2021 Russian GP Preview and Tips

The Sochi circuit used for the 2021 Russian GP isn’t a classic, but it does have a characteristic which might make it a great track for one of the midfield teams. We saw a McLaren winning the Italian GP, and doing it on merit, and there may be a chance for another team to join in the Red Bull – Mercedes duopoly.

The track features twelve 90-degree corners and two long straights which aren’t straight. It is something of a street circuit, not a pure one but it doesn’t have the flow of a purpose-built circuit. There is another track which we have already visited this year which featured eleven 90-degree corners, the Baku circuit in Azerbaijan. That track is another long lap street circuit with a very similar layout. Lots of braking into 90-degree corners, traction events accelerating out of them and long straights.

Mercedes Dominant

This Sochi track hosted its first GP in 2014, the first year of the turbo hybrid era, and it has been won every year by Mercedes. Lewis Hamilton has won four, Bottas two and Rosberg one. To be fair to Bottas, he had to gift the win to Hamilton in 2018 and he has been the better of the two Mercedes drivers around this track. Of course, he is now just playing a support role to Hamilton and may have to gift him another win.

This Mercedes fortress has not been a Lewis Hamilton fortress. He has two pole positions and four wins (three in reality) but Rosberg out qualified him twice and beat him once, Bottas has out qualified Hamilton twice beat him in the race twice and gifted him a win. We have had two Ferrari pole positions, one for Vettel, one for Leclerc. This is a track where Bottas is every bit as quick as Hamilton. The Finn has two wins and three other podiums, including one for Williams.

2021 Russian GP: Power Sensitive Track

The track is power sensitive which explains Mercedes dominance in the turbo hybrid era. The second most successful team here is Ferrari. They have had two poles and seven podiums but never a win. Perhaps they should have won in 2019, when they had the most powerful engine. Leclerc qualified on pole but was overtaken by Vettel at the start, as was expected by the team. However, Vettel then reneged on the agreement that he would hand the place back to Leclerc.

Ferrari then had to engineer a situation where Leclerc took the lead at the pit stop. Ironically, Vettel’s PU then failed and while his car was being recovered from the track, a virtual safety car deployment allowed the two Mercedes drivers to make a pitstop and Hamilton took the lead in the race as a result. Ferrari then pitted Leclerc under a full safety car after Russell crashed, this dropped him to third place, and he was unable to retake Bottas at the re-start. A typical Ferrari farce.

We have seen a few Mercedes fortresses being conquered this season. They have lost that power advantage which helped them dominate for so long. Will they be able to hang on to Fort Sochi? Probably.

Max The Main Threat

Their main threat is Max Verstappen who will have to take a three place grid penalty having be made largely responsible for the collision with Hamilton in Italy. A three-place penalty here isn’t too bad. The start of this race is a drag race down to turn two and it is relatively easy for a quick car to get a good tow and make up places at the start. This feature of the track layout makes qualifying position somewhat relevant. The driver in front is just giving a very effective tow to the car behind and pole position is something of a liability.

However, Red Bull are considering giving Verstappen a brand-new power unit this weekend. His power unit which was damaged at Silverstone is not repairable and Red Bull are going to have to bring a new power unit into the pool and take the penalty for doing so. Doing it at a track where you expect to lose, or at a track which allows for overtaking and a charge from the back and into the points, are the usual venues to take the pain.

Red Bull are going to assess the situation after qualifying and there must be a good chance that Verstappen starts from the back on Sunday. In 2018 Verstappen took a 43 place penalty and teammate Ricciardo a 40 place penalty. They finished the race fifth and sixth respectively. Something similar would be a decent result come Sunday, although I wouldn’t expect Perez to have to take a penalty.

2021 Russian GP: Qualifying

Last year saw Bottas qualify 3rd, a disappointing result on what is his strongest track. However, he seemed strangely pleased after qualifying and he knew that he was in a great position for the race. He used the tow at the start to overtake Verstappen. Hamilton was given two controversial penalties for making practice starts from outside of the designated area and he was given two 5 second penalties just before the race started. Hamilton would have to stop for 10 seconds at his pitstop which placed him third. That allowed Bottas to just bid his time in the race knowing that he would get the lead when Hamilton pitted.

Qualifying on Saturday (we are back to ‘normal’ qualifying this weekend) is likely to be a situation where the leading players are trying to get to the front of the grid, but maybe not the very front. Second or third will do fine. Verstappen will be doing his very best. If he can get pole, his three-place penalty will just drop him into a fairly handy spot. No wonder Red Bull never bothered to appeal the penalty. The team may yet opt for a new PU post qualifying, but on Saturday, he should be flat out.

