2021 Spanish GP Tips and Preview

The nip and tuck battle between Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen goes into round four and the 2021 Spanish GP at Barcelona. The Circuit de Catalunya is usually the home of Formula 1 testing and drivers and teams alike know it inside out. The reason it is used as a test venue is that its combination of different types of corners and long straight tests the performance characteristics of the cars, highlighting strengths and weaknesses.

This will be the acid test for establishing the true form of the cars and a big pointer for future races. This race is traditionally the one where teams bring significant upgrades although that may not be the case for all teams this season, as they are looking more at their 2022 cars rather than having a development war whilst operating under a cost cap.

Mercedes Stronghold

In the turbo hybrid era, the Circuit de Catalunya has been a Mercedes fortress. They have won six of the seven races and the only year they did not was in 2016 when Rosberg and Hamilton took each other out on the opening lap, allowing Max Verstappen to take his first F1 race win in his debut race for Red Bull. Lewis Hamilton has won five of the last seven Spanish GPs and the last four in a row. Bottas has never won here but has finished on the podium for the last three years. It is clear who is the favourite to win this weekend.

Red Bull are closer to Mercedes this season than at anytime in the turbo hybrid era, but that obvious advantage they had in testing and the first two races has been eroded as Mercedes find ways to make the most of their 2021 machinery. Red Bull know that this is a big test for them. If they can compete with Mercedes at fortress Barcelona, then they are in the hunt for the Championship.

Portuguese Form May Not Stand Up

Last weekend’s Portuguese GP is probably not a good from guide. The track is just weird. The tarmac is very low on grip and the hardest compound tyres were not degrading in a ‘normal’ fashion. Hamilton was able to sit in behind Verstappen and not suffer the usual problem of the tyres sliding and overheating. One small mistake by Max and Hamilton was able to get close enough to the Red Bull to make an easy DRS assisted pass on the starting straight. For some reason, when Verstappen was trying the same thing on the Mercedes, he just could not get close enough to make the DRS pass. Perhaps he didn’t get enough charge into the batteries to maximise his speed down the straight.

Hamilton also chose to run with a different rear wing than Bottas. It gave him less drag which made it a bit trickier for him in the corners, but he was quicker in a straight line which made overtaking easier.

Uneasy Verstappen

Verstappen had not been at ease all weekend and finishing second was a decent result on a track where the Hamilton/Mercedes combination was just that bit better. Verstappen was making mistakes with track limits again. It cost him pole position and fastest lap this weekend and it is an area where he must improve. Hamilton managed his race well, not hounding Verstappen for the whole lap but waiting until turns 14 and 15 to close and be able to attack on the straight. That kept his tyres in good shape.

It seems that Hamilton is much more on top of the Mercedes than Bottas. The Finn struggles to get the tyres into their operating window and he set his car up accordingly in Portugal. That helped him in qualifying but hindered him in the race. Hamilton played the long game and was always looking for a set up which would give him the best performance in the race. This is a pattern which is likely to continue. Hamilton may not like having to look after the tyres, but he is very good at doing it and in a very close contest, maximising tyre performance can be the deciding factor.

2021 Spanish GP: Easier On Tyres

A return to a track where the tyres will be expected to degrade in a more normal fashion should level things up again and if the temperatures are on the high side, it could make the Red Bull the car to beat once again. If the Red Bull has a decent performance advantage, then Max can win, if it is close, Hamilton can outthink and outperform Verstappen.

The early forecasts agreed on Friday and Saturday being fine and sunny with temperatures in the low to mid-twenties. Sunday however sees disagreement. One model has a temperature of 21 degrees and a 25% chance of showers, the other 28 degrees and sunny. The former would be better for Mercedes, the latter Red Bull. Have reviewed the forecasts 24 hours later, they are converging on Sunday and agree that it will be 21 degrees with a 25% chance of showers. It will not be as windy as Portimão was last weekend which will be good news for Williams.

2021 Spanish GP: Who will the track favour?

We must expect Mercedes to be competitive on their strongest track in past seasons. However, this year, Mercedes may not have the best car, and this track rewards the best car. Red Bull seem to have the raw pace over a single lap, but things are closer over a race distance. The track is a rear limited one and this is an area where Mercedes have had some problems this season.

The track layout rewards aero efficiency more than anything else. This is an area where Red Bull have traditionally excelled, they had to as they have historically been down on power. The problem is that Mercedes is equally as good. This years Red Bull appears to be better in slower and medium speed corners, we will know for sure at Monaco, but if so, they will be rewarded in places here.

Red Bull brought a lot of aero upgrades to Portugal last week and with more data generated over the race, they are likely to understand those upgrades better this weekend and may be able to fine tune things on this aero sensitive circuit. A lot of aero upgrades on a very strange, windy circuit, may not have seen the new parts in their best light.

The track has been changed since last year with turn 10 reprofiled. It was only recently finished so we will have one corner with brand new tarmac and very likely a very different level of grip which might make the drivers think a bit. The corner is now less of an acute corner with a gentler arcing and a bigger run off area.

Past form at Barcelona

A venue that rewards the best all round package explains why Mercedes have dominated here in the turbo hybrid era. They have had the best car every year. Hamilton has only lost out to a teammate once in the last seven years, second to Rosberg in 2015.

Max Verstappen is the only other winner of this race in the turbo hybrid era. It was a fortuitous win, enabled by the front row starting Hamilton and Rosberg colliding on the first lap and retiring from the race. He has finished on the podium for the last three years, alongside Hamilton and Bottas. That was Verstappen’s first ever race for Red Bull and this weekend will be his 100^th race for Red Bull.

The top home driver here in the last seven years has been Carlos Sainz who has six consecutive top 10 finishes since his 2015 debut. Alonso has two wins at home but they were before the turbo hybrid power units came in. Since then he has just two top 10’s. Daniel Ricciardo had five consecutive points finishes here but missed out in the last two years in a Renault that struggled in Spain. Sebastian Vettel had three podiums and three fourth places before a lowly seventh last year.

Boring Reputation

This race has a reputation for producing boring races. The teams know it so well that finding the best set up is relatively easy, the more experienced drivers know every inch of the track and cars tend to qualify in order of relative performance, often in the Noah’s Ark, two by two, fashion.

The race has had a tendency to be over on Saturday with the pole position driver winning five of the last seven and it was the same in the pre turbo hybrid days. Qualifying is critical as it has been the case that wherever you qualify is likely to be where you finish, or not far off. In the last two years only one driver who qualified outside the top 10, finished in the points.

We have just three qualifying sessions to go on in 2021. Lewis Hamilton has the best record and an average grid position of 1.67, Verstappen 2.33, Bottas 4.00 and Perez 5.67. Hamilton, Bottas and Verstappen have had one pole position each. However, but for mistakes, Verstappen should have had all three pole positions. Lewis Hamilton is executing his laps better than Verstappen but if Max can put in a clean lap, he should get pole.

Max Verstappen is the 2.20 favourite for pole with Hamilton 2.25, Bottas 7.00 and Perez 15.00. In the turbo Hybrid era Hamilton has been on pole five times, never outside the front row and only been out qualified by Rosberg and Bottas. On historic form, Hamilton looks a good bet, but we know that Red Bull appears to have the edge in terms of one lap speed this year. We also know that Verstappen’s execution of his flying laps has not been flawless.

2021 Spanish GP: Best of the Rest

McLaren continue to cement their place in third place in the constructors and driver’s championship. The car seems versatile and Lando Norris is at the top of his game. Ricciardo continues to lack confidence in the car but coming to a circuit he knows so well might help him find the sweet spot.

He drove a good recovery race in Portugal after a disastrous qualifying but remains very much second best to Norris at this stage. On a qualifying sensitive circuit, it is interesting to note that Norris average grid position is seventh, but his average finishing position is fourth. That suggests he may have to settle for a lower finish this weekend.

Ferrari are tucked in behind McLaren, but they failed to get both cars home in the points in Portugal with Sainz unable to make his strategy work and his tyres went off late in the race. They should be able to get two cars back in the points here.

Alpine turned up in Portugal, getting their second double points finish and their two highest finishes of the season. One big worry for them is Alonso’s qualifying pace. If he is to get more points he will have to qualify in or very near the top 10. Renault had struggled here in the last two years and this weekend will be a measure of where they are heading.

Alpha Need To Deliver

Alpha Tauri are failing to make the most of a good car and they will need a good showing this weekend to get back on track. Gasly’s one lap pace could be well rewarded in qualifying and if so, he can score good points. Tsunoda will have raced here before but after his grand entrance in Bahrain, he has not impressed.

If the wind is moderate, we might see a better weekend for George Russell. His qualifying performances have been impressive for the last two races (12,11) and a repeat of that could mean he won’t be far away come Sunday.

Aston Martin will have the new upgrades ready for Vettel’s car as well as Stroll’s this weekend. However, Stroll had a very poor weekend in Portugal so how much that will help the struggling Vettel is open to question.

Ante Post Selections

It is too close to call in terms of picking the pole position driver or race winner. Another Hamilton – Verstappen 1-2 finish looks very likely and probably with Bottas third. That would be three in a row for those three on the podium but who will be first and second is another coin toss and reflected in the odds.

We have been losing money on Gasly to finish in the top 6 but he continues to tempt me. The one lap pace of the car stands a good chance of being rewarded here. He has had two fifth place starts so far, and the car just didn’t like the conditions in Portugal. In more familiar surroundings and benign weather hopefully, he can get a brake this weekend, if not, I give up.

2021 Spanish GP Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to finish in the top 6 @ 3.00 with Hills, Skybet

Ladbrokes have a ‘without the big 4’ market (no Mercedes or Red Bull drivers) and Charles Leclerc looks a decent call at 3.75. He is a good qualifier, better than Lando Norris, but he has finished second to Norris in this market in the first three races. Hopefully on a track where it is hard to improve on your grid position, he will finally get one over Norris.

2021 Spanish GP Tip: 2 points Charles Leclerc to win ‘without the big 4’ @ 3.75 with Ladbrokes

There will be more bets on race day but for now it is time to watch and learn as this weekend will be a huge form guide for the rest of the season.

-JamesPunt