2021 Ryder Cup Preview and Tips by James Punt
2021 Ryder Cup Preview and Tips
Whether you like golf or not, the Ryder Cup is one of the must-see sports events. It is a compelling sporting drama where the players get together to play as a team, to represent their country, rather than for personal glory. Hopefully the 2021 Ryder Cup lives up to expectations.
The Ryder Cup used to be a match played between the USA and Great Britain and Ireland. That became so one sided that it was agreed to expand it to include mainland European players from 1979 onwards. The changed worked and made the Ryder Cup matches much more competitive and the value of the product rocketed. Since the Ryder Cup became USA VS. Europe, it is the Europeans who have been more successful, winning eleven times, losing eight and drawing one.
2021 Ryder Cup: USA Usually Favourites
Almost every time the Ryder Cup is played, the USA start as favourites, home or away, despite Europe’s better record. The reason is world rankings. Team USA all play on the PGA Tour which is richer and gives the players more prize money and a higher world ranking. This year of example, the lowest ranked USA player is Scotty Scheffler, the world number 21. Europe have seven players ranked lower than Scheffler with Berndt Wiesberger ranked 61st.
World rankings are reflective not so much of talent, but how much money a player has won. If you play on the poorer European Tour, as Wiesberger does, you have little chance to get a top 10 world ranking. Nowadays most of the European players also play largely on the PGA tour. Some try and play both, but the draw of the big money means the Europeans must travel to the USA or go and live there and make occasional trips home. The message is that too much attention is paid to the relative world rankings. These guys can all play, but can they play in this format and under the unique pressure of a Ryder Cup?
2021 Ryder Cup: A Unique Event
This a very different event to even a major championship. Every other tournament these players compete in is as an individual. Yes, there is a World Cup of Golf but who cares about that? Who remembers who won that this year? This event is also the only time the players will be playing the foursomes and four ball better ball formats. It is common in amateur events, and they will have played it at collage, but as professionals, it is only in the Ryder Cup.
The first two days a total of eight foursome matches where the players play alternating shots, and eight better ball matches, where both players play the hole, and the best score counts. It is fair to say that the Americans are not great at the team part of the Ryder Cup, but they thrive on the Sunday when it is twelve singles matches. That is back to playing as an individual and the Americans are much more comfortable in that format.
Early Format Advantage For Europe
The Ryder Cup is decided on the Sunday, but it is set up on the first two days of team golf. It is rare for the Americans to go into the final in the lead. The Europeans just gel better and find playing with a teammate easier and more enjoyable. It helps that they get on with each other, something that cannot be said for Team USA. There is open hostility between Bryson De Chambeau and Brooks Koepka. DeChambeau, while popular with the fans, isn’t the best liked player with other players. Finding him a teammate who can get on with him will be one of Steve Stricker’s (the USA Captain) toughest tasks.
Koepka for his part has given an interview detailing why he doesn’t really like the Ryder Cup. He doesn’t like the routine, having to attend team meetings, not being able to do as he chooses and not just spending his time with ‘his’ people. He doesn’t like being part of a team. That said, his record is good, so he for one, seems to be able to park that when he gets onto the course.
History has shown that Team USA has a problem in the team format. The PGA tour isn’t the close-knit family of players as the European Tour is. Players by and large keep themselves to themselves, preferring to stay in their own little bubble of coach, caddy, wife kind of thing. The Europeans would tend to mix with each other après golf and they find it easier to bond with a teammate.
Europe On Top In Recent Years
It is ironic that it was Jack Nicklaus who was the driving force behind getting European players into the Ryder Cup to make it more competitive but now Europe have such a strong recent record that it is once again becoming a bit one sided. Europe have won nine of the last twelve Ryder Cups.
What about home advantage? Since it became USA vs. Europe there have been ten Ryder Cups played in the USA and USA have won six, Europe four. The last eight and its four each. The Europeans have won the last six Ryder Cups played in Europe. Home advantage has some effect, but it works much better for Europe.