The race has been won from pole just twice from seven starts, three times from second place and twice from third.

2021 Russian GP: Pole Not Pivotal

Yes, qualifying on Saturday will be very interesting. It is well known that pole position is not the place to be here. The last winner from pole was back in 2016 and the leading players will be trying to qualify second or third. Trying not to be first, but not being worse than third is not an easy thing to pull off. Ideally you would have posted second or third on your first flying lap, go out last for the final run in Q3 and abort if nobody had moved ahead for your time. Possible, but not easy.

But will anyone else join the party? Ferrari must be in the mix. They have been the fastest qualifier here in 2017 and 2019 and Leclerc has been on pole position twice in 2021, both on street circuits at Monaco and Azerbaijan. The Ferrari is still down on power compared to Mercedes and Honda, but their car likes corners and really liked all the 90 degree ones at Azerbaijan, something of a lookalike track to Sochi. Carlos Sainz had his best qualifying of the season at Monaco and joint second best in Azerbaijan, fourth and fifth respectively.

Ferrari In Fight With McLaren

Ferrari are in a battle with McLaren and not really eying up pole or a race win, just beating McLaren. They are unlikely to be trying to engineer second place on the grid but just going balls out to get the biggest lead over McLaren. Leclerc was not able to capitalise on his pole positions, not taking the start in Monaco and finishing fourth in Azerbaijan.

The car isn’t competitive enough to really race the Mercedes or Verstappen but given the right track, they can impress in qualifying. With Mercedes maybe not trying too hard on Saturday, a Ferrari might just enter the fray. Leclerc has been the fastest qualifier at Ferrari (10-4 vs. Sainz) and as a former pole sitter here, he is the selection. Or maybe not.

The plot has thickened, for two reasons. The first is that Ferrari have decided to finally introduce their upgraded power unit. It is said to produce an extra 10 bhp, not huge, but handy around a power sensitive circuit. It will only be in Charles Leclerc’s car as his power unit in Hungary was damaged beyond repair and Ferrari have had to introduce a new one into the pool. That means Leclerc will start at the back of pack.

Save Mileage

This won’t slow his qualifying pace, but will Ferrari bother to do more than a couple of laps in Q1? They may prefer to save the mileage on the PU. It is not the same for Red Bull. They have the choice of just taking a 3 place penalty and running an older PU or taking a new PU and starting from the back. Their decision will not be made until after qualifying. Ferrari have made their decision and they will be at the back with Leclerc.

To complicate things even further, the weather forecast for Saturday is bad, very bad. A band of heavy rain is moving across the region and dropping 4-5cm of the wet stuff. It is not showers, it is not going to maybe miss the track, it is 100% going to chuck it down. There is some disagreement as to the timing. Everyone agrees that it will be very heavy in the morning, but some forecasts have it clearing around the time of qualifying starting, so we could have a wet – drying session. Other forecasts say that it will be raining all day.

Things get more interesting when we consider the schedule for this weekend. There will be F3 and F2 races this weekend. It was supposed to just be F2, but the finale of the F3 season, which was supposed to be in Texas, has been moved to Sochi. That means the organisers have to fit in the three F1 practice sessions, qualifying and the race, along with three F3 races and three F2 races plus their practice and qualifying sessions.

2021 Russian GP: Will It Rain?

There was heavy rain in Sochi earlier in the week as the teams were setting up and parts of the paddock areas flooded, waist deep in water flooded. Now if that happens again on Saturday, are the organisers going to be able to run all the sessions? Will the morning be a wash out? Is there a chance that if the rain lasts all day that everything gets shifted to Sunday? That would be impossible to fit in one day and as F1 gets priority, the junior series may lose a race or two.

I am concerned that the F1 qualifying session may be a moveable feast. There are precedents for bad weather forcing qualifying to move to the Sunday and the weather on Sunday will be better. There is still a 60% chance of rain on Sunday morning but again, disagreement for the race itself. Some have the rain clearing to give a partly sunny afternoon, others with showers am and pm.

The only thing that is clear is that the weather is going to play a big part this weekend. This circuit is a confined street style lay out and that and heavy rain doesn’t mix well. I can see safety concerns perhaps meaning Saturday sees sessions cancelled or moved. There must be a greater amount of uncertainty of the outcomes as a result.

Conditions Could Suit Sainz

For that reason, and the fact that Ferrari are likely to choose not to run a full program for Leclerc in qualifying, means my plans for a decent bet on Leclerc for pole must be binned. But what of his teammate Carlos Sainz? He usually thrives in the wet and with a car that should suit the track he must enter the picture.

