2021 Royal Ascot Saturday Tips and Preview

I have say, I am absolutely delighted that this is the final day at Ascot. Since Berkshire Shadow’s win on Day 1 it has been very tough going. I was very hopeful that things would go better when the ground changed on Friday and we at least landed places at 25/1 and 9/1. Let’s hope we can finish stronger than First Company did yesterday. Check out our 2021 Royal Ascot Saturday preview and tips below.

2.30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed)

Aidan O’Brien has won four of the last ten renewals of this Listed heat. He fires one bullet this year, impressive 7f Curragh winner Point Lonsdale. The ground was yielding that day but this is going to be a different kettle of fish altogether. His brother Broome handles heavy so there is every chance this fella will too.

Andrew Balding’s Masekela is also entitled to maximum respect. Balding has already won two 2yo races with once raced winners and this horse won in good style on soft on his debut at Goodwood over 6f. Of the remainder, only one other horse has form on bad ground so it really is tough to know how the rest of the field will cope with the conditions.

I was going to keep my cash in my pocket for this race. However, as the only 7f winner on heavy in the field, I have to have a small interest on Radio Caroline. Mick Channon’s filly gets weight from the boys and that could help on this sort of ground. Conditions were horrible for her win at Haydock. She really had to knuckle down to hold off the late surge from Madame Ambassador. Maybe she’ll be completely outclassed here but given that she has won over the distance and on heavy ground, a small each way wager is advised.

2021 Royal Ascot Saturday Tips: Radio Caroline e/w @ 33/1

3.05 – Jersey Stakes (Group 3)

Light Refrain would be a fitting winner for The Queen and I think he has serious each way claims here. Trained by William Haggas, this horse is a confirmed mudlark. He has progressed nicely on his last three starts. He ended last season with a fine effort when beaten a neck by Nastase in a Listed heat at York (6f sft). The son of Frankel clearly wintered very well and he returned with a win in a Listed contest at Nottingham.

William Haggas decided to go up in class next time at Haydock into Group 2 company. Light Refrain could only manage 4th, beat a length, but he stayed on strongly all the way to the line and it looked like he was ready for a step up in trip. He went close twice in fast ground maidens over 7f last season but this will be his first try at the distance on his ideal ground.

Light Refrain is drawn in stall 8 so I am hoping that Tom Marquand can tack across. High drawn horses were heavily favoured on Friday so if he stays on the far side it could mean trouble. Even if he came up the middle he might be okay. Haggas has had a couple of winners already this week and with ground to suit, hopefully Light Refrain is another one for him.  At odds of 12/1, Light Refrain is worth backing each way.

2021 Royal Ascot Saturday Tips: Light Refrain e/w @ 12/1 (5 places)

3.40 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2)

This is a cracking Group 2 with some seriously talented sorts involved. Wonderful Tonight and Broome head the market but I have long believed that Japan is a horse that is best on heavy ground and hopefully he can prove me right today. Ryan Moore prefers Broome but Wayne Lordan is a good substitute and he was placed on him in the 2019 Epsom Derby. Japan went on to win his next three starts, including over today’s C&D, on ground ranging from good to soft to good. However, the run that makes him of big interest here was his fine 4th behind Waldgeist in the Arc on bottomless ground.

He finished 4th that day, 4L behind the winner, 2L behind Enable and 0.5L behind Sottsass. He also had Magical 2L behind in 5th. It was a super effort and I think his whole season last year was geared towards a repeat bid. The GAIN feeds scandal meant he was withdrawn on the eve of the Arc though. I think the fact he has stayed in training suggests that connections still feel he is capable of competing at the highest level.

He showed some of his old spark when winning on his return at Chester (13f gd/sft). He was no match for Pyledriver at Epsom last time. However, I believe you will see a much better horse on today’s testing ground. All roads lead to Longchamp for this fella and at 40/1 he could be worth a little punt ante-post. However, he should be piping fit today after his two runs and at the odds, he is worth chancing each way.

