2022 Ascot Champions Day Preview and Tips – DS
2022 Ascot Champions Day Preview And Tips
After Friday’s highs, Saturday was the comedown of all comedowns. Band Of Steel was outclassed and Mehme was ridden exactly as I hoped but wasn’t good enough. Marbaan was very disappointing and Zarzyni just couldn’t get into the race. Bascule was coming with a run but got badly hampered twice. I think he would definitely have placed with a clear run. We are back in action tomorrow, 2022 Ascot Champions Day tips are below.
1.25 – Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2)
With no Kyprios in town, another stayer will have a chance shine in this 16f Group 2. Trueshan has taken the last two renewals and he is fav to add a third. He found Coltrane too good here over 18f last time out and before that, he got to within 1.5L of Kyprios when 3rd behind him and the now retired Stradivarius at Goodwood.
On the figures, he should be beating most of these but the Leger winner Eldar Eldarov is only rated 7lbs inferior and he gets 9lbs from Alan King’s horse. That allowance should have him right in the mix but only one 3yo has won this in the last 20 years (Akmal in 2009). Waterville steps up from handicap company after an extraordinary win in the Irish Cesarewitch. This looks his best trip but again, the record of 3yos in this race has to be a worry. Conditions look ideal but this is a huge rise in class.
Wordsworth has a few bits and pieces of form that would give him a chance. James Doyle rides but he’ll most likely set a strong pace for his stablemate. Quickthorn and Coltrane both have place claims but there isn’t enough juice in their prices to warrant a bet for me. Trueshan will probably win but I’m happy to sit this one out. No bet.
2022 Ascot Champions Day tips: no bet
2.00 – Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1)
Eighteen are due to line up in the stalls for my favourite race of the meeting. We backed Donjuan Triumphant at 33s in 2019, Brando was beat a nose for us at 80s in 2020. This year, I am going to take a chance on two horses.
My first pick is going to be Castle Star. We backed Fozzy Stack’s 3yo last time out at the Curragh. He was travelling best of all 2f out but unfortunately, he got no run whatsoever. This step up to 6f will suit (beat 0.5L by Perfect Power on his last start at the trip) and this easy ground will be ideal. Spencer gets another shot at the title, hopefully he can thread the eye of the needle this time at odds of 22/1.
Freedom Too Big
My second selection is Run To Freedom. Henry Candy trains this 4yo son of Muhaarar and he looks an absolutely massive price at odds of 80/1. His sire dotted up in this race back in 2015 and this horse is no forlorn hope to follow in his hoofsteps. He lost his way somewhat last season but Candy was running him over 7f. He does stay that far but the drop back to 6f has turned him inside out.
After 9 runs over 7f, he finally got a run over 6f in a Kempton handicap last October. He won that easily off 90 and then was beat a short head off 6lbs higher over the same C&D. This season he made a grand reappearance when 4th behind Double or Bubble at Newmarket. A Listed Windsor win followed (6f gd) before he ran with plenty of credit when beat just over 3L in the Platinum Jubilee over today’s C&D.
Travelled Well
His sole poor run this term came on his penultimate outing when beat out of sight over 7f at Newbury. He left that well behind last time out in first time cheekpieces back at Ascot, running a massive race to finish just 2.5L behind Rohaan (6f gd/sft). Run To Freedom travelled extremely well in that race and I think David Probert just got there a furlong too soon.
Once his charge hit the front, he just didn’t have enough left in the tank to kick on and he ended up finishing 4th. Dane O’Neill is reunited with Run To Freedom now and the cheekpieces are retained. Hopefully Dane can time his challenge just a little bit better today and if he does, a place is not out of the question at odds of 80/1.
2022 Ascot Champions Day tips: Run To Freedom e/w @ 80/1; Castle Star e/w @ 22/1 (both 5 places)
2.40 – Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes (Group 1)
A race that has been dominated by 3yos in recent years. Seven of the last eight winners have been that age and we have five 3yos gunning for glory this year. Emily Upjohn, an agonising 2nd in the Oaks, is the 4/1 favourite. She flopped over this C&D on fast ground last time out though so connections will be hoping the return to a kinder surface and the first time hood spark a revival. There are too many risks attached to be lumping on her at odds of 4/1.
While it is a worry that Colin Keane stays in Ireland rather than riding Thunder Kiss, it could prove to be a nice ride for Gary Carroll. This 5yo has an excellent record in stakes company on soft ground at 12f. The daughter of Night Of Thunder has had five runs in her career at 12f on yielding or softer and her form figures read 12112. The last 2nd came in a G3 at Leopardstown where she missed out on victory by a short head (12f sft).
