2021 USPGA Championship Preview by James Punt
2021 USPGA Championship Preview and Tips
The venue for the 2021 USPGA Championship is the famous Ocean Course, Kiawah Island in South Carolina. It was the venue for the 1991 Ryder Cup, otherwise known as the ‘War on the Shore’. It has also hosted this championship before, in 2012, which was won by Rory McIlroy who got back to winning ways two weeks ago. There have been two World Cups played here and those were won by Ireland and South Africa. Two countries with plenty of windy, coastal courses.
This will be the longest course ever used for a major championship and it is regarded as one of, if not the hardest course in the United States. At first glance, the course looks like a British Isles links course. However, it does not play like a true links course. The true links courses are firm and fast and best played on the ground, using the contours of the course to find the target, a much more low flight, running game.
Aerial Route To Greens
This course features many elevated greens or greens protected by hazards in front of them. Those two things remove the ability to run the ball onto the greens. Thus, the players will need to play the more normal, American aerial route. In the wind that could be very difficult, but the forecast is for reasonably benign conditions. Scoring is expected to be reasonably low.
Another unusual feature of the course is that both the fairways and greens are made up of Paspalum grass, a coastal grass that holds the ball making the ball run less and the greens a little slower than the usual tour venues.
Along with the usual requirement to be in good current form this course is likely to favour the longer hitters. The PGA may choose not to play from the very back tees but it will remain a long course. The fairways are reasonably generous but really wild tee shots can find trouble. Having experience of the type of grass used will help.
The USPGA has thrown up many first time major winners and in the last ten there has been one winning favourite, one joint-favourite, but three players at 151.00 or bigger. We backed Colin Morikawa last year and he was another of those first-time winners.
Outright Selections
Rory McIlroy is the ante-post favourite for the 2021 USPGA Championship. He won this event on this very course in 2012 and after a dry spell, he returned to the winners’ enclosure at the Wells Fargo tournament at his beloved Quail Hollow, two weeks ago. He has been working with a new coach and obviously, that is paying off. Will a return to another course where he has won before inspire him to his first major win since 2014? It is tempting but favourites are rarely great value in this event and at 12.00 his odds are a bit short.
One player who stands out in terms of form and winning experience on Paspalum grass is Norway’s Victor Hovland. He is only 23 but he is a proven winner, has the game for the course and has won twice on Paspalum. He also thrives on coastal courses having won the US Amateur Championship at Pebble Beach and both his tournament wins came on coastal courses. Hovland was 6th in Saudi Arabia earlier this year, another coastal course with Paspalum grass.
The Norweigan is in great form, third in his last two tournaments, and he is making great strides in his putting and short game, his weakest link last year. The result is that he is mixing it with the big boys on a regular basis and he is now number 11 in the World rankings. Surely, he is ripe for a good run this weekend.
2021 USPGA Championship Tip: 1 point e/w Victor Hovland @ 23.00 with William Hill (e/w 1-9)
Another player in great form is Sam Burns. His last three tournaments have seen finishes of 4/1/2. That has moved him up to fifth in the FedEx rankings and the big-hitting young American will be feeling very confident right now. His last eight rounds have seen him at 39 under par! He has the power required on a long course and despite his relative lack of experience, I am happy to follow a form player at a decent price.
2021 USPGA Championship Tip: 0.5 point e/w Sam Burns @ 61.00 with BET365 (e/w 1-8)
For a real long shot who might have a decent run at huge odds, recent tour winner with form on Paspalum grass, we have Joel Dahmen. He won the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship in March. It may not have been one of the strongest fields of the season, but it is another coastal course and he has form at the Marakoba Golf Classic which features Paspalum grass, finishing tied sixth in 2019 and tied twentieth in 2020. It might be worth putting a bit of loose change on him on the exchanges and hope for a good start and a layoff. He finished tied tenth in this event in 2020.
2021 USPGA Championship Tip: 0.25 point Joel Dahmen @ 540.00 with Betfair Exchange
2021 USPGA Championship Side Markets
In terms of recent form, Mexico’s Abraham Ancer catches the eye. He was runner up to Rory McIlroy at Quail Hollow last time out, fifth at the Valspar Championship the week before and tied eighteenth before that at the RBC Heritage. He has ten top 20 finishes this season. While he is more of an accurate player than a bomber, good form is good form. With two top 10 finishes at the Paspalum seeded Grand Reserve C.C., he has form on this unusual grass. Ancer is not a winner on the main tour and only won once on the Korn Ferry Tour back in 2015. So, I’ll take a less ambitious tack and back a top 20 finish for a bigger stake.
2021 USPGA Championship Tip: 2 points Abraham Ancer to finish in the top 20 @ 3.00 with William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair
One interesting side market is to be the best left-handed player. There are only five lefties in the field this year and the favourite is American, Brian Harman. He is in decent form with form figures of 3/5/12/13/18 for his last five events and is the 3.00 favourite. Bubba Watson is the 4.00 second favourite but his recent form in this major is very poor (last four 60/MC/MC/MC/71). Phil Mickelson is the 10.5 outsider but the two that interest me are Rob McIntyre and Garrick Higgo.
Higgo has been in great form on the European Tour, winning two of his last two tournaments with two other top 10’s in the last four. The fact that they were weak fields does devalue them a bit, but he is worth considering at 4.33. It is his major debut, and he might be a bit awestruck.
At a slightly better price, the more experienced McIntyre makes the most appeal. He is in decent form himself, in stronger events (9/12/59/8) and he has acquitted himself well in his major appearances. He has made all four cuts and was twelfth in the Masters earlier this year and sixth in the 2019 Open Championship. McIntyre is up to number 45 in the world rankings and a Ryder Cup team contender.
