan Searle is unlikely to have got under way yet, but he has played 21 and won 11 in 2021. Not great. What is great is his Premier League record. A two time winner, albeit the last was six years ago, and he has made the play off in his last six league appearances (he didn’t play in 2019 due to injury).

Set In His Ways

Gary is not a great one for change and he found the whole behind closed doors thing a bit strange, especially the artificial crowd noise. However, there was one thing he liked about last year’s PL when it went behind closed doors. No travelling. He could just get on with it and get the bulk of the matches played in ten days.

Much like Michael van Gerwen, Anderson targets two events every year. The World Championship and the Premier League. They are the most prestigious and richest tournaments. Play well in them and your bank account runneth over. His problem this year is that he comes into the event in poor form. Also, the fact that the matches will be played in short order, means he doesn’t have time to get his form back. He will have to play himself into form sharpish if he is to continue his great record of making the play-offs.

Normally the PL is played over four months. Players coming into the first round in poor form can have regained it by the end of the month and still have plenty of time to make the cut. This year round one to Judgement night consists of nine rounds, played over two and a half weeks. Players are going to have hit the ground running. There is no time for a leisurely run up.

I like Anderson’s odds given his tournament record, but his form is a major concern.

Jose de Sousa – 19.00  Debut

The enigmatic Portuguese Man o’ Scores is very hard to call. This is his debut in the PL and usually debutants struggle to get used to it. However, this is the Premier League in name only. In the Old World these matches were played in the biggest arenas with huge crowds, one match a week at venues spread over Europe. In the Covid World, it is played at the MK Arena, with no crowd. The only travel is back and forth to the hotel bedroom next door. His lack of experience in the PL means nothing this year.

De Sousa has proven that he can win a major title played behind closed doors and this is not a lot different. OK the matches can be drawn but this is just like any other major played behind closed doors. This must be in his favour.

Solid Form

His form in 2021 saw him lose his first-round match at the Masters. He won seven from eleven at Super Series 1, won two matches at the UK Open and won 8 from 12 at Super Series 2. His form in the final two days of Super Series 2 was his best, winning seven from nine and scoring very well. If he keeps that form going then he can go far. However, his form for the rest of the year has been very mixed. He was hitting 110 one minute and 88 the next.

De Sousa will win matches, he is too good not too, but he needs to up his consistency. That said, this is a tournament where you can lose, but still win. The only other tournaments where you can lose but still win is the Grand Slam of Darts and the Champions League of Darts. The CLOD wasn’t played in 2020 and De Sousa won the GSOD. He remains on the short list at decent odds.

Jonny Clayton – 21.00  Debut

There are times when you look at the odds for an event and then have to rub your eyes to make sure you are seeing them right. The odds for Jonny Clayton are a case in point.

WTF is Clayton doing being offered at 21.00?

Fellow Welshman, Gerwyn Price, may be the World Champion and World number 1, but he is the second best Welsh Player on 2021 form. That honour goes to Jonny Clayton. Nobody has played and won more matches this year than The Ferret. He is a winning machine.

So far in 2021 Clayton has played 47 matches and won 40, that is an 85% win rate. That is ridiculous. Contrast that with joint favourite, MVG. Van Gerwen has played 15 and won 10, a 66.7% win rate. Very good but substantially far off 85%. MVG is a 3.50 shot, but Clayton is 21.00. WTAF! Clayton has won three titles and been runner up in two other events. MVG has won squat.

If you only have one bet this year, make it Clayton to win the Premier League, you are unlikely to see better value. He should be the favourite.

Nathan Aspinall – 21.00  RU

Last year’s runner up has hit something of a slump in form. He may be one of the players most affected by playing behind closed doors. Aspinall arrived at the top level in 2019, winning the UK Open at a rather lovely 126.00 and that along with two World Championship semi-finals and two other major quarter finals, saw him end 2020 as the world number 6.

His good run of form at Ally Pally ended in December with a second round exit and his 2021 form hasn’t been great. He reached back to back semi-finals in players championship 1 and 2 but the later was something of a lucky draw as his scoring was poor. So far this year he has played 24 and won 14.

That probably flatters him a little and he has won just three of his last ten. He is averaging 92.9 in the players championship that suggests that he is likely to struggle against more than a few of the other players in the league. The Asp looks more likely to miss the cut than make the play offs.

Glen Durrant – 26.00 W

The defending champion comes into this year’s event is terrible form. Winning this title last year was the biggest win of his life but within weeks, Durrant caught Corona virus, was very ill and his form has never recovered. He seems to have recovered physically, but that took quite some time.

After winning the Premier League Durrant went straight to Germany for the European Darts Grand Prix, losing in the third round, exhausted by his schedule. The following week he headed back to Germany for the International Darts Open.

However, he was stopped at the airport in Germany showing signs of Covid19 and sent back to the UK where he became ill. That forced him out of the European Championships and he didn’t return until the Winter Series where he won just two matches from seven.

Unconvincing

Duzza lost all three group matches at the GSOD, lost in the first round of the Players Championship finals. Durrant won two matches at the World Championship but he remained far from convincing. In 2021 he has played 19 and won just 9. He reached a quarter final in Super Series 1 but that was a day when he got a good draw.

He won just two matches in Super Series 2 and on the final two days his two first round defeats saw him average 80 and 87. Across the eight players championship events he has averaged just 90.1. That is 89th on the 3 dart average table.

From being one of the hardest players to beat he has become very, very ordinary, and has been since he caught the virus last October.

We backed him to make the play offs last year, this year he looks a stick on to miss the cut on, or before, Judgement night.

Rob Cross – 41.00  SF/RU/6

It is fair to say that Rob Cross is another player who is long term out of form. Perhaps not as dramatically as Glen Durrant, but he is not the player he was in 2018 and 2019. Occasionally we see flashes of the old Cross, but his confidence is shot to bits and it is like he expects to lose these days. He reached the final of the World Series of Darts last September and the final of the World Cup with Michael Smith, but outside of a quarter final of the 2020 UK Open, his form last year was poor. Somehow, he managed to hang on to his number 4 in the world rankings at the end of the 2021 World Championship and hence automatic qualification for this Premier League.

His 2021 form has seen Cross play 22 and win 12 matches. He reached a quarter final in Super Series 1 and had a 109 average in a 6-1 win over Daryl Gurney. That is what I mean when I say we get to see flashes of the old Cross, but while he looks capable of getting a few wins in the 2021 PDC Premier League, he has to be considered as one of the favourites to miss the cut come Judgement night.

2021 PDC Premier League: Ante Post Selections

2021 PDC Premier League Tip: 5 points Jonny Clayton to win the Premier League @ 21.00 with BET365

Anything at 13.00 or better is acceptable. It is a strong bet, but it does not mean to say that Clayton is nailed on. However, his odds are plainly wrong and if we could get 21.00 about 6.00 shots on a regular basis, life would be good.

I was hoping to be able to put up some bets on the side markets, but the bookmakers have yet to price them up. Hopefully there will be more to come nearer the start of the 2021 PDC Premier League on the 5th of April.

“PDC darts is a trouser leg, and The Ferret is going up it” – Dan Dawson.

-JamesPunt