2021 St Leger Preview

After final confirmations on Monday just 13 remain in the 2021 St Leger. Hurricane Lane heads the market for Godolphin and Charlie Appleby. This prolific son of Frankel has tasted defeat just once from six starts. That reversal came in the Epsom Derby (12f gd/sft) when he lost his two front shoes. He has won the G2 Dante (10.5 gd), the Irish Derby (12f gd) and he annihilated the field by 6L in the G1 Grand Prix de Paris last time out (12f v sft).

His dam won over 16f and she is a half-sister to G1 winner Seal Of Approval. The way this horse stayed on to beat Lone Eagle at the Curragh suggested that further would suit. As did his win in the Dante. The only unknown for him is if it comes up rattling quick. However, he has handled pretty fast ground at York and the Curragh so it isn’t really a big worry. There is no doubt this horse deserves to be the market leader. He is most certainly the one they all have to beat.

2021 St Leger: Mojo Too Short

Epsom Derby runner up Mojo Star looks too short to me at around 7/1. Yes, he ran a blinder in the Derby but he was far from convincing next time at the Curragh behind Hurricane Lane. It wasn’t a terrible run but if you look at his overall form, Epsom does look like it might be a bit of a flash in the pan. He did win a maiden last time but Auriferous let that form down badly last weekend.

There isn’t much encouragement that he’ll stay 14f on the dam side of his pedigree. Consequently, I’m not sure whether the extra distance will eke out any more improvement. For me, the percentage call is to oppose at single figure odds. There is better each way value to be found elsewhere (hopefully!).

More Murtagh Magic?

The only other horse currently at a single figure price is Ottoman Emperor. Johnny Murtagh is having a stellar season so far. His son of Excelebration landed the G3 Gordon Stakes at Goodwood last time. He ran out a ready winner, hitting the front 2f from home and keeping on well. Although Sir Lucan stayed on to get 2nd, it never really looked like he was going to catch the winner. He has now won four on the spin and he deserves to have a crack at the top level.

However, his sire is not exactly renowned as a big stamina influence. That being said, he has produced a couple of decent stayers in Prince Alex and Just In Time, both who have won over the Leger distance. It didn’t look like this fella was stopping last time out and he is definitely a brave and gutsy sort. Is he good enough to beat an on song Hurricane Lane? Probably not. But if he stays the distance, he won’t go down without a scrap.

2021 St Leger: O’Brien Battalion

Aidan O’Brien has won this race on six occasions and Joseph won it last year with Galileo Chrome. Joseph has no runner this year, but his Dad has six entries and Donnacha runs Fernando Vichy. High Definition was supplemented for the race and I’m not surprised because Ballydoye’s original entries looked a fairly ordinary bunch compared to previous years. Yes, Interpretation has won three on the spin but he has yet to race in Group company. Sir Lucan does bring some solid form into the race. However, I would fancy Ottoman Emperor to uphold that Goodwood form with him.

The Mediterranean ran a nice race behind Yibir at York last time but he had the run of the race and the result probably flattered him. Previously he finished 7.5L behind Hurricane Lane in France, although the soft ground was a valid excuse. His last run on good saw him finish 0.75L behind Fernando Vichy over 10f at Leopardstown. That form does not look good enough and I’m not sure this trip will suit him.

It is hard to make a case for High Definition on his last two runs either. However, he got to within 2L of Hurricane Lane in the Dante and that probably persuaded connections to have a go. He’s not for me though and I am instead going to back a horse that finished 5L ahead of him in the Dante at over 5x his odds.

Beckett’s Charge Has Scope To Improve

Ralph Beckett’s last three Leger runners have all run blinders. He won it in 2015 with Simple Verse, he finished 2nd with Talent in 2013 and in 2008 Look here finished 3rd for him. It is some record and I don’t think Scope would be in this race unless Beckett thought he could be competitive. He has had just four career starts with one victory. That came on heavy at Newbury (8f) on debut when he got up in the shadow of the post to beat Mojo Star.

That was it for the season and he reappeared in a minor Novice heat at Newbury (10f gd/fm). He could only manage 2nd but he just got tapped for toe 2f out and he finished the race off very nicely. Beckett’s colt next ran in the Derby Trial at Lingfield (11.5f sft). Again, he lacked the gears possessed by Third Realm and Adayar but I thought he kept on fairly nicely all the way to the finish line.

On his last outing he ran in the Great Voltigeur (12f gd) he raced very prominently. Yet again, he just lacked a turn of foot late on but in the last 100 yards he began closing on the horses that had passed him and he was only 2.25L behind the winner at the finish. It looked like he was going to be left behind 2f out but he kept on galloping. It was a better run than his finishing position (5th) suggests and over 14f I think he could have the beating of Sir Lucan, Youth Spirit and The Mediterranean, who all finished just ahead of him. High Definition was 5L behind Scope in 6th.

Bred For The Job

Beckett’s former Leger 3rd Look Here is a half-sister to Scope’s dam Look So and he is by a top class sire in Teofilo. He has produced some seriously talented stayers, including the mighty Subjectivist. I think good ground or quicker will be fine for this horse, even though his win came on heavy. His two best performances, in my opinion, came on good at York and Newbury. Also, most of his siblings and his dam’s relations all acted on quick ground too.

On the form of that Great Voltigeur run, Scope surely has to be overpriced. He has less than a length to find with three horses chalked up at 25/1, 16/1 and 14/1. He finished 5L ahead of a horse priced up at 8/1 (High Definition) and he has already beaten Mojo Star who is 7/1. Annoyingly, Scope is still in a 12f Listed race at Chester on Saturday but presumably the decision was made on Monday to go for the big one. Given his form and his trainer’s St Leger record, at odds of 50/1 Scope is definitely worth a couple of quid e/w. However, as he is double entered, keep stakes on the smaller side in case he heads to Chester. 

2021 St Leger Ante-Post Tip: Scope e/w @ 50/1