Duke De Sessa subsequently ran a cracker in a Longchamp G2, beat just 0.75L. Perotan was 2L back in 4th and she was only 3L behind Sea La Rosa (6/1 here) on her next start at Longchamp. Thunder Kiss was only 0.75L behind Rosscarbery (16s here) on her previous start in the Pretty Polly (10f sft) and if that race was 12f, she’d have beaten her. All things considered, Thunder Kiss is surely worth an interest e/w at odds of 50/1.
2022 Ascot Champions Day tips: Thunder Kiss e/w @ 50/1 (4 places) nb
3.20 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1)
A lot of fingers were burnt when Inspiral was beaten at Newmarket in July. Sent off at 1/7, a procession was expected but Prosperous Voyage proved too good. The Gosdens’ filly got back on track last time, edging out Light Infantry at Deauville by a neck. The form of that race worked out well, with the 3rd Erevann beating The Revenant in a G2 next time out. He was 0.5L behind Inspiral and he beat The Revenant by 1.5L so on that form line, Inspiral should be beating the Graffard horse (6/1 today).
Jadoomi has progressed rapidly this season. He’s on a four timer after wins in France (listed), Goodwood (G2) and Leopardstown (G2). He came up short in a G1 last season but that was on heavy. This easyish ground will suit him a lot better though and odds of 8/1 look more than fair about the son of Holy Roman Emperor.
Course Form
One that could sneak into the frame at a decent price is Tempus. Archie Watson’s son of Kingman has taken his form to a new level this year. The late blooming 6yo spent over a year off the track before returning with a win at Newcastle. He didn’t run so well on his next four starts but he bounced back with a huge effort in the Hunt Cup at Ascot, finishing 3rd off 101. A win over the same C&D soon followed off 103 and a couple of G3s were added at Deauville and Salisbury.
Last time out Watson stepped his charge up into G2 company and while his winning sequence was ended, he ran really well to get to within 1.5L of the winner considering how free he was. He also didn’t enjoy the clearest of passages. His form figures over today’s C&D read 131 and once he isn’t too keen, Tempus could outrun his odds of 20/1. Hopefully Hollie Doyle can sneak him into the money.
2022 Ascot Champions Day tips: Tempus e/w @ 20/1
4.00 – Champion Stakes (Group 1)
Baaeed bids farewell to racing in this G1 and he’ll likely bow out with another win. It is a huge shame that he didn’t go to the Arc because he would have won it easily. As we saw last time, the step up to 10f brought more out of this mighty horse and another 2f would have likely done the same. However, connections have decided to stick to 10f and the ground should be absolutely fine. Obviously, I won’t be backing him at 1/4 but I hope he wins because he has been an absolute joy to watch this year.
Adayar swerved the Arc too, presumably because of the ground. The Derby winner is clearly a top class horse on his day and if Baaeed has an off day, Charlie Appleby’s inmate looks by far the most likely to take advantage. Dubai Honour ran a huge race in this last season behind Sealiway. He has yet to get his head in front this year but he has run well in defeat. However, he was 9L behind Baaeed at York two runs back and a repeat hammering could be on the cards.
pacemaking duties
I was amazed to see Aidan O’Brien using a horse as good as Stone Age as a pacemaker last time. Seamie went a mad gallop yet this talented son of Galileo was only beat 2.75L for the win by Luxembourg. He was a neck behind Mishriff and only 1L behind Arc runner up Vadeni so it was a seriously good effort considering how he was ridden. If he was ridden more sensibly, you could argue he might have gone very close to winning.
This afternoon he has no stablemates to set the tempo for and stable jockey Ryan Moore gets the leg up. Obviously, Baaeed is a cut above all of these and if Adayar runs to form he should finish 2nd. There isn’t a whole lot between the rest of them ability wise and on that Leopardstown form, Stone Age looks more than capable of finishing 3rd if ridden with a tiny bit more restraint. 66/1 looks huge and at those odds, a small e/w interest is warranted.
2022 Ascot Champions Day tips: Stone Age e/w @ 66/1
4.40 – Balmoral Handicap (Class 2)
I would have preferred to get the 25s that was available earlier this week but even at 16/1, Rhoscolyn looks worth a bet here. We last backed this fella at the Royal Meeting when he ran a massive race for us in 3rd off 103. He was denied a clear run and finished off really strongly and he was only a length off the winner at the finish.
Since then he has been running well and his best effort came three runs back at Goodwood. In that 7f handicap he was only a short neck off the winner I’m a Gambler and he has since won another Leopardstown handicap off 3lbs higher and a Listed race at Redcar. Rhoscolyn finished 5th in that Irish race off 102, 2.5L behind the winner when again denied a clear passage.
Last time out here over 7f the son of Territories again shaped nicely. He only finished 10th but he stayed on nicely and was only 5L behind the winner Escobar. This horse clearly likes Ascot and I would imagine this race has been on David O’Meara’s mind for some time. James Doyle has an outstanding strike rate for these owners (6/11 with 3 2nds) and at odds of 16/1, hopefully he can make it 7/12 today.
