2021 Russian GP Raceday Update

Carlos Sainz very nearly landed us a 150/1 winner on Saturday. Our tip for pole qualified in 2nd so we at least got a very tasty each way return. Let’s hope he goes one better on Sunday. Check out James Punt’s 2021 Russian GP Raceday update below.

2021 Russian GP Raceday Preview

The first thing to do is to check the weather forecast. Mostly cloudy, 19 degrees, dry but with a 40% chance of showers during the race. Nothing like the very wet conditions of yesterday morning and the F3 and F2 races ran this morning in perfectly dry conditions. Any showers would be light and a dry race looks likely.

That takes one random factor out of the equation but a mixed up grid makes this race a bit tricky to call. We have a strange looking front two rows and back two rows.

The front row features Lando Norris on pole position and Carlos Sainz, our 151.00 selection for qualifying and the race, alongside him. Norris said after qualifying that as happy as he was to be on pole, this is the last place he would have chosen to get it at. The long drag down to the second corner, the first proper corner, leaves the lead car open to attack by a car getting a tow off him. That car is most likely to be George Russell who starts third, directly behind Norris and on the ‘clean side of the track. Alongside Russell is Lewis Hamilton who blotted his copy book by crashing twice in Q3 and costing him pole position.

Mercedes Fastest In Dry

The Mercedes was the fastest car in the dry on Friday and Hamilton is still the favourite at 1.80, not much bigger than he was ante post. This is a track where overtaking is possible, especially on the first lap, but it does involve risk and Hamilton has his eyes focused on the World Championship. Yes, he wants to finally get his 100th race win, but he would give that up for another Championship.

Hamilton looked genuinely worried after qualifying yesterday. Starting fourth isn’t that bad but he knows that if he wants to win and maximise his advantage over Verstappen, he has to get past three cars without having an accident. The other three drivers will know that as well and that is why he is worried. The three guys in front are definitely racing to win, they want to win a race and do not give a fig about Hamilton. George Russell might be under some pressure to make it easy for next years teammate, but he may also want to lay down a marker and let Hamilton know what he is up against next season.

2021 Russian GP Raceday: Tricky For Hamilton

Those three drivers will make it difficult for Hamilton. If he wants to overtake, he will have to execute the move with precision and certainty. It would be a disaster if Hamilton was to have a collision with another car in a race where his rival is starting last.

There is also the matter of the cars behind. Winner of the last race, Daniel Ricciardo, and Fernando Alonso, one of the best starters in F1, right behind him. Again, they don’t care about Hamilton’s predicament, and they will be trying to overtake him on lap one. Hamilton is surrounded by threats. He has the fastest car, but he needs to be at the front to make the most of it. If he can have a clean start, he can make up a place or two at the pit stop, but there is no guarantee that he wins this race. Maximising his lead over Verstappen is the number one aim and that means finishing the race above going for glory.

Norris Not Without A Chance

Norris is 4.33 shot and if he can retain his lead at the start he has a chance, especially if he has anyone but Hamilton behind him. He has the same power unit as Hamilton and is something of a leveller, but the Merc is the quicker car and Hamilton can make up time at the stop. Our man Sainz really needs rain to have a proper chance. He is down on power compared to the Mercedes powered cars around him, but he is going to give his best shot and he is now a 15.00 poke, so he is a good lay if you got the 151.00.

Russell his taking a good game and wants to get his first ‘proper’ podium. The Williams is good in a straight line, but it doesn’t have the lap time to defend around the pit stop.

As qualifying was wet everyone has a free choice on tyre selection. Starting on Mediums is the likely choice, but a few drivers might have a go with the soft tyre at the start. That would help make up places on the opening lap and they might get a fortuitous safety car and make a switch to the hards. It is a gamble, but it will be interesting to see who, if anyone makes that choice. Some may choose to start on the hard tyre and go for a long first stint and then finish the race on a softer compound. That makes sense for a fast car at the back of the grid.

Big Names At Back

Verstappen, Leclerc and now Bottas (late decision to take a new PU) start at the back of the gird. Even with the hard tyre, they should be able to pass the Haas and Alfa Romeo’s and then jump the Alpha Tauri’s and a few others when the pit stops are made. Then they can have a softer tyre, on lower fuel and can attack the cars on older harder tyres at the end.

If Hamilton doesn’t take risks and find himself stuck in third or fourth place, he could find himself with a charging Red Bull at his rear come the end of the race. It is a strategy not without risks. The hard tyre would make the car tricky to drive in the cool conditions, but the hard tyre this weekend is from the softer end of the Pirelli range, and it must be tempting to have a go.

In the middle of the pack we have the two Alpha Tauri’s in 11th and 12th. A good qualifying for Tsunoda, but Gasly was furious with the team not giving him a new set of inters at the end of Q2. He knew he had a shot at pole in the mixed conditions and his car was quick on Friday. He starts 11^th but doesn’t get the usual strategic advantage of the choice of tyres being normally denied to the top 10. Both will be eying points and Gasly a top 6. He has finished top 6 in four of the last sevens he has completed, but he was starting higher up the grid than his average. Tsunoda is starting a couple of places higher up the grid than normal but remains a 3.00 shot for a points finish.

2021 Russian GP Raceday: Chaotic In Midfield

The big risk is that it is very chaotic in the midfield on this track. It is famous for first lap incidents. On average there has been 1.57 first lap retirements here and only twice from seven starts has everyone survived the first lap. It is likely that one or two drivers are going to have an early bath today. That makes betting here especially difficult as you can see a few decent bets in the wall within a few seconds. However, there are a couple worth chancing to modest stakes.

Esteban Ocon is in good form, finishing in the points in his last four races. He starts ninth, better than his average, yet his odds to finish in the points have dropped to 2.20 from 1.67. I would have thought they would have come in. Add to this the fact that he has a good track record, always finishing top ten in his three starts. If he survives the opening lap, he must have a decent chance of more points.

2021 Russian GP Raceday Tip: 2 point Esteban Ocon to finish in the top 10 @ 2.20 generally available

Tsunoda is a risker option, but the odds are bigger. The car is competitive on pace and again, if he survives the first lap, he can get some points. In three of his last four completed races he has made the top 10 and he is worth a small bet.

2021 Russian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Yuki Tsunoda to finish in the points @ 3.25 with Ladbrokes

The final bet is for which driver to set the fastest lap. With the chance that Verstappen, Leclerc and Bottas could run a Hard – Medium strategy, they should have the better tyre at the end of the race. We have seen Mercedes use Bottas to take a late stop to prevent Max getting fastest lap and we know that the Mercedes is the fastest cat this weekend. Bottas also has his brand-new Power unit and he loves this track. Bottas has set the fastest lap three times from seven here at Sochi.

2021 Russian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Bottas to set the fastest lap @ 4.00 generally available

-JamesPunt