2021 Spanish GP Raceday Update

Thinking about having a bet on the Spanish Grand Prix this afternoon? If so, make sure you read James Punt’s 2021 Spanish GP Raceday preview. He has outlined a number of value bets for today’s big race. Check them out below…

2021 Spanish GP Raceday Preview

The sad fact is that today’s race was very likely won yesterday. Lewis Hamilton may have been only 0.037 faster, but it might as well have been a minute. Such is the advantage of being on pole at Barcelona. Since the Circuit de Catalunya became the venue for the Spanish GP in 1991 the driver on pole position went on to win 22 races. That is a 73% strike rate which makes Hamilton’s true odds of winning 1.37. You can back him at 1.57, which is a value bet, but I am not tipping him because there must be a better bet somewhere.

The good news for Max Verstappen fans is that the driver starting second here has won five times, or 16.67%. True odds of 6.00. The bad news for Max Verstappen fans is that his best odds are just 3.25. That is a bad value bet. Valtteri Bottas? The driver starting third has won just once, as has the driver starting fourth and fifth. You can argue that 41.00 for a Leclerc win or 151.00 for an Ocon victory are value, but it is hard to make a reasoned case for either.

The reality is that Verstappen has two chances to win. Overtake Hamilton at the start or hope that Hamilton has a DNF. The fact is that in the entire turbo hybrid era, from 2014 to today, he has a grand total of seven DNF’s from 141 races, and none in the last 53.

Dirty Track

Overtaking on lap one? It is technically possible, but Verstappen is on the dirty side of the track which is a disadvantage. All the top 10 drivers will start on the same tyre, the soft, so he gets no advantage there either. The starting straight is quite long so there is a chance that he could slip in behind Hamilton, get a tow and try to slip stream him into turn one, without crashing. It is the second part of the equation which is particularly hard here. If you watched the F3 races here yesterday you will have seen how hard it is to race wheel to wheel in turns one and two.

We have seen these two go wheel to wheel already this season and there was a slight coming together at Imola, but they know its better to stay in one piece than to crash this early in the season. The one straw which Verstappen can clutch at is that he has improved on his grid position here for the last three years, but that is not enough to be taking 3.25.

The best of the rest market has moved in our favour thanks to Charles Leclerc qualifying fourth. In the turbo hybrid era the driver starting fourth has had finished 5,4,1,R,R,3 and 5. He looks in good shape in other words.

There are some interesting match bets around and a couple of group bets worth getting involved with.

Harder Tyres For Stroll

Lance Stroll starts from eleventh place, the second pole position. He has a free choice on tyres and is likely to go for a harder compound that the drivers ahead of him in the top 10 who all start on the soft tyre. That allows him to run a longer first stint and hopefully gain a place or two, finishing the race on a softer tyre. Stroll is also regarded as a good starter and even on a harder tyre he might be able to make a place up at the start. The others in his group are Gasly, one place behind him, Vettel, two places behind him and Alonso one place ahead and on the softs.

The Alpha Tauri is a mystery. It shows great pace in practice but stiffs in qualifying and that will hurt him here, but he is a contender at 2.75. Vettel continues to struggle in the other Aston Martin While Alonso has to make the soft tyre strategy work. Stroll looks a small value bet at the odds.

2021 Spanish GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Stroll to win Group 3 @ 4.00 with Ladbrokes  

At the same odds, Esteban Ocon makes some appeal to win his Unibet group where he is up against Sainz, Norris and Ricciardo. He starts ahead of the others in the group which is a big advantage on this track. Norris is back in nineth and Ricciardo seventh. The Alpine has made good improvements and their upgrades are working. They were the fourth quickest on the long runs on Friday, a fraction quicker than the McLaren and only a couple of tenths off the Ferrari. Hopefully having track position will prove to be king once again at Barcelona although Sainz will be a big threat on a track he goes well on.

2021 Spanish GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Ocon to win Group 2 @ 4.00 with Unibet

2021 Spanish GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Ocon to beat Norris @ 1.95 with Pokerstars

Daniel Ricciardo is yet to beat his teammate this season but today he starts two places ahead on the grid and on a track were overtaking is very difficult. He has a great chance to finally get one over Norris.

2021 Spanish GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Ricciardo to beat Norris at 1.90 with Unibet

Sergio Perez is not having a good start to the season. To add to his woes this weekend is that he has a shoulder injury. He didn’t blame his woeful qualifying entirely on the sore shoulder but said that it got worse as the session went on. Qualifying is a lot less intense than a 66 lap race and while he says he hopes to be 100% today, there has to be a question mark over fitness. He starts a lowly eighth, four places behind Charles Leclerc in the Ferrari. Leclerc hasn’t finished worse than sixth this season and Perez will have his work cut out to make up four places on this track, especially if he is sore.

2021 Spanish GP Raceday Tip: 2 points Leclerc to beat Perez @ 1.85 with Pokerstars

Ferrari are making good progress with their car and qualified both in the top 6 for the first time in quite a while. With track position being King here, they must have a decent chance of getting both home in the top six. Sainz is a very good round this track and Leclerc should be top 6 so long as he has a trouble free race.

2021 Spanish GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Both Ferrari’s to finish in the top 6 @ 2.20 with Unibet

The retirement rate so far this year has been low, two at Bahrain, three at a wet Imola and just one in a low grip Portimão. The DNF rate here in the turbo hybrid era has been a bit unpredictable but over 17.5 classified finishers would have paid out in four of the seven races.

2021 Spanish GP Raceday Tip: 1 point over 17.5 classified finishers @ 2.37 with Betfred

-JamesPunt