However, there are a couple of big buts. Sainz has a poor track record at Sochi. His best result was sixth in 2019 but his only other points finish was tenth in 2017. His other results were two DNF’s a twelfth and a seventeenth. Not good. On the positive side, he qualified sixth here for the last two years for McLaren, beating Norris both times.

There is also the fact that Sainz has been crashing a lot recently and I expect to see him in the wall at some point this weekend. He will also be running the older spec PU and there are plenty of negatives for him to overcome. On the upside is that the odds are ridiculous, even with those negatives. It is worth a small speculative bet.

2021 Russian GP Tip: 0.5 e/w point Carlos Sainz to qualify on pole position @ 151.00 with Ladbrokes, 101.00 generally available

The Race

For the race itself It would look like this is Mercedes to lose. Not being on pole position would not be a problem, their main opponent can only start fourth at best and perhaps from the back of the grid. The second Red Bull of Sergio Perez has largely been ineffective. He has finished ahead of both Mercedes just once, in Azerbaijan, and that was fortuitous. Perez has only finished ahead of Bottas four times in 2021 and his qualifying has been well short of what is needed. This track should allow for him to make up for some of that weakness. Perez has always finished in the points here, so he knows how to drive the track.

Valtteri Bottas is very good here, but he is a team player, and his job is to help Hamilton win another Championship and Mercedes another constructors championship. No doubt there will be some financial incentive for him to do just that and for Bottas to win, he needs Hamilton to be out of range for a win or having retired from the race. Both scenarios are unlikely.

Lewis Hamilton is the 1.67 favourite and if it turns out that his closest rival will be Bottas, then it is not a bad price.

Possible Podium Spot Available?

With the possibility of Verstappen starting last, there could be a spot on the podium opening up in the 2021 Russian GP. Perez should fill the void, but he has only had two podium finishes in 2021, a very poor return for Red Bull’s investment. Lando Norris has had four podium finishes, Carlos Sainz two and one each for Leclerc, Ricciardo, Vettel, Gasly and Ocon. The record books say that Russell has one but no race, no podium in my opinion.

Norris is the obvious candidate. He is very consistent with a total of 10 top five finishes so he is usually there, ready to take advantage of any opportunities. McLaren will not be quite the force they were at the ultra-low downforce Monza, but they have Mercedes power unit which will allow them to be competitive around this track. Norris was competitive at both Monaco, with a podium finish, and fifth in Baku. Ricciardo, fresh from his win in Italy looks to be finally getting to grips with his McLaren, but this track is a bigger challenge than Monza.

Track To Suit Alpha Tauri

Pierre Gasly got his podium finish in Azerbaijan where he qualified fourth. The podium was made possible by the retirement of Verstappen and the fact that Hamilton dropped out of the frame at the re-start, but the Alpha Tauri is a quick car and should like this track as much as it did Baku. He has qualified top 6 ten times this year and finished top 6 in two of the last three races.

His teammate, Yuki Tsunoda, has been largely forgotten about but he has scored points in four of the last eight races and he didn’t get to start at Monza after suffering brake failure. His joint best qualifying of the season came at Baku and a good race and more points for him this weekend is a decent possibility.

Alpine have become much stronger since Ocon got his new chassis at Silverstone. They have enjoyed double points finishes in the last four races. Alonso has finished top 6 in two of the last three races and the team are optimistic that they will be more competitive this weekend than at Monza. Esteban Ocon has finished 7/9/7 in his three races here.

Power Units and Penalties

The problem with ante post betting at this stage of the season is that your best plans can be undone by power unit changes and the associated penalties. We know that Leclerc will start from the back, and that Verstappen might. They may not be alone. Teams may decide to take a hit if for example, they flop in qualifying, or crash in qualifying and are starting down the grid as a result.

Add to this a very bad weather forecast for Saturday and an uncertain one for Sunday and you have the perfect storm of uncertainty. It is hard enough at the best of times, but with these random variables thrown in, this looks like a race to avoid ante post betting.

Having a tilt at Sainz in qualifying is only worth it as the odds are insane. Sainz does have the reputation as good wet weather driver and if we do get both a wet qualifying and a wet race, the later less likely, we could have the ingredients for a surprise result. There are many reasons to say he can’t do it, and he probably will not, but if the odds are big enough, it is worth a minimum bet.

2021 Russian GP Tip: 0.5 point e/w Carlos Sainz to win the Russian GP @ 151.00 with William Hill (126.00 Betfred, Betfair)

Had things been set for a dry race there are three or four decent ante post bets, but with such uncertainty and the potential for race penalties after qualifying, this is a race for race day betting only, with the exception of mad odds.

-JamesPunt