2021 Styrian GP Preview and Betting Tips

Before we look at the 2021 Styrian GP, first we’ll have a brief look back at last week’s race. Red Bull beating Mercedes on a track where Hamilton was expected to hold the advantage, was a significant moment in the two championships. Verstappen was able to make a mistake and cede the lead of the race on the opening lap but came back with the undercut to retake the lead at his first stop. That completely floored Mercedes who had completely underestimated how powerful it would be.

That Red Bull were then able to make a second stop, handing back the lead to both Mercedes, and catch and pass them to win, was the Coup De Grâce. It was Barcelona revisited, but this time it was Red Bull toying with Mercedes.

All this was played against the background of the new flexi wing regulations and revised tyre pressure procedures, both expected to hurt Red Bull. Not a peep was heard about Flexi wings after the race, which says a lot.

Mercedes latest gripe is that Honda have improved their power units. The Red Bulls had fresh PU’s in France (Mercedes refreshed theirs in Baku) but these would be the same spec as previously used as no development is allowed during the season. Either Mercedes are saying that Honda are cheating or it is just a touch of sour grapes. A bit like the flexi wings complaint.

Straight Line Advantage For Red Bull

Whatever it is, Toto Wolff says that Mercedes can’t touch the Red Bulls on the straights anymore. That bodes well for Red Bull at this power sensitive track. It is the third highest circuit on the calendar in terms of altitude. In previous years, the Honda power units have performed well at the high-altitude tracks in Mexico and Brazil. Austria is not as high as those two tracks but if the same characteristics exist in the 2021 Honda PU, it many give the Red Bull a further slight edge.

Hamilton was sanguine about coming second in France. To be fair, after his performance in free practice, second was a good result. However, it was a defeat. It was Red Bulls third consecutive race win, and the momentum is now with Verstappen. Perez in the second Red Bull is now playing a full part in a two-pronged attack and it is Mercedes who are on the back foot. Over at Mercedes, all is not well. Mistakes are being made, judgements not so sure footed and they have a problem with Bottas.

Bottas Boils over In France

The faithful wingman was livid with his team on Sunday. Despite demanding a second stop for new tyres, he was left out on the track in a desperate attempt to delay Verstappen and help Hamilton hang on to the lead. Bottas is having a terrible start to the season and his team are not helping him. He and Mercedes are supposed to be deciding on whether to renew his contract before the second half of the season. However, the atmosphere is hardly conducive for harmonious negotiations. If Mercedes decide to drop him, they have an employee with a grievance driving the second car and that would be problematic.

The next two races will be held on Red Bull’s home track, The Red Bull Ring. First up is the 2021 Styrian GP, followed by the Austrian GP on the same track next weekend. It may be Red Bull’s own track and home race but in the eight races here in the turbo hybrid era, they have won just two races to Mercedes six.

Not A Happy Hunting Ground For Hamilton

It has not been a great track for Lewis Hamilton who has won twice here but he has often had to play second fiddle to his teammates. Rosberg won in 2014, 2015 and was on course for the hattrick in 2016 but for a last lap collision with Hamilton which cost Rosberg the win and handed it to Hamilton.

It was Bottas who won for Mercedes in 2017, dominating his teammate all weekend. In 2018 Bottas was on pole with Hamilton second. However, both Mercedes retired from the race with mechanical problems, allowing Verstappen to take the win. 2019 saw Bottas out qualify Hamilton once again, but both were out paced by Red Bull and Ferrari in the race, with Verstappen winning from Leclerc. Last year it was Bottas who won from pole position. Hamilton finally got the better of the Finn in last year’s Styrian GP, but he was helped by qualifying being wet. He took pole as Verstappen spun on his flying lap and Bottas only managed fourth.

Clearly Hamilton struggles with this track for some reason and while he is driving as well as he has ever done this season, Bottas must be fancied to get the better of him this weekend, and maybe next, if the team allow him to, and that is not a given.

2021 Styrian GP: Versatile Red Bull

Red Bull have a versatile car that is competitive everywhere. The Honda power unit is every bit as good if not better than the Mercedes and their driver line up is now at least a match for Mercedes. Verstappen has won twice on this track; one was inherited when both Mercedes retired but his 2019 win was on merit in what wasn’t the best car at that time. He has two other podiums here and now that he is in the best car, if only by a small margin, he starts as the joint 2.25 favourite with Lewis Hamilton.

On this track I would have to make Verstappen favourite on the basis that it is not a good track for Lewis. If you fancy Mercedes to win this weekend the better bet is Bottas at 11.00.

The race to be best of the rest is being led by McLaren. They look better than their current 16 point lead suggests. Daniel Ricciardo is finally getting up to speed with his new car and team. Also, Norris is maturing into one of the best drivers on the grid. He has scored in every race so far and only once outside the top 5. Qualifying pace of the McLaren isn’t great but the points get handed out on Sunday and they are very strong on race pace. This track has been a good one for Norris with form figures of 6/3/5. It hasn’t been so good for Ricciardo who has one podium from his time at Red Bull.

Ferrari Struggles  

Ferrari were alarmingly poor in France last week. Sainz qualified fifth, Leclerc a disappointing seventh but in the race both drivers just went backwards. Leclerc was forced to make a second stop as his tyres were so bad and he finished sixteenth, Sainz eleventh. Team boss Mattia Binotto says they were not entirely surprised by their flop in France. He said that the track exposed a weakness in their car which they have known about for two years.

It seems that high speed corners, on hard tyres, in hot conditions does not work for Ferrari. It is not something they will fix this year and it will be a recurring problem on certain tracks. Their excuse doesn’t entirely hold water, however. Leclerc finished on the podium at Paul Ricard in 2019, not sixteenth. Some are suggesting that the tyre pressure clampdown and increased PSI introduced last week may be the real problem. We shall see.

This track only has eight proper corners. While there are no really fast, long duration corners, there are three or four which might cause Ferrari some difficulty. There are also only a couple of slow corners on which Ferrari are strong. It doesn’t look a particularly bad track for Ferrari, but neither is it a strong one. The final four corners are fast and with air temperatures of around 30 degrees on race day, that could push Ferrari into an uncomfortable place.

2021 Styrian GP: First Two Sectors Fast

The first two sectors of the track are fast. Overall, it is a track, that despite being very short at 4.3 km, does reward power and straight-line speed. That is good news for McLaren who should be able to extend their lead over Ferrari. The Ferrari is still underpowered compared to the Mercedes power units. This forces them to run with less downforce which in turn makes it harder for them in fast corners.

Ferrari were also hurt by the rain that fell on Sunday morning, before the race. This washed a lot of the rubber off the track and left it green and lower grip than on Saturday. This weekend’s weather looks largely to be hot and dry so that should not be a problem here.

Alpha Tauri are performing well, at least in Pierre Gasly’s case. We backed him for top six in the early races and of course as soon as giving up on him he got a sixth in Monaco and a podium in Azerbaijan. He picked up a seventh place in France and if Ferrari have another off weekend, he may sneak another top 6. However, with Ricciardo finding his feet in the McLaren he may have to settle for seventh. Things are all a bit of a struggle for Tsunoda, but he is still learning the ropes. He has raced here in F2, getting a pole position and a second place in the feature race.

Aston Martin On The Up

One team who are on the rise is Aston Martin. They scored just five points in the first four races, but they have scored thirty-five in the last three. Two double points finishes should have been three but for Stroll tyre blow out in Baku. The good results on the street circuits could have been circuit related. But, they finished ninth and tenth last week on a regular track which is more reflective of their true pace. Qualifying pace remains poor, but their race pace/tyre management is allowing them to make up places on Sunday.

The team employed a tyre specialist from Bridgestone last year. He was partly responsible for helping Sergio Perez mastering the art of the long stint. Perez has taken that knowledge to Red Bull which is another added bonus for them. Aston Martin are a team worth backing, but the question is when? A double points finish can be backed at 4.00 ante post but if they qualify outside the top 10 on Saturday, those odds might grow, but the bookies should be getting wise to Aston Martins good race pace.

Aston Martin have opened a gap to Alpine and while the French team have scored points in all but the opening race, they have not had a double points finish in the last four. Alonso is getting better but their qualifying pace is lacking. They are in the same boat as Aston Martin, but just not as good with the tyres.

2021 Styrian GP: Weather Watch

The weather forecast is often important for races in this part of the world. The early forecasts were suggesting sunshine and showers, but this has been moving towards more settled weather. Hot, sunny and dry for the weekend now looks more likely with perhaps some rain on Friday, a 30% chance for FP1 rising to a 70% chance for FP2.

The forecast for Saturday is in dispute with some saying showers in the afternoon, others only a 5% chance. With hot conditions in a mountainous region, thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but I am leaning towards a largely dry weekend, Friday excepted.  

Ante Post Selections

Max Verstappen to win the 2021 Styrian GP: 3 points @ 2.25 with Ladbrokes, Hills, BET365

2021 Styrian GP Tip: Bottas to beat Hamilton: 2 points @ 5.00 with Ladbrokes

2021 Styrian GP Tip: 1 point Aston Martin double points finish @ 4.00 with Skybet

-JamesPunt