2021 Royal Ascot Saturday Tips: Japan e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)

4.20 – Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1)

The inclement weather will likely rob us of Starman for this race. Ed Walker’s star sprinter won’t appreciate the conditions and he said on ITV on Friday that unless there was significant drying, he would be taking him out of the race. The likely fav Dream Of Dreams handles soft but was well beat over today’s C&D his sole run on heavy. Nahaarr has never raced on worse than good to soft. His pedigree doesn’t suggest that these conditions will be to his liking.

Andrew Balding has had an unreal week so far and it might be worth chancing Happy Power. This fella loves it when the mud is flying. He is a three time soft ground winner and he ran well over a trip that stretches him here on his sole start on heavy. His best form has come over 7f but on today’s surface stamina will come to the fore.This horse definitely won’t be lacking in that department.

His two runs this season have come at a mile and he hasn’t hit the frame. At Newbury last time he wasn’t disgraced in trip behind crack miler Palace Pier. Those two runs should have left him spot on now dropping back in distance. Silvestre de Sousa prefers Art Power and Jim Crowley picks up a nice spare ride. He is 4/14 with four top 4 finishes for the owners and hopefully he improves on that frame hitting strike rate of 57% today. At odds of 33/1, Happy Power is the each way pick.

2021 Royal Ascot Saturday Tips: Happy Power e/w @ 33/1 (4 places)

5.00 – Wokingham Stakes Handicap (Class 2)

The first handicap of the day is the 6f Wokingham Stakes. A high draw is a must judging by yesterday’s finale and I am delighted to see that Ropey Guest is starting from stall 21. He ran here just two days ago in the Buckingham Palace and finished in midfield. The ground was far too quick for him, he was drawn on the wrong side and Tom Queally wasn’t too hard on him. He should be fine after that run and now that the rain has come, connections have decided to roll the dice here.

This horse is almost guaranteed to run his race on heavy ground. The drop back to 6f is a slight concern but this will hopefully be run at a good clip and that should bring his stamina into play. On his last start over 6f at Newmarket he was beat 1.75L by Ainsdale and that horse recently pushed Liberty Beach all the way in the G2 Temple Stakes at Haydock.

Chubby, as the Margarson’s like to call him, has a good record at on soft/heavy. He was only beat a couple of lengths into 6th in the Victoria Cup here over 7f on soft on his return last month off 98 and he is in off the same rating today. His career form figures on softer than good over 7f or shorter read 22346, with three of those runs coming at G3 level. At odds of 22/1, Ropey Guest is the e/w NAP of the day.

2021 Royal Ascot Saturday Tips: Ropey Guest e/w @ 22/1 NAP (6 places)

5.35 – Golden Gates Stakes Handicap (Class 2)

10f is the trip for the penultimate race at this year’s Royal Meeting, a 3yo handicap. A field of 16 go to post and form on a testing surface is thin on the ground. One horse that has at least won on soft is Pythagoras. He is by Zoffany, a sire whose progeny usually enjoy rain softened ground. Richard Fahey trains and this lightly raced Listed winner was due to run earlier this week but was pulled on account of the quick ground.

That decision could pay off as the rain has come and he gets his ideal conditions. He has won three races so far, a maiden on good to firm, a handicap easily off 77 and that Listed heat on soft at Pontefract. Pythagoras ran a nice enough race over this distance at Epsom back in April on ground that was too quick for him. He then finished down the field in the Dante but again, the ground was against him. I think this horse could end up being rated much higher than 101 on testing ground and he is the each way pick at odds of 14/1.

2021 Royal Ascot Saturday Tips: Pythagoras e/w @ 14/1 NB (5 Places)

6.10 – Queen Alexandra Stakes Handicap (Class 2)

The finale on Saturday at Royal Ascot is the marathon Queen Alexandra Stakes. A trip of 21.5f awaits them and on this ground, it’ll take some getting. This is a conditions race and to be honest, it is an absolute nightmare to try and work out. You’ve got horses rated in the 100s carrying the same weight as horses rated in the mid-80s and the distance is a complete unknown for the vast majority of them. To be honest, I could look at this race for the entire evening and I wouldn’t be able to pick out a value bet. There is no point in betting for the sake of it so I am going to do the sensible thing for once and sit it out. No bet.

 

2021 Royal Ascot Saturday Tips: No bet