This year will be a little different. Normally the home team has the bulk of the crowd, but the away team always have a vocal band of supporters to cheer on their team. Due to America’s current refusal to allow UK and EU nationals into the USA (the Ryder Cup team has been granted special permission), the European support will be minimal, a few ex-pats and the teams support crew. The environment will be as hostile as ever, but very one sided. That said, the women’s equivalent, the Solheim Cup, was played in the same circumstances and it was the European side which won.
The 2021 Ryder Cup Teams
On paper, the USA have the stronger team. They have eight of the top ten players in the World Golf Rankings. Colin Morikawa, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Bruce Koepka, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau and Xander Schauffele. They are joined by Jordan Spieth, Harris English, Daniel Berger and Scotty Scheffler.
Europe has the world number 1, Jon Rahm but the rest are all outside the top 10. Tommy Fleetwood (36), Tyrell Hatton (19), Berndt Wiesberger (61), Rory McIlroy (15), Victor Hovland (13), Paul Casey (23), Matt Fitzpatrick (27), Lee Westwood (34), Sergio Garcia (43), Shane Lowry (40) and Ian Poulter (49).
Team USA has the higher ranked team. If world rankings are your thing, then lump on the USA.
Experience
With the Ryder Cup being such a unique event, having experience of playing in it is valuable. The players are playing as a team but are under a great deal of pressure as individuals. Vomit inducing nerves are at the forefront from the first shot rather than the final putt. Having experience will help ease those nerves.
Team USA is lacking in experience. Half of their team are rookies and three more have played in just one. Only Dustin Johnson (4) and Jordan Spieth (3) and Brooks Koepka (2) have played in more than one.
Team Europe only have three rookies, four have played just once but the other five have played in 34 between them. Lee Westwood (10), Sergio Garcia (9), Poulter (6), McIlroy (5) and Casey (4). Team Europe are by far the more experienced team. A cynic might also say they have the oldest team with several players past their best. Certainly, Captain Harrington has gambled on experience over youth with his wild card picks of Garcia, Poulter and Westwood.
Team Europe have the more experienced team.
2021 Ryder Cup: Current Form
This is very much a stand-alone event, but you do not want to be coming into a high-pressure event in poor form. One of the reasons why the USA changed their selection system to allow their captain to have six picks, was to ensure that players in the best form could be selected. Europe have gone the other way with Harrington having just three picks and not four as was the case. The American system makes better sense to me. It is Harrington’s big gamble to use his three picks to go for experience over recent form. At least Garcia had shown decent form in his last two events, finishing tenth and sixth. Poulter missed the cut at Wentworth, but it is not a course he likes, and he has been showing flashes of form. Lee Westwood hasn’t mustered a top 30 finish in his last six events.
Of The USA’s captain’s picks, Finau and Schauffele have a recent tournament win under their belt, while English, Scheffler, Spieth and Berger have all had at least one top ten from their last six events.
Europe’s automatic selections are a bit of a mixed bag. Jon Rahm is flying with a win and four top 10’s, McIlroy has had a couple of top 4 finishes, Casey two top 5’s, Fleetwood a second place and a couple of top 20’s. However, Fitzpatrick and Hatton have just a top 20 and two missed cuts.
Team USA has the more in-form team.
The 2021 Ryder Cup Course
The home side’s captain gets to set the course up in the way he thinks will best suit his players and/or inconvenience the opposition. If your opponents have a lot of big hitters, you can bring the rough in in the areas where their drives are landing for example, or if you have the bigger hitters, you want to open up the landing areas.
Whistling Straights in Wisconsin is the venue. It has hosted three PGA Championships since 2004, so many of the players will be familiar with it. It is a very long course at 7790 yards and was designed (by Pete and Alice Dye) to mimic the links courses of Great Britain and Ireland, even down to importing Scottish Black Sheep to adorn the property. That would seem to favour the Europeans on the face of it, but the European Tour has very few true links on its rota. We have the Open Championship on links every year, but the Americans come over to play that and do very well it must be said.
The Americans have the bigger hitters in their side. De Chambeau, Johnson, Finau and Koepka are very long off the tee and Team USA have eight players in the top 40 for driving distance, Team Europe just three. I imagine Captain Stricker is going to make sure the course plays its full length and that there is a bit more room on the fairways.
USA has home field advantage.
Course Form
The 2015 USPGA Championship saw many of this USA side feature prominently. Spieth was runner-up, Koepka T5, Johnson T7, Finau T10, Thomas T18 and English T48. The best Europeans were McIlroy T17, Hatton T25, Casey T30, Westwood T43 and Garcia T54. Fleetwood, Wiesberger, Lowry and Poulter all missed the cut.
In 2010 Dustin Johnson (the sole Team USA player to compete in 2010) was T5, McIlroy T3, Casey T12. Garcia and Lowry missed the cut while Poulter withdrew in running.
Team USA has the better course form.
Who will win the 2021 Ryder Cup?
Team Europe have the better record in the Ryder Cup, despite rarely, if ever, having the best individual players. For that reason, I don’t put too much store in looking at the teams from a world rankings perspective, but it is still a positive for the USA.
Overall, the USA has the stronger team in terms of current form, and that is important. All of the USA players will be feeling pretty good about their game coming into the event while there are a few Europeans who are far from their best.
In terms of course form, again the USA hold the best cards. Dustin Johnson has two major top 10 finishes here with Spieth, Koepka and Finau all having a top 10. For Europe, only McIlroy has a top 10.
When it comes to event form, then it is Europe who are ahead. They have the more experienced team, and they are better at the team element to this competition. Will that be enough to overcome the lack of top form and course form? Up to a point. It may help them to getting a lead in the first two days. If that lead is a significant one, then the pressure is on the USA players to come up with the goods in the Sunday singles. If it is close after the first two days, or the USA lead, the USA should run out fairly comfortable winners.
Not Getting Any Younger
While Europe win out on experience, it is a worry about when the captains three picks were at their best in the Ryder Cup. Garcia was the Joint top overall points scorer in 2004 and 2006, tied with Lee Westwood. Poulter top overall points scorer in 2008, 2010 and 2012. In their last two Ryder Cup appearances Garcia has been 9th and 4th, Westwood 11th and 21st, Poulter 16th and 7th. They are not getting any younger…or any better.
My vote goes to the USA to win the Ryder Cup. Their relative lack of event experience is a concern, but that is balanced to some degree by the fact that they are playing at home. Better to be cheered to the rafters than jeered or booed by a hostile crowd.
The USA are best priced 1.54 and it is hard to say that is a value bet, just a fair reflection of their chances.
Handicap Betting
Since the Ryder Cup became USA VS. Europe in 1979 there have been ten events played in America. The USA have won six, Europe four. This century it is 2-2. The last time the Ryder Cup was played in the States was 2016. Three of this year’s current team also played in that event, which the USA won 17-11. Dustin Johnson, played four, won two, lost two. Brookes Koepka played four and won three, lost one. Jordan Spieth played five, won two, drew one and lost two.
Four of the current European teams played in 2016. McIlroy played five, won three, lost two. Sergio Garcia played five and drew two, won one and lost two. Westwood played three and lost three while Matt Fitzpatrick played two and lost two. Overall, the USA won 17-11.
The first two days of pairs matches is where Europe have traditionally done well. In the nine Ryder Cups this century, Europe have led going into the singles five times, USA three and it was tied back in 2002. However, on American soil, it is 3-1 to the USA and Europe have not held the led after the pairs since 2004.
Early Lead Usually Vital
This century the team that has held the lead after the pairs has gone on to win the cup seven times out of eight. Only in 2012 was the trailing team overturned a deficit going into the pairs. That was Europe in 2012 and the famous Miracle at Medina, so called as to overturn a four-point deficit into a win was indeed, miraculous.
It is interesting that Europe are so strong in the pairs on home soil, never trailing this century, but that they have trailed after the pairs in the last three Ryder Cups played on American soil. Europe’s success in the modern-day Ryder Cup has been built around the pairs format, but in recent years, the Americans have got the hang of the pairs formats, on home soil.
If this trend continues, the USA should not only win, but win comfortably. This century, at home, the USA has won the singles 7.5 to 4.5 three times. Only the freaky 2012 event saw Europe win the singles 8.5 to 3.5. In the last three Ryder Cups in the USA, the home team has won by 6 points in 2016 and 5 points in 2008. The Miracle at Median saw a 1 point margin of victory for Europe. Miracles are by definition, very unusual events, outliers, and I suggest that another USA win by a comfortable margin is much more likely.
2021 Ryder Cup Tip: 2 points USA to win -3 point handicap @ 2.40 with Betfair
Top Point Scorer
The favourite to be top overall points scorer market is always a good one. The trick is trying to guess which players are not only playing well enough to score lots of points, but who is more likely to get to play the full five matches. You can’t score while sitting in the clubhouse.
For the USA, I like the chances of Justin Thomas. He is a natural fit to partner with his best pal, Jordan Spieth. Thomas played in all five matches in Paris in 2018 and won four. Spieth has played in three Ryder Cups and averaged 4.7 matches per event. A Thomas Spieth pairing looks both strong and likely to happen. They played all four pairs matches in 2018 and won three. You don’t break up a winning team.
DJ Should do well
Dustin Johnson has very good course form and with his power hitting he will be a useful weapon to pair up with. He is the most experienced USA player and Captain Stricker may be tempted to pair him with some of the rookies which might not help his chances. He might also choose to pair him with DeChambeau. Johnson gets on with anybody and placing De Chambeau isn’t going to be easy. Johnson has played in four cups and played four matches on average. His win rate is a bit disappointing at 44% but given his recent form and course form, I expect him to do well.
Justin Thomas is the 7.50 favourite to be the top USA points scorer, Dustin Johnson 8.50 and Spieth 8.50. Spieth was runner up here in the 2015 PGA Championship so he has the course form to increase his chances, but his recent form isn’t as good as Johnson or Thomas and he may struggle in the singles.
2021 Ryder Cup Tip: 1 point Justin Thomas to be top USA points scorer @ 7.50 with Betfred, Pokerstars
For top European Scorer, Jon Rahm is the 4.50 favourite. He is the world number 1 and he is in great recent form with a win and four top tens from his last six events. He doesn’t have any course form to go on, but a very long track should suit his power hitting style. It is hard to see him not getting five matches. Not in his favour is a Ryder Cup record that says played three matches and won one. He is a better player than he was in 2018 and should improve on that but he lost both his better ball pairs and didn’t play any Foursomes.
The European with the best win rate is Tommy Fleetwood who has played five matches and won four. However, it was his pairing with Molinari in Paris which was the bedrock of that record, and he will have to find a new partner this time round. His form coming into this event isn’t great, it’s not bad either but he hasn’t had a great season. He missed the cut here in 2015.
McIlroy Has Course Form
Paul Casey and Rory McIlroy have played in two USPGA Championships here with both making the cut both times. McIlroy finished 3rd and 17th, Casey 12th and 30th. Both have two top 5 tournament finishes recently but Casey’s win rate is just 33% while McIlroy’s is 46%.
The old guard of Westwood, Poulter and Garcia have long and honourable records, but will they get all five matches? Westwood’s form is not good enough, Poulter course form poor and while Garcia’s recent form is good, his course form isn’t. Garcia might be a sensible choice to pair up with Rahm and he may be more likely to get the full five.
It is very difficult to get away from Rahm as the top European points scorer.
2021 Ryder Cup Tip: 1 point Jon Rahm to be top European points scorer @ 4.60 with Betfred
The last Ryder Cup saw Francisco Molinari as the top points scorer, winning five form five. Justin Thomas was tied second with four points along with Fleetwood. For the same reasons that I fancy him to be top USA points scorer, he makes sense in the overall market.
