2021 Qatar GP Preview and Tips

The last of this batch of three back-to-back races. This will be the first time that Formula 1 has visited Qatar and the Losail circuit. The track was specifically built to host Moto GP races and was opened in 2005. It is a fast and flowing layout with mostly medium and high speed corners. It looks like overtaking will be difficult outside of the DRS zone on the long start-finish straight. There will be a premium on qualifying for the 2021 Qatar GP as a result.

The track is not used a lot so it will be green and dusty to start with but evolving through the weekend. That can make getting a clear picture difficult as the cars will get quicker as the weekend goes on.

The track surface is said to be quite abrasive. With the high-speed corners and big lateral loads, the tyres will be taking a beating. Pirelli have brought the hardest compounds in the range to compensate. Pirelli say this track is expected to be very hard on the tyres and this hardest range of tyre compounds has been used four times this year, in Portugal, Spain, Britain and the Netherlands.

Conditions Could Suit Hamilton

Those races saw three wins for Hamilton and one for Verstappen, though Verstappen got two pole positions. Three of those races saw a double point finish for Alpine. The Alpine team boss is a former Moto GP team boss, and he knows the track better than anyone, but only for two wheeled vehicles.

The race will be held under floodlights and the second practice session is going to be the only one which takes place at the same time as qualifying and the race on Sunday. However, the track is unlikely to be fully cleaned up and rubbered in by then. So, getting a proper grip on the relative form of the teams is going to be hard this weekend.

2021 Qatar GP: Guessing Game

There are just three races of the season to go and two of them have never hosted an F1 race. This one, and the Saudi Arabian GP, held on a track that is not even finished yet. That means a lot of guessing as to who be fast where and placing a greater than usual degree of risk on ante post betting. Even the Abu Dhabi GP will see a much-revised layout, so we are heading into the unknown just as the Championships are about to be decided.

Lewis Hamilton’s win in Brazil has given Mercedes new hope of hanging on to both championships. There has been much speculation as to how he found so much speed at Sao Paulo. As usual there is no one reason but a combination of factors which are unlikely to be repeated.

Firstly, was that he took a brand-new internal combustion engine. The Mercedes engine has been suffering with a high degree of performance degradation. It loses power with every race, not something that affects the Honda unit to anywhere near the same degree. The power unit he raced in Brazil, will not be as powerful this weekend. He is not going to lose a heap of time, but it will be less powerful.

Brazil Suited Mercedes

Another factor was the nature of the track in Brazil. The long drag up the hill, down the straight and into the first corner rewarded power. Also, the DRS effect was especially powerful, as was just the normal tow effect. Hamilton could run his new power unit in a more powerful mode and with the tow and DRS he was very fast in that part of the track.

Mercedes have got an effective sit down rear suspension which helps them reduce drag on the straights but they can also reduce drag by stalling the diffuser on the straight before it reconnects for the corners. It is something that their low rake design allows, and they have perfected this as the season has gone on. They can’t do this so effectively in high-speed corners as they need the downforce.

The layout of the Interlagos track allowed Mercedes to find a sweet spot with their set up. It suggests that the massive straight line speed advantage they had there will be less this weekend. It was likely to have been track specific, but they will still be faster down the big straight here than Red Bull.

Compromise Set Up

The layout of this track with its 1km long straight coupled with a lot of high-speed corners means the teams are looking for that compromise set up, but this weekend it is likely that the performance in the fast and medium speed corners that will be the key, rather than straight line speed. The Red Bull excels in these type of corners and if Mercedes try and counter that with straight line performance it may not work as well as in Brazil.

That said, Mercedes ran with a big wing in Brazil and didn’t suffer too much in the of straight line drag and they were fairly competitive in the corners. The new power unit, big wing, sit down suspension and diffuser stall combination was perfect in Sao Paulo. However, it may not be so powerful on this lay out.

This will be a learning weekend. The teams will arrive without the vast amount of data that they have for the majority of tracks. They will be building up that data on a green and dusty track and there is a good chance that some teams will get in a bit of a muddle as the weekend unfolds.

2021 Qatar GP Grid Penalties Unlikely

We should now be free of drivers having to take grid penalties for taking on new power units. Everybody seems to have taken the extra units they needed in recent races. There is some speculation, and it is no more than that, which says Mercedes may take a new ICU for Hamilton here, and maybe Saudi Arabia, purely because the benefits outweigh the penalty.

The rules are a bit silly. Grid penalties are applied to drivers who use more than their allocated three power units or components of the PU. The idea was to push teams to build power units with more longevity, to reduce costs and level the playing fields between the haves and have nots. Back in the day the big teams would use new engines for qualifying and a new one for the race, a hugely expensive and wasteful practice.

The problem with the way the new rules are applied is that a driver gets a ten place penalty for the first time he exceeds the three power unit component rule, but only a five place penalty for subsequent changes. If you are getting an extra 0.2 seconds a lap by fitting a new ICU for a 70 lap race, then it is a no brainer. So long as you have a track where overtaking is possible.

New Engines For Mercedes?

This year’s Mercedes engines, with their degradation problems, cannot be used as aggressively as in the past. That would just lead to failures. But if they are taking a new PU, then they can turn the wick up and the extra performance more than covers a 5 place penalty. So do not be surprised if Mercedes employ further new engines if their calculations say it makes sense. Other manufacturers who are not suffering the same degree of degradation, don’t get the same benefit and are unlikely to do the same. I can see this rule being tweaked for the future.

The chances of power unit penalties may have receded, but there is a new threat to the running order being mixed up. Penalties and technical appeals.

New Footage

Mercedes, despite winning the race, were unhappy that the race stewards did not investigate the Verstappen – Hamilton incident which led to both cars going wide at turn five. Previously unseen footage from the Red Bull in car camera has now become available. What it shows is a matter of debate and it throws little light on the matter, but Mercedes will say it proves Verstappen should have been penalised and he should have a penalty applied for this race. On a track were overtaking is going to be hard, that would hurt.

Red Bull and Mercedes have been called to a meeting with the Stewards later today, no doubt to review the matter. Mercedes will want a grid penalty applied, Red Bull will say there was no foul, and one team is going to throw their toys out of the pram.

Many former drivers have said that the incident does not warrant a penalty and I would be surprised if one was applied. It is not a good look to have championships decided in a steward’s office. Good sense will prevail, and the stewards will remind Hamilton that you can only pass the Dutchie on the left-hand side.

Rear Wing Issues

On Red Bull’s part, they remain concerned that Mercedes rear wing is behaving strangely, and they may lodge a protest in the hope that Mercedes is forced to modify it, just as Red Bull had to do earlier in the season. There would be no penalty but having to change the wing would hurt performance.

Of course, it may be that neither happens, but this is a race, for many reasons, were it is better to wait a little longer before pulling the trigger. There is much to be learned and betting on Sunday is the order of the day for this weekend.

The ante-post prices have Hamilton as the best priced 1.73 favourite with Verstappen at 2.75. That may be a touch generous on Verstappen, but there is too much risk to be betting at this stage.

The many long, fast corners here are not what McLaren will want to face. They have fallen 31.5 points behind Ferrari, and this is not a layout which looks McLaren friendly. They have picked up just two points in the last two races whilst Ferrari are finishing the season in fine form.

Alpine Can Shine at the 2021 Qatar GP

There is just one bet that I will risk making before the action starts this weekend and that is double points finish for Alpine. If McLaren continue to struggle, and the track doesn’t look a good fit for them, that may free up a place or two in the top ten. Alpine have had seven double points finishes this season and are maybe a bit unlucky not to have more.

They looked set for one in Turkey, but Alonso got nerfed on the opening lap which cost him a chance of good points after qualifying sixth. They have enjoyed good results when the hardest tyres have been available and that could be a plus for them this weekend.

2021 Qatar GP Tip: 1 point Alpine to have a double points finish @ 3.00 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt