2021 Styrian GP Raceday Update

2021 Styrian GP Raceday Update by James Punt: Max Verstappen ended up a comfortable 0.194 ahead in qualifying yesterday, a healthy margin on such a short lap. Bottas was second quickest but his three place grid penalty for spinning in the pit lane on Friday means he starts fifth. That moves Hamilton up to second, Norris to third and Perez to fourth.

The pole sitter has won four of the eight races here in the turbo hybrid era. More interestingly is that the pole sitter has won just two of the seven races this season. Verstappen started at the front of the grid at Monaco, but he was on the second place grid position after Leclerc failed to take the start. On past and recent form, Verstappen is not nailed on but at least we got on at 2.25 and he starts as the 1.62 favourite.

Red Bull Strong

The Red Bull is the best car on this track and it is up to Verstappen to have a clean race and bring home the 25 points and an important ‘home’ win for Red Bull. As a team they are quicker at the pit stops (so much so that the FIA are to change the regulations to slow down everyone’s pit stops) and Mercedes have this problem of getting the tyres up to temperature on their out lap which does make them vulnerable at the stops, as we saw in France last time out.

Verstappen’s teammate, Sergio Perez, starts fourth which is important as he gives the team another weapon against Mercedes. The fact that Perez starts the race on soft tyres, as opposed the mediums on Verstappen, Hamilton and Bottas’ cars, means that they have a split strategy from the start and that again puts a bit more pressure on Mercedes. The softer tyre is quicker, and Perez could be quite racey on the opening lap or two. If he can get ahead of Hamilton, he could allow Verstappen to open a nice gap, out of DRS range and just manage his race to the finish. The soft tyre lacks durability, but if anyone can maximise their life span, it is Perez.

Norris Too Short

Lando Norris starts third and is as short as 26.00 to win the race. Norris is the only driver to have scored points in every race so far and he has finished in a higher position than his grid position in every race. That makes it sound like he has a chance but his average qualifying position before yesterday was exactly seventh, and his average finishing position is 4.71. His previous best starting position was effectively fourth in Monaco and he finished third. However in that race Hamilton was right off the pace in seventh, Bottas retired and the pole sitter never even started the race. He needed a lot to go his way that day. If two faster cars behind him, Norris will do well to just hold his position but more realistically he will finish fifth.

Pierre Gasly continued his good form by qualifying sixth. He has been quick all weekend barring his missed session in FP2. His problem is that he too has faster race cars behind him, and he has struggled to match his race pace to his qualifying pace. Three times he has started fifth and only at Monaco did he manage to hang on to finish sixth. Over the season he has dropped two places from grid position to finishing position.

2021 Styrian GP Raceday: Leclerc Could Edge Gasly

Leclerc has had his problems in recent races, but Ferrari have sacrificed qualifying pace for a better race pace this weekend and despite a lack of straight line speed, he should have a quicker car than Gasly today. Alonso is in eighth place and his Alpine was marginally faster than the Alpha Tauri on Friday’s long runs. Alonso has started to get to grips with the Alpine recently and has improved on his starting position in the last two races. He should get the better of Gasly.

Lance Stroll starts ninth for Aston Martin but our double points finish bet for them depends on Vettel having a great race from a disappointing fourteenth. They are good at long first stints which can make up places at the pit stop and Vettel has a free choice of which compound he starts on, so fingers crossed.

George Russell qualified eleventh but starts tenth thanks to Tsunoda getting a three-place penalty for blocking Bottas in qualifying. Is this the day when he finally scores a point for Williams? He was an impressive twelfth in France last week, a race where all twenty cars finished the race. He was very positive about his race pace on Friday but the number crunchers have Williams faster only than Haas on long run pace. However, he might get the attrition he needs to give him a leg up.

Testing Track

This race is usually quite hard on cars. On average there have been 3.75 retirements per race here (although all twenty finished in 2019) but with the removal of some of the harsh kerbs this year I expect fewer retirements as a result. Russell is best priced 2.50 for a points finish and that is thin on value. Russell does have a free choice on tyre compound which will help but the same can be said for Sainz, Ricciardo and Vettel who are all in faster cars behind him.

It is hard to say where the two Ferrari’s will end up. They say they won’t know how they get on with the tyres until we get into the race. Leclerc has generally struggled to improve on his qualifying positions and both drivers had a torrid time in the French race. Their race pace was said to be good on Friday and if they don’t have problems with the tyres then they could have both cars in the top ten but there have to be question marks over both.

Ricciardo had another Saturday to forget, qualifying thirteenth and seven tenths slower than his teammate. It seems he just can’t get the maximum out of the car when it comes to qualifying. That is when you need to push it to the limits and it seems he cannot get near that limit. In race mode, when the cars are slower, he is more competitive and his average finishing position is 2.5 better than his grid position. He is not out of the picture for a points finish, he has only failed to score points once this season, but best odds of 1.73 are only fair.

Vettel Could Sneak Into Top 10

Sebastian Vettel starts fourteenth, his worst qualifying since the opening race in Bahrain. However, in the last three races he has improved his average qualifying position of 10.33 into an average finishing position of 5.33, so he is not out of the equation for a top 10.

The driver who is most out of position is Esteban Ocon. He failed to get his Alpine out of Q1 and starts just seventeenth. Alonso showed what the car can do by qualifying ninth. Ocon was at a loss to explain his lack of pace and his good run of form from race two to race five has evaporated.

2021 Styrian GP Raceday: Will It Rain?

The race is expected to be a one stopper but everyone is talking about rain. My forecasts have been consistently disagreeing all weekend than while there has been downpours outside of the F1 track times, the forecasters saying no rain for the four sessions so far, have been right.

The same forecasters are saying that light rain will hit the area about fifteen minutes before the start of the race, turning heavier bang on three pm local time for the start of the race and lasting for two hours. However, the rain is more likely to be over the hills and may stay there. Former F1 official forecaster Steffan Dietz says the chances of rain are 30-40%.

Obviously rain can change things dramatically. One driver I like in the wet is Carlos Sainz. He has a great feel for the grip in wet conditions and he stuck his McLaren into third place in the wet qualifying session here last year. In this years rain affected Emilia Romagna GP at Imola he made up six places from eleventh to finish fifth for Ferrari.

I will make one ‘rain bet’. If it does rain Sainz is worth a point to finish in the top six. However, I would advise leaving this as late as possible. If there is no rain it is a no bet as in a dry race it is a loser.

2021 Styrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to finish in the top 6 @ 6.00 generally available (if wet)

Another driver who likes wet conditions (but is unfashionable and good value as a result) is Lance Stroll. He put the Force India on pole position on a damp and very slippery Istanbul track last year and lead the race in wet conditions until he picked up damage to his front wing which in turn damaged his tyres and he faded to ninth place. Interestingly, Carlos Sainz finished fifth in that race from fifteenth on the grid, making up more places than anyone.

Even in the dry, Stroll has some sort of chance of making up places in the dry. The car has shown good race pace and Stroll is on average making up nearly three places per race on his grid position. With a bit of attrition he could make the top six in the dry, in the wet that would become a decent chance.

2021 Styrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lance Stroll to finish in the top six @ 10.00 with Skybet

Ladbrokes group 1 has Gasly as 2.30 favourite to beat Leclerc, Ricciardo and Alonso. As mentioned earlier he tends to fall back in the races by exactly two places on average. Leclerc has also lost 2.16 places on average but strip out his two poles on the street circuits and that becomes a net gain of 0.34 places. Strip out his sixteenth place finish in France and Leclerc’s average FP is 4.80.

The problem here is we don’t know if Ferrari are going suffer with the tyres in the same way as they did in France. Leclerc is confident that he can score good points today and the car looks to be set up with more downforce to help with tyre wear. Ferrari’s long run pace was said to be 0.3 faster than Alpine and 0.16 faster than McLaren.

2021 Styrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to win Group 1 @ 3.